I am also a fan of a team that seemingly is having a very fast rebuild. The Calgary Flames, though not fully rebuilt yet, seem to be much farther ahead of their neighbors to the North. Though the Oilers and Flames are bitter rivals, I have many friends who are diehard Oilers fans and I try to take an academic approach to their plight.
I will use the Flames as chief comparison because that's the team I know best and they are an easy team to compare methods of rebuilding with. I will also bring in my other teams that I know well to as examples. The Timberwolves are the best example I have from another sport, mostly due to their apparent inability to move forward as a franchise, but basketball and hockey are still different sports. All sports are different especially when it comes to team construction but basketball and hockey at least have the fluid, up and down nature to the games.
Background
The Oilers have not made the playoffs since the 2005-2006 season. Astute readers will note that that was quite a few years ago. This drought is the longest in the NHL and doesn't seem to be ending anytime soon. This 2005-2006 season is notable in for the franchise in other ways. They went to the Stanley Cup Finals in this season, losing to the Carolina Hurricanes in 7 games. This was a remarkable run because the Oilers entered the playoffs as the eighth seed, accruing 95 regular season points. Though this is more of an aside, I still find it interesting that the Oilers earned between 89 and 95 points a season starting from 2000-2001 and ending in 2005-2006. This is a difference of 3 total wins in 5 seasons and resulted in teams that were either the last team out of the playoffs or the last team in (minus the 2000-2001 season in which the Oilers were the 6th seed). All that to say, from 2000 to 2006, Edmonton was in a sort of purgatory, not good enough to challenge for a Cup, not bad enough to be in position to grab an instantly useful young player. The counter, of course, is 2005-2006 when they went to the Finals, though it could be argued quite strongly that they were closer to the 14th best team that the league standings said they were than the 2nd best team that the playoff results said they were.
Additionally, the Fall of 2006 is when I moved to Calgary, and Edmonton has never been the same since (Sorry! [Not Really]).
Anyway, this purgatory is uncomfortable. I know because that's all I felt as a Flames fan until last year. For whatever reason, the wheels fell off in 2006-2007 with the Oilers capturing 71 points and earning a 25th place finish in the league. They rebounded soon thereafter, finishing 3 points out of a playoff spot in 07-08 and 6 points out in 08-09. However, in 2009-2010, the Oilers dropped to 62 points, last in the league and 23 points lower than the year previous. They were also 12 points back of the 29th place team. This began a run of mediocrity that has lasted until this season, finishing in the bottom seven each year and the bottom three 4 times.
Each year, the cry is the same, "This is the year! This is the year that all of our high picks come into their own." After all, that's how the draft is supposed to work, high draft picks are the best young players available, put on the worst teams to give them a boost. Then you just build smart around those young players and then you're back contending for a Cup. Except that that hasn't happened. Despite THREE STRAIGHT number 1 overall picks for Edmonton, and numerous other high picks, they still toil at the bottom of the standings.
This will be a multi-part series examining different aspects of the Oiler rebuild, including drafting, free agency, and coaching/management. I am not a hockey expert, though I do believe that I can speak intelligently about such topics. I also hope to propose solutions in each area, though lack of expertise may make some of my suggestions sound naive.
Let's go.
Part 1: Draft Day (I love the draft. Draft draft draft)
Flamesnation.com, the site I most often frequent for NHL (read Flames) news, put together some number concerning the probability of drafting a "decent" NHL player in each round of the draft (http://flamesnation.ca/2011/2/25/how-important-are-draft-picks). This was written in 2011 about the drafts from 1996-2005 but will certainly be sufficient for my purposes. They defined a "decent" player as one who had played over 300 NHL games, assuming that only players that are good enough to play that long will play that long, which seems logical to me. Jason Gregor discovers that 60.5% of the players drafted in the first round became decent NHL players and proceeded from there, 2nd round: 23.7%, 3rd round: 15.8%, 4th round: 8.6%, 5th round: 7.1%, 6th round: 9.1%, 7th round: 9.7%.
It's an interesting idea, to break it down into percentage of success, but I feel like it's a bit simplistic.. After all, if you have 10 straight number one overall picks, is it reasonable to be happy if only 7 become decent NHL players? I'd say not but that's just me. If your pick doesn't work out, it doesn't really matter if he was likely to or not, the only thing that really matters is that he didn't. This might be me nitpicking, though.
The way I see it, 1st round picks should be expected to be impact players on their respective teams, 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks should be expected to provide quality play in whatever role they're in, and 5th, 6th, and 7th round players should not be expected to make an impact but should be pleasant surprises if they pan out. This is a gross generalization, and we should not be shocked if not every first rounder makes it (draft busts exist for a reason), but I think these expectations are generally true.
When examining the Oilers draft picks, I will look at the first 4 rounds from the 2006 to 2011 NHL drafts and see what the team did with those assets. As far as I am concerned, the issues with the Oilers are currently depth forward play and defense. Defense encompasses both the defensemen and the forwards, though obviously defensemen have a larger direct impact (I will analyze formation and actual game strategy in the coaching part).
What follows is this list, but you could easily skip it and I'll summarize at the end.
[Draft data taken from oilers.NHL.com, stats from hockeydb.com]
2006:
2nd round (45 overall): Jeff Petry (D) - Still with team (current season: 35 games, 8 points, -20)
3rd round (75): Theo Peckham (D) - In system (currently ECHL, not on active roster) (160 NHL games, 17 points, -15)
They drafted two defensemen with their only two picks in the first four rounds, Peckham is out of the league and Petry is still a contributor but part of a very bad defense. Petry spent half of his second professional season in AHL, then he was a mainstay in the NHL.
*Plus/Minus has flaws as a stat, but can be used to get a general idea of success. The extremes are telling, plus/minus stats around zero have a lot of noise*
2007:
1st round (6): Sam Gagner (F) - Traded offseason 2014 (currently Arizona), 481 games with EDM (current season: 35 games, 17 points, -4)
1st round (15): Alex Plante (D) - No longer in league (currently Austria), 10 games with EDM (Totals: 10 games, 2 points, -1)
1st round (21) - Riley Nash (F) - Traded offseason 2010 while in NCAA (currently Carolina), never played for Oilers (Current: 36 games, 17 points, -4)
4th round (97) - Linus Omark (F) - No longer in league (currently KHL), 65 games with EDM (Totals: 79 games, 32 points, -27)
With three first round picks, they drafted one that actually played for them. Gagner was the first high draft pick for this team and the first to completely bypass the AHL. General sense I got from Oilers fans is that he was functional but that he was not very useful for the current team and were not sad to see him traded. Plante made no impact on the team and Nash was traded away and looks like he may become a decent pro, if not an impact one. Omark played most of his rookie season in NHL but then saw only spot duty until he left the NHL
2008:
1st round (22): Jordan Eberle (F) - Still with team (Current: 35 games, 20 points, -14)
4th round (103): Johan Motin (D) - No longer in league (currently Sweden), 1 game with EDM (Totals: 1 game, 0 points, 0).
Again, there are only two picks in the first four rounds and one of them was used on Motin, another defensemen who did nothing for Edmonton. He played a couple seasons in the AHL and then went to Europe. The prize of this draft was Eberle, drafted 22nd overall and currently a part of the Oilers' future plans. He has been one of the team's best players for a few years now and spent only a few games in the AHL before going to the NHL. He also spent half a year in the AHL in 2012-2013, as did many Oilers players, during the lockout shortened season.
2009:
1st round (10): Magnus Paajarvi (F) - Traded offseason 2013 (currently St. Louis), 163 games with EDM (Current: 10 games, 1 point, -2, no longer on active roster)
2nd round (40): Anton Lander (F) - In system (currently AHL) (Totals: 95 games, 8 points, -24)
3rd round (71): Troy Hesketh (D) - Out of league (currently out of hockey)
3rd round (82): Cameron Abney (F) - In system (currently ECHL), no games with EDM
4th round (99): Kyle Bigos (D) - In SJ system (currently ECHL) no games with EDM
4th round (101): Toni Rajala (F) - Out of league (currently Sweden), no games with EDM
Six picks in four rounds is a nice change, but the picks themselves are not producing. He was put straight into the NHL and produced well initially, then fell off, eventually being put back into the AHL. He was then called back up with many others after the lockout ended and then was traded the following offseason. He was traded with a pick for David Perron who has been a good player for them (scoring-wise). Lander is still around, though after spending most of his first North American season in NHL, he has spent most of his time in the AHL, only coming up to the NHL occasionally and not providing much. Hesketh played one year of university hockey and that's as far as he went, a disastrous third round pick. Abney played 18 games in the AHL but that's as close as he got to the NHL. Bigos was traded while still in NCAA and the played in the San Jose Sharks' AHL affiliate for 5 games and did not get any closer to the NHL. Rajala played one year in the system, most of it in the AHL, but then went back to Europe and did not look back.
Overall, a disaster draft for Edmonton, only two players still even in the system, and their third pick is out of hockey altogether.
2010:
1st round (1): Taylor Hall (F) - Still with team (current: 30 games, 21 points, -7)
2nd round (31): Tyler Pitlick (F) - Still with team, mostly AHL (currently NHL) (current: 12 games, 1 point, -4)
2nd round (46): Martin Marincin (D) - Still with team, mostly AHL (currently AHL) (current NHL season: 12 games, 1 point, -4)
2nd round (48): Curtis Hamilton (F) -In system (currently AHL), currently not on active roster (current AHL: 27 games, 16 points, +4)
3rd round (61): Ryan Martindale (F) - Traded January 2014 (currently AHL: San Antonio), no games for EDM (current: 24 games, 6 points, -5)
4th round (91): Jeremie Blain (D) - Not with team (currently ECHL: Kalamazoo), no games for EDM (current: 13 games, 6 points, -9)
Another draft with a large volume of picks in the first four rounds. This is the first of the number one overall pick drafts. Taylor Hall is generally considered to be the best of the bunch and I'm inclined to agree. He never had a stop in the AHL minus the lockout season. He's been operating at a little more than a point per game in recent years, and a little behind that pace this year. He seems like he'll be good for a while. Pitlick has been holding down the fort in the AHL for a few years, though he never lit it up. He had a cup of coffee with the big club last year and is currently called up, though he hasn't blown anyone away with his stats thus far. Marincin has mostly been in the AHL since turning pro though last season he spent more time with the big club than the farm. Hamilton is the first one to have a positive plus/minus rating and has been in the AHL since turning pro. He is currently playing for Team Canada at the Spengler Cup which is a good sign for his future. Martindale was traded last season and never made it past the AHL. He was sent down a few times to the ECHL, not a pick of note. Blain turns up in the hockeydb.com database without playing for any Oilers affiliates, which is weird. Point is, he's not with the Oilers anymore.
A good draft overall with the first four picks all still in the system. The first pick being Taylor Hall certainly helps, but overall the best draft we've looked at so far.
2011:
1st round (1): Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F) - With team (current: 36 games, 24 points, -6)
1st round (19): Oscar Klefbom (D) -With team (current: 16 games, 2 points, -11)
2nd round (31): David Musil (D) - In system (current AHL), no games with Oilers (current: 26 games, 2 points, -7)
3rd round (62): Samu Perhonen (G) - In Europe (currently Sweden), no games with Oilers (current: 5 games, 2.60 GAA, 0.890 save%)
3rd round (74): Travis Ewanyk (F) - In system (currently AHL), no games with Oilers (current: 31 games, 3 points, -12)
4th round (92): Dillon Simpson (D) - In system (currently AHL), no games with Oilers (current: 30 games, 8 points, -1)
4th round (114): Tobias Rieder (F) -Traded March 2013 (Currently Arizona) no games with Oilers (current (NHL): 27 games, 7 points, +3)
Nugent-Hopkins is looking like a legitimate NHL player and he even has not-awful plus/minus stats. He also spent no time in the AHL apart from the lockout year. Klefbom spent most of his career in Europe before coming over last year and spending most of the season in the AHL. He's up with the big club this year, though he doesn't seem to be an impact player quite yet. Musil has played almost his entire (2 year) pro career in the AHL and the stats don't scream NHLer yet. Perhonen remains in Europe and it's harder than usual to judge him as a young player because he's a goalie. Ewanyk is in his second year in the AHL and doesn't have a whole lot of scoring punch. Simpson is in his first season in the AHL after 4 solid years in NCAA hockey, and he seems to be putting in a decent year for a rookie. Rieder was traded and seems to be putting in some decent time with Arizona.
Truthfully, I debated including the 2011 draft class. My argument against including it boiled down to the question of whether or not you could accurately judge players within three years of their draft. Most of the players are still on their Entry level contracts, if they've signed any at all. You can see that by the fact that half of the drafted players are in the AHL.
HERE'S WHERE TO COME BACK IF YOU SKIPPED THE LISTS
The Oilers started off by not having many early round picks, a strategy that changed considerably by 2009. Between 2006 and 2008, the Oilers picked 8 players in the first four rounds. Contrast that with the drafts between 2009 and 2011 where they drafted 19 players in the first four rounds. So they drafted 27 players in the first four rounds between 2006 and 2011.
Breakdown:
1st round: 8 players. 4 are still with the team, 3 were traded, and 1 is no longer in the league
2nd round: 6 players. 1 in the NHL, 5 in the system.
3rd round: 6 players. 3 in the system, 1 was traded, 1 is in Europe, and 1 is out of hockey altogether
4th round: 7 players. 1 in system, 3 are in other teams' NHL systems, 3 are out of the league.
There is a difference between "in the system" and a player as a legitimate threat to make an impact in the NHL. Judging only based on statistics, I would guess that the only player in the Oilers' system is that could become a quality player is Dillon Simpson, who plays defense and is 21 years old. This is obviously a guess and who knows what will actually happen.
Of the 27 players drafted, 15 of them are forwards (including 6 of 8 first rounders), 11 defensemen, and 1 goalie. I was under the impression that Edmonton did not draft that many defensemen, given their current situation and the amount of hype that surrounds their top-3 picks (all forwards). The reality is, however, that Edmonton has actually drafted a lot of defensemen (maybe a lot is a stretch). The problem may be that the Oilers haven't used very many high picks on defensemen, the highest drafted defenseman was drafted 15th. It's entirely possible that some of the later picked defensemen will work out, there are examples of it all around the league, but it hasn't really happened so far, which indicates that the development of players in the system has been sub-par.
The thing that stood out to me was the lack of drafted players that are still on Edmonton's current NHL roster. I don't know if this is atypical for NHL teams but it stood out to me. I'm used to NFL rosters (where a large chunk of the team is drafted by that team) and NBA rosters (less so than NFL but you still see it more, especially for depth). It is extremely important to draft well in order to sustain a roster. This is because it is expensive to get talent from elsewhere. In free agency, you have to outbid other teams for a player's services. In trades, you have to give up assets to get some back. The best way to get bang for your buck is to draft and develop internally since you can determine whether or not a player fits your system or will develop into something great before they hit the open market. Of the 22 players currently on the roster, 7 of them were drafted by the Oilers (2 defensemen) and none were drafted prior to the 2006 draft. (*they have made a couple trades recently, though I do not believe they involved any players that the team drafted). This may not mean anything, though. The Flames (by my count) only have 6 drafted players on their current roster (but two undrafted free agents) and only one of them was drafted in the first round (compared to the Oilers who boast 5 of their teams first round picks on their roster). The numbers bump up to 7 drafted players and 2 first rounders when Backlund comes back (depending on who gets sent down). This might partially be due to Calgary drafting poor first rounders or better 2nd and later rounders. Who knows.
It's hard to say where the issues actually lie but the organization has not done themselves any favors with the way they've drafted (or developed, but that will come into play in part 3). I suspect that the issues are not entirely placed upon the draft, though I initially thought that's where the problem lay. It seems that management is not oblivious to the defensive woes. I would begin to invest more high draft picks into defensemen (unlikely this year because of McDavid/Eichel, but Hanifin might be a good option). I'm starting to expect that the issue is not in recognition of needs (and subsequent drafting of position), but rather development or even scouting of players. Development is important to increase the skill of the players you have and scouting is important to make sure you have the right players.
This has been my very unofficial look at the Oilers' recent drafts
This has taken much longer to write than I anticipated but I hope the next parts come faster.
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