Let's talk about luck. Specifically luck in a competition (specifically sports because of course). It seems to me that luck determines everything in competition involving two or more opposing entities. It's luck that potentially says that a defender reacts a certain way to an offensive move. A perfectly placed throw by a quarterback is not intercepted if the defender is more than a foot farther away from the ball than he should be. If the cornerback guesses an out route, and gets beat, that's unlucky. Or lucky if he guesses right. Skill raises the potential for lucky events. I can shut out LeBron James in 1-on-1 if I hit every single halfcourt shot I take (likely the only shot that won't get blocked) and he slips or dribbles off his foot every single time. Horrendously unlikely but still possible. His skill and my skill make that unlikely. Unless I get lucky.
Life is not really a video game, though. I wouldn't write a masters thesis on it.
The basketball regular season is over so this is a recap of my last day of picks. Here we go.
Results 4/14
Toronto (-1.5) over Boston. I continually pick the Raptors and I usually pay for it.
Celtics won by 2. Lost $100.
It makes sense that my last day of picks features a half point loss. Ugh. The Raptors have been a pain in my side for the last two months.
Indiana (-7.0) over Washington. I'm picking the desperate team in this one.
Pacers won by 4. Lost $100.
Pacers needed the win and got it, just not by as much as I needed them to.
LA Clippers (-10.0) over Phoenix. Neither team has anything to play for. I'll take the better one.
Clippers won by 11. Won $190.
I got a one point win to go with my half point loss. Nothing really to say.
Totals: Bets: $300. Winnings: $190. NET: -$110. Record: 1-2
April totals: NET: +$650. Record: 25-16.
It was a good basketball season, not so much for the Wolves but the future is bright. That's what counts, right? (right Oilers fans?).
As far as my picks are concerned, I had two good months and two not so good months, though I believe February was the only one that I lost money in.
My NET for 2015 was $1250. I made over $1000 in four months, not going to become a career gambler or anything. I never use real money on my bets and do not condone it but this was a fun exercise. Maybe I'll do it next season, who knows.
Good season.
Thursday, 16 April 2015
Tuesday, 14 April 2015
Been a While. Picks 4/14
The reason I haven't written a blog in a while is because I got a job. As a result, my time has been more scarce. I have some free time today, so here's some picks. There aren't that many days left in the season. Today will be my last pick blog and then there will likely be a results blog at some point. The regular season is over tomorrow and I won't be picking for the playoffs. It's been a good run.
It's been a while, so expect even less analysis than usual.
Results 4/8
Boston (+1.0) over Detroit. Apparently Detroit is still in the playoff race. Go figure.
Celtics won by 10. Won $190.
Not unexpected.
Chicago (-8.0) over Orlando. Odds: 1.86. Don't like Orlando. Certainly like Chicago more. Do not particularly like this pick.
Magic won by 2. Lost $100.
Go figure.
Toronto (-3.0) over Charlotte. Am I a fool for picking Toronto again? They have to win again at some point?
Raptors won by 18. Won $190.
Woo.
Washington (-8.0) over Philadelphia. I feel like this a rarity these days, me not picking Philly when they're getting more than five points. And against Washington too, whom I love to pick against. I don't know. Guts!
Wizards won by 29. Won $190.
76ers playing to their skill level. Wizards playing to theirs
Atlanta vs Brooklyn. OFF THE BOARD. NO BET. For some reason, Bet365 is not currently accepting bets for this game. Don't know why.
Indiana (-12.5) over New York. Paul George is back from a horrendous broken leg he suffered over the summer. Obviously he's not back to what he was last year but if he can bring the Pacers from about 65% of last year's skill to 75%, that should be more than enough to dominate the Knicks.
Pacers won by 16. Won $190.
Ugh. The Knicks
Cleveland vs Milwaukee. OFF THE BOARD. NO BET. Another one.
Memphis (-5.0) over New Orleans. Memphis is turning (have turned) a corner and are playing better. I think Gasol can mitigate Davis at least somewhat and everyone can take care of business. Kind of depends on which Tyreke Evans shows up.
Grizzlies by 36. Won $190.
Holy cow.
Houston (+6.0) over San Antonio. Classic Pop rest game potential.
Spurs won by 12. Lost $100.
Spurs.
LA Lakers vs Denver. OFF THE BOARD. NO BET
Sacramento vs Utah. OFF THE BOARD. NO BET
Dallas (-9.0) over Phoenix. Phoenix has really nothing to play for, Dallas does.
Mavericks won by 3. Lost $100.
I'm going to assume that Dallas was favored by 9 in this one.
Portland (-16.5) over Minnesota. Back to back? Traveling? Onuaku? Give me Portland.
Trailblazers won by 25. Won $190.
Ugh the Wolves.
Totals: Bets: $900. Winnings: $1140. NET: +$240. Record: 6-3
April Totals: NET: +$760. Record: 24-14.
Good day. Very good day. There aren't enough games today to drop me to the red for the month so that's nice.
The Games 4/14 Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted
Toronto (-1.5) over Boston. I continually pick the Raptors and I usually pay for it.
Indiana (-7.0) over Washington. I'm picking the desperate team in this one.
LA Clippers (-10.0) over Phoenix. Neither team has anything to play for. I'll take the better one.
Go Flames Go.
It's been a while, so expect even less analysis than usual.
Results 4/8
Boston (+1.0) over Detroit. Apparently Detroit is still in the playoff race. Go figure.
Celtics won by 10. Won $190.
Not unexpected.
Chicago (-8.0) over Orlando. Odds: 1.86. Don't like Orlando. Certainly like Chicago more. Do not particularly like this pick.
Magic won by 2. Lost $100.
Go figure.
Toronto (-3.0) over Charlotte. Am I a fool for picking Toronto again? They have to win again at some point?
Raptors won by 18. Won $190.
Woo.
Washington (-8.0) over Philadelphia. I feel like this a rarity these days, me not picking Philly when they're getting more than five points. And against Washington too, whom I love to pick against. I don't know. Guts!
Wizards won by 29. Won $190.
76ers playing to their skill level. Wizards playing to theirs
Atlanta vs Brooklyn. OFF THE BOARD. NO BET. For some reason, Bet365 is not currently accepting bets for this game. Don't know why.
Indiana (-12.5) over New York. Paul George is back from a horrendous broken leg he suffered over the summer. Obviously he's not back to what he was last year but if he can bring the Pacers from about 65% of last year's skill to 75%, that should be more than enough to dominate the Knicks.
Pacers won by 16. Won $190.
Ugh. The Knicks
Cleveland vs Milwaukee. OFF THE BOARD. NO BET. Another one.
Memphis (-5.0) over New Orleans. Memphis is turning (have turned) a corner and are playing better. I think Gasol can mitigate Davis at least somewhat and everyone can take care of business. Kind of depends on which Tyreke Evans shows up.
Grizzlies by 36. Won $190.
Holy cow.
Houston (+6.0) over San Antonio. Classic Pop rest game potential.
Spurs won by 12. Lost $100.
Spurs.
LA Lakers vs Denver. OFF THE BOARD. NO BET
Sacramento vs Utah. OFF THE BOARD. NO BET
Dallas (-9.0) over Phoenix. Phoenix has really nothing to play for, Dallas does.
Mavericks won by 3. Lost $100.
I'm going to assume that Dallas was favored by 9 in this one.
Portland (-16.5) over Minnesota. Back to back? Traveling? Onuaku? Give me Portland.
Trailblazers won by 25. Won $190.
Ugh the Wolves.
Totals: Bets: $900. Winnings: $1140. NET: +$240. Record: 6-3
April Totals: NET: +$760. Record: 24-14.
Good day. Very good day. There aren't enough games today to drop me to the red for the month so that's nice.
The Games 4/14 Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted
Toronto (-1.5) over Boston. I continually pick the Raptors and I usually pay for it.
Indiana (-7.0) over Washington. I'm picking the desperate team in this one.
LA Clippers (-10.0) over Phoenix. Neither team has anything to play for. I'll take the better one.
Go Flames Go.
Wednesday, 8 April 2015
Flames, I guess? Picks 4/8
I really don't have anything to say today. Some days, a topic will jump out at me and be on my mind the entire time I make my picks. Other days, I have nothing. Today is one of the latter kinds. The only thing I have to say is that the Flames' magic number to get into the playoffs is 1. A Kings loss OR a Flames win gets them in. Each have two games to go, one of those is against each other. This is exciting and terrifying. I don't even know what I want anymore!
Yesterday's picks!!
Results 4/7
Charlotte (+6.0) over Miami. The Heat are injured and the Hornets are inconsistent. I'm taking inconsistent today
Heat won by 5. Won $190.
Close win for me and an unfortunate loss for Charlotte. Twitter indicates they had the game in their control and lost it. Their season is pretty much over at this point though I don't know if they're mathematically eliminated quite yet.
Atlanta (-7.5) over Phoenix. This is a trap since it's unknown how much resting the Hawks will do.
Hawks won by 27. Won $190.
Dominant win. I always feel slightly embarrassed when I pick a team that gets absolutely crushed. Like there should have been some indicator that that would happen. It's weird. Fortunately I guessed correctly yesterday.
Golden State (-5.0) over New Orleans. I think Golden State will attempt to snatch back some mojo before the playoffs start.
Pelicans won by 3. Lost $100.
Another loss for Golden State. I'm sure at this point they're coasting. Pelicans are a desperate team now and have now snatched the last playoff spot in the West.
San Antonio (-6.0) over Oklahoma City. I feel like the Spurs are just posturing for position and maybe even playing for playoff matchups. We'll see if that's true. They could easily rest.
Spurs won by 25. Won $190.
The Thunder lost their playoff spot and as Popovich said after the game "it wasn't a fair fight". The Thunder are very injured right now (as opposed to the Wolves who are "injured") and that has taken its toll. As good as Westbrook is, he can't defend everyone and I'm sure he's running out of gas a bit.
Minnesota (+10.0) over Sacramento. I actually think that the Kings is the correct bet but I typed Minnesota first so maybe it's destiny...? But seriously, the Kings should take advantage of this dumpster fire.
Kings won by 5. Won $190.
My intuition was correct! Destiny and all that. This is exactly what the Wolves want, good production from the rookies (Wiggins: 26 pts, LaVine: 21 pts) and a close loss. Fantastic. The Wolves actually played 9 players, including Arinze Onuaku (whom I have no idea who that is. Certainly didn't know he was on the Wolves)
LA Lakers (+17.0) over LA Clippers. Oh my goodness. 17? I'll take the Lakers, I guess? It's just a lot.
Clippers won by 5. Won $190.
Twitter jokes explained. The Lakers and the Clippers play in the same arena, just a different floor and the Clippers cover up the Lakers' banners. So when they play each other and people comment how the "Lakers are a much better team on the road", the joke is that they're actually still playing at home, just with a different floor and such. You're welcome. Anyway, the Clippers should have won by more.
Totals: Bets: $600. Winnings: $950. NET: +$350. Record: 5-1
April totals: NET: +$520. Record: 18-11.
Great night. Getting into the homestretch of the picks season. There's only about two weeks left in the season so we're getting down to it.
Big night tonight. 13 games.
The Games 4/8 Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted
Boston (+1.0) over Detroit. Apparently Detroit is still in the playoff race. Go figure.
Chicago (-8.0) over Orlando. Odds: 1.86. Don't like Orlando. Certainly like Chicago more. Do not particularly like this pick.
Toronto (-3.0) over Charlotte. Am I a fool for picking Toronto again? They have to win again at some point?
Washington (-8.0) over Philadelphia. I feel like this a rarity these days, me not picking Philly when they're getting more than five points. And against Washington too, whom I love to pick against. I don't know. Guts!
Atlanta vs Brooklyn. OFF THE BOARD. NO BET. For some reason, Bet365 is not currently accepting bets for this game. Don't know why.
Indiana (-12.5) over New York. Paul George is back from a horrendous broken leg he suffered over the summer. Obviously he's not back to what he was last year but if he can bring the Pacers from about 65% of last year's skill to 75%, that should be more than enough to dominate the Knicks.
Cleveland vs Milwaukee. OFF THE BOARD. NO BET. Another one.
Memphis (-5.0) over New Orleans. Memphis is turning (have turned) a corner and are playing better. I think Gasol can mitigate Davis at least somewhat and everyone can take care of business. Kind of depends on which Tyreke Evans shows up.
Houston (+6.0) over San Antonio. Classic Pop rest game potential.
LA Lakers vs Denver. OFF THE BOARD. NO BET
Sacramento vs Utah. OFF THE BOARD. NO BET
Dallas (9.0) over Phoenix. Phoenix has really nothing to play for, Dallas does.
Portland (-16.5) over Minnesota. Back to back? Traveling? Onuaku? Give me Portland.
Lots of off the board games. I don't know what's going on. Maybe late in the season they don't worry as much about some games, or maybe there wasn't enough interest (I doubt that). Dunno. Turns out there's only 9 picks today.
Yesterday's picks!!
Results 4/7
Charlotte (+6.0) over Miami. The Heat are injured and the Hornets are inconsistent. I'm taking inconsistent today
Heat won by 5. Won $190.
Close win for me and an unfortunate loss for Charlotte. Twitter indicates they had the game in their control and lost it. Their season is pretty much over at this point though I don't know if they're mathematically eliminated quite yet.
Atlanta (-7.5) over Phoenix. This is a trap since it's unknown how much resting the Hawks will do.
Hawks won by 27. Won $190.
Dominant win. I always feel slightly embarrassed when I pick a team that gets absolutely crushed. Like there should have been some indicator that that would happen. It's weird. Fortunately I guessed correctly yesterday.
Golden State (-5.0) over New Orleans. I think Golden State will attempt to snatch back some mojo before the playoffs start.
Pelicans won by 3. Lost $100.
Another loss for Golden State. I'm sure at this point they're coasting. Pelicans are a desperate team now and have now snatched the last playoff spot in the West.
San Antonio (-6.0) over Oklahoma City. I feel like the Spurs are just posturing for position and maybe even playing for playoff matchups. We'll see if that's true. They could easily rest.
Spurs won by 25. Won $190.
The Thunder lost their playoff spot and as Popovich said after the game "it wasn't a fair fight". The Thunder are very injured right now (as opposed to the Wolves who are "injured") and that has taken its toll. As good as Westbrook is, he can't defend everyone and I'm sure he's running out of gas a bit.
Minnesota (+10.0) over Sacramento. I actually think that the Kings is the correct bet but I typed Minnesota first so maybe it's destiny...? But seriously, the Kings should take advantage of this dumpster fire.
Kings won by 5. Won $190.
My intuition was correct! Destiny and all that. This is exactly what the Wolves want, good production from the rookies (Wiggins: 26 pts, LaVine: 21 pts) and a close loss. Fantastic. The Wolves actually played 9 players, including Arinze Onuaku (whom I have no idea who that is. Certainly didn't know he was on the Wolves)
LA Lakers (+17.0) over LA Clippers. Oh my goodness. 17? I'll take the Lakers, I guess? It's just a lot.
Clippers won by 5. Won $190.
Twitter jokes explained. The Lakers and the Clippers play in the same arena, just a different floor and the Clippers cover up the Lakers' banners. So when they play each other and people comment how the "Lakers are a much better team on the road", the joke is that they're actually still playing at home, just with a different floor and such. You're welcome. Anyway, the Clippers should have won by more.
Totals: Bets: $600. Winnings: $950. NET: +$350. Record: 5-1
April totals: NET: +$520. Record: 18-11.
Great night. Getting into the homestretch of the picks season. There's only about two weeks left in the season so we're getting down to it.
Big night tonight. 13 games.
The Games 4/8 Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted
Boston (+1.0) over Detroit. Apparently Detroit is still in the playoff race. Go figure.
Chicago (-8.0) over Orlando. Odds: 1.86. Don't like Orlando. Certainly like Chicago more. Do not particularly like this pick.
Toronto (-3.0) over Charlotte. Am I a fool for picking Toronto again? They have to win again at some point?
Washington (-8.0) over Philadelphia. I feel like this a rarity these days, me not picking Philly when they're getting more than five points. And against Washington too, whom I love to pick against. I don't know. Guts!
Atlanta vs Brooklyn. OFF THE BOARD. NO BET. For some reason, Bet365 is not currently accepting bets for this game. Don't know why.
Indiana (-12.5) over New York. Paul George is back from a horrendous broken leg he suffered over the summer. Obviously he's not back to what he was last year but if he can bring the Pacers from about 65% of last year's skill to 75%, that should be more than enough to dominate the Knicks.
Cleveland vs Milwaukee. OFF THE BOARD. NO BET. Another one.
Memphis (-5.0) over New Orleans. Memphis is turning (have turned) a corner and are playing better. I think Gasol can mitigate Davis at least somewhat and everyone can take care of business. Kind of depends on which Tyreke Evans shows up.
Houston (+6.0) over San Antonio. Classic Pop rest game potential.
LA Lakers vs Denver. OFF THE BOARD. NO BET
Sacramento vs Utah. OFF THE BOARD. NO BET
Dallas (9.0) over Phoenix. Phoenix has really nothing to play for, Dallas does.
Portland (-16.5) over Minnesota. Back to back? Traveling? Onuaku? Give me Portland.
Lots of off the board games. I don't know what's going on. Maybe late in the season they don't worry as much about some games, or maybe there wasn't enough interest (I doubt that). Dunno. Turns out there's only 9 picks today.
Tuesday, 7 April 2015
Sports luck. Picks 4/7
I read an article by Samuel Arbesman on Wired.com where he interviewed Michael Mauboussin about his book The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing. He presents a continuum of Luck vs Skill and their impact on the outcomes of various sports. *Please note that he uses a specific definition for Luck and that by saying a sport has more Luck involved, he does not say that skill is less important. He says that there are more random events that can swing the game in the favor of one team over another in some sports.*
On this continuum, basketball is the highest on the skill side and hockey is the lowest on the skill (highest luck, if you prefer), with soccer, baseball, and football in order of highest to lowest pure skill effect.
This is a wordier-than-it-needs-to-be example on why I pick NBA games. It is my belief, and Mr. Mauboussin agrees (though he uses actual measurements) that NBA games are "easier" to predict. Frequent readers will note that that does not seem to help me, but you can usually point to more concrete reasons in basketball. The number of possessions, the scoring system, the amount of players on the court all contribute to the better basketball teams usually winning the game.
As an example of this, let's briefly look at an impact play that happens in each sport besides baseball, a change of possession and quick score. *this is one example of basketball vs the others, not comparing the others against each other. There's a lot more that goes into all of this.* In Football, this is a pick-6, punt/kickoff return touchdown, or fumble recovery and run. Soccer, Hockey, and Basketball, it's a steal or missed shot and counterattack/breakaway.
Football - Potentially responsible for between 1/5 to 1/3 of the scoring (give or take) for the entire game for the one team
Soccer - Generally responsible for between 1/3 and all of the scoring for the one team
Hockey - Could be between 1/4 to 1/2 for the one team
*These are all pure estimations off the top of my head of the average scoring amount in a typical game*
Basketball - Could be between 1/43 to 1/50 for the one team.
Each sport also experiences a momentum swing.
The point is that in basketball, the better team has many more opportunities to make up the one disastrous play. It's harder to pinpoint a "turning point" because of the sheer number of events that happen in each game. Basketball is an easier game to predict a winner, which is part of the reason why gambling requires spreads to create even bets.
I feel like it's easier to become good at predicting basketball games than most other sports.
*There are a lot of "well buts" that go along with only using one example to explain my point. There are holes and I'm sure I could think of counterarguments to supplement but I just don't feel like it*
Only one game last night, terrifying to me from a picks perspective
Results 4/6
Portland (+6.0) over Brooklyn. The Nets continue to bite me in the butt but I like Portland's chances in this game. This makes me think that Aldridge or Lillard isn't playing for some reason but six points is a lot.
Nets won by 10. Lost $100.
Aldridge didn't play. I thought that Portland would still win because I still don't think that Brooklyn is very good. Turns out I was wrong.
Totals: Bets: $100. Winnings: $0. NET: -$100. Record: 0-1
April Totals: +$170. Record: 13-10.
As I mentioned yesterday, I hate days like this where it can go great or terribly. It went terribly yesterday but, on the plus side, I could only lose a maximum of $100. And that's what I did.
Another small-ish night, with only 6 games.
The Games 4/7 Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted
Charlotte (+6.0) over Miami. The Heat are injured and the Hornets are inconsistent. I'm taking inconsistent today
Atlanta (-7.5) over Phoenix. This is a trap since it's unknown how much resting the Hawks will do.
Golden State (-5.0) over New Orleans. I think Golden State will attempt to snatch back some mojo before the playoffs start.
San Antonio (-6.0) over Oklahoma City. I feel like the Spurs are just posturing for position and maybe even playing for playoff matchups. We'll see if that's true. They could easily rest.
Minnesota (+10.0) over Sacramento. I actually think that the Kings is the correct bet but I typed Minnesota first so maybe it's destiny...? But seriously, the Kings should take advantage of this dumpster fire.
LA Lakers (+17.0) over LA Clippers. Oh my goodness. 17? I'll take the Lakers, I guess? It's just a lot.
Congrats to the Duke Blue Devils and their fans on the National Championship. It was a very good game even though I think Duke gained the benefit of some questionable foul calls to swing the momentum. I would have preferred a Wisconsin win but I like Coach K and Duke. Always have.
On this continuum, basketball is the highest on the skill side and hockey is the lowest on the skill (highest luck, if you prefer), with soccer, baseball, and football in order of highest to lowest pure skill effect.
This is a wordier-than-it-needs-to-be example on why I pick NBA games. It is my belief, and Mr. Mauboussin agrees (though he uses actual measurements) that NBA games are "easier" to predict. Frequent readers will note that that does not seem to help me, but you can usually point to more concrete reasons in basketball. The number of possessions, the scoring system, the amount of players on the court all contribute to the better basketball teams usually winning the game.
As an example of this, let's briefly look at an impact play that happens in each sport besides baseball, a change of possession and quick score. *this is one example of basketball vs the others, not comparing the others against each other. There's a lot more that goes into all of this.* In Football, this is a pick-6, punt/kickoff return touchdown, or fumble recovery and run. Soccer, Hockey, and Basketball, it's a steal or missed shot and counterattack/breakaway.
Football - Potentially responsible for between 1/5 to 1/3 of the scoring (give or take) for the entire game for the one team
Soccer - Generally responsible for between 1/3 and all of the scoring for the one team
Hockey - Could be between 1/4 to 1/2 for the one team
*These are all pure estimations off the top of my head of the average scoring amount in a typical game*
Basketball - Could be between 1/43 to 1/50 for the one team.
Each sport also experiences a momentum swing.
The point is that in basketball, the better team has many more opportunities to make up the one disastrous play. It's harder to pinpoint a "turning point" because of the sheer number of events that happen in each game. Basketball is an easier game to predict a winner, which is part of the reason why gambling requires spreads to create even bets.
I feel like it's easier to become good at predicting basketball games than most other sports.
*There are a lot of "well buts" that go along with only using one example to explain my point. There are holes and I'm sure I could think of counterarguments to supplement but I just don't feel like it*
Only one game last night, terrifying to me from a picks perspective
Results 4/6
Portland (+6.0) over Brooklyn. The Nets continue to bite me in the butt but I like Portland's chances in this game. This makes me think that Aldridge or Lillard isn't playing for some reason but six points is a lot.
Nets won by 10. Lost $100.
Aldridge didn't play. I thought that Portland would still win because I still don't think that Brooklyn is very good. Turns out I was wrong.
Totals: Bets: $100. Winnings: $0. NET: -$100. Record: 0-1
April Totals: +$170. Record: 13-10.
As I mentioned yesterday, I hate days like this where it can go great or terribly. It went terribly yesterday but, on the plus side, I could only lose a maximum of $100. And that's what I did.
Another small-ish night, with only 6 games.
The Games 4/7 Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted
Charlotte (+6.0) over Miami. The Heat are injured and the Hornets are inconsistent. I'm taking inconsistent today
Atlanta (-7.5) over Phoenix. This is a trap since it's unknown how much resting the Hawks will do.
Golden State (-5.0) over New Orleans. I think Golden State will attempt to snatch back some mojo before the playoffs start.
San Antonio (-6.0) over Oklahoma City. I feel like the Spurs are just posturing for position and maybe even playing for playoff matchups. We'll see if that's true. They could easily rest.
Minnesota (+10.0) over Sacramento. I actually think that the Kings is the correct bet but I typed Minnesota first so maybe it's destiny...? But seriously, the Kings should take advantage of this dumpster fire.
LA Lakers (+17.0) over LA Clippers. Oh my goodness. 17? I'll take the Lakers, I guess? It's just a lot.
Congrats to the Duke Blue Devils and their fans on the National Championship. It was a very good game even though I think Duke gained the benefit of some questionable foul calls to swing the momentum. I would have preferred a Wisconsin win but I like Coach K and Duke. Always have.
Monday, 6 April 2015
Go Badgers. Picks 4/6
On Saturday night, the Wisconsin Badgers defeated the previously unbeaten Kentucky Wildcats. FiveThirtyEight, a great statistical analysis site, gave the Badgers a 31% chance to win the game. I find this sort of probability strange in an abstract sense. It really means that, if this game was played 100 times, Wisconsin would win 31 times. Now, FiveThirtyEight takes into account way more than you or I would when discussing Wisconsin's chances, and they cam up with 31%.
My issue with a lot of numbers like this are that they can't measure everything. For all we know, Kentucky had no chance in this game, a ridiculous thought unless you subscribe to destiny theories. *Quick note: I'm watching the game as I type. Wisconsin's big guys (Kaminsky and Dekker) are extremely skilled with the ball and Kentucky switches everything. Wisconsin put the ball in the hands of their big men and ran screens until they are matched up with someone who they could bully. Lots of And-1s. That's gameplanning*
I enjoy the predictive nature of statistics but I hesitate to apply statistical predictions to single games. The sample size is way too small and (especially in college basketball) the variability is very high. I admire the FiveThirtyEight model, but from a pure basketball fandom standpoint, Wisconsin had a higher than 31% chance to win the game.
I would not say it wasn't an upset. Kentucky was undefeated and clearly the better team throughout the year, but don't let anyone tell you it was a historic upset (I don't know if that narrative is being perpetuated). Lest we forget, Wisconsin was also a 1 seed.
Go Badgers
Results 4/3
Charlotte (+5.0) over Indiana. I like Charlotte to keep it close or win. Indiana doesn't usually blow teams out and Charlotte CAN play well, unknown whether they will.
Pacers won by 19. Lost $100.
The Hornets only scored 73 points and the Pacers, though they aren't great offensively, are good enough to take advantage of that. Holding a team to that low of a point total will generally lead to better offense, with turnovers and fast breaks.
Washington (-14.5) over New York. Boy, I don't like this. Washington is inconsistent and New York sucks (but is also inconsistent) so we'll see.
Wizards won by 14. Lost $100.
Winning by 14 is nothing to sniff at, but they should've won by 15
Milwaukee (+5.5) over Boston. I like Boston but I'm getting a gut feeling that Milwaukee's going to turn it on to finish the season.
Bucks won by 9. Won $190.
Good win for Milwaukee. Unrelated: the Bucks are getting a new logo. From the leaks, it just looks more ferocious. I don't know if it's better. It's not much worse, though, if any. It'll probably grow on me.
Toronto (+2.5) over Brooklyn. The Raptors need to beat the Nets. The Nets are ok but far from great. The Raptors want to be great. They need this win.
Nets won by 5. Lost $100.
C'mon Toronto. They are not playing the way they should. Do I need to just start picking against them as a rule?
Chicago (-9.0) over Detroit. Drummond is playing great but the Bulls can mostly cancel that with Noah, every other position is pretty clearly in Chicago's favor.
Bulls won by 6. Lost $100.
I'm surprised this was as close as it was. Detroit is another one of those teams that are tough to pick, though.
Memphis (-6.5) over Oklahoma City. I think Memphis is turning a corner and the Thunder need someone other than Westbrook to catch fire. The Grizzlies can shut down Westbrook at least somewhat.
Grizzlies won by 8. Won $190.
Westbrook was not OKC\s leading scorer in this game and I have to think that was intentional on Memphis's part. Make someone else beat them.
Orlando (-3.5) over Minnesota. I wonder if the Wolves will only play with 4 players tonight. I think they'll be Wiggins, LaVine, Hamilton, and Payne. I think they'll do it just to see if they'll get away with it. (it sucks being a Wolves fan right now).
Magic won by 13. Won $190.
I don't even know. Jahlil Okafor looks good for Duke. Karl-Anthony Towns looks good for Kentucky. They both are great fits for Minnesota and one will likely go there, as long as the Wolves get one of the top two picks.
San Antonio (-12.5) over Denver. The Spurs are trying (and succeeding) to peak right now. It's weird that they can seem to do that.
Spurs won by 30. Won $190.
The second and fourth quarters were played evenly. I'll let you figure out how the other two went.
Sacramento (+6.5) over New Orleans. I'm picking a random "Kings competence game". I dunno.
Pelicans won by 6. Won $190.
Finally a close win. The Kings aren't tanking, they're trying to figure out what they have. If they were tanking, this would be the ideal win. Competitive against a desperate team, but they still lost.
Portland (-10.5) over LA Lakers. Picking the good team in this one. Not overthinking it.
Trailblazers won by 30. Won $190.
Didn't overthink it. It paid off.
Totals: Bets: $1000. Winnings: $1140. NET: +$140. Record: 6-4.
April Totals: NET: +$270. Record: 13-9
The early games were rough for me, but the late games were so nice. Had a half-point win either way so I can't complain too much.
Only one game tonight. I hate days like this
The Games
Portland (+6.0) over Brooklyn. The Nets continue to bite me in the butt but I like Portland's chances in this game. This makes me think that Aldridge or Lillard isn't playing for some reason but six points is a lot.
Enjoy the NCAA Championship game.
My issue with a lot of numbers like this are that they can't measure everything. For all we know, Kentucky had no chance in this game, a ridiculous thought unless you subscribe to destiny theories. *Quick note: I'm watching the game as I type. Wisconsin's big guys (Kaminsky and Dekker) are extremely skilled with the ball and Kentucky switches everything. Wisconsin put the ball in the hands of their big men and ran screens until they are matched up with someone who they could bully. Lots of And-1s. That's gameplanning*
I enjoy the predictive nature of statistics but I hesitate to apply statistical predictions to single games. The sample size is way too small and (especially in college basketball) the variability is very high. I admire the FiveThirtyEight model, but from a pure basketball fandom standpoint, Wisconsin had a higher than 31% chance to win the game.
I would not say it wasn't an upset. Kentucky was undefeated and clearly the better team throughout the year, but don't let anyone tell you it was a historic upset (I don't know if that narrative is being perpetuated). Lest we forget, Wisconsin was also a 1 seed.
Go Badgers
Results 4/3
Charlotte (+5.0) over Indiana. I like Charlotte to keep it close or win. Indiana doesn't usually blow teams out and Charlotte CAN play well, unknown whether they will.
Pacers won by 19. Lost $100.
The Hornets only scored 73 points and the Pacers, though they aren't great offensively, are good enough to take advantage of that. Holding a team to that low of a point total will generally lead to better offense, with turnovers and fast breaks.
Washington (-14.5) over New York. Boy, I don't like this. Washington is inconsistent and New York sucks (but is also inconsistent) so we'll see.
Wizards won by 14. Lost $100.
Winning by 14 is nothing to sniff at, but they should've won by 15
Milwaukee (+5.5) over Boston. I like Boston but I'm getting a gut feeling that Milwaukee's going to turn it on to finish the season.
Bucks won by 9. Won $190.
Good win for Milwaukee. Unrelated: the Bucks are getting a new logo. From the leaks, it just looks more ferocious. I don't know if it's better. It's not much worse, though, if any. It'll probably grow on me.
Toronto (+2.5) over Brooklyn. The Raptors need to beat the Nets. The Nets are ok but far from great. The Raptors want to be great. They need this win.
Nets won by 5. Lost $100.
C'mon Toronto. They are not playing the way they should. Do I need to just start picking against them as a rule?
Chicago (-9.0) over Detroit. Drummond is playing great but the Bulls can mostly cancel that with Noah, every other position is pretty clearly in Chicago's favor.
Bulls won by 6. Lost $100.
I'm surprised this was as close as it was. Detroit is another one of those teams that are tough to pick, though.
Memphis (-6.5) over Oklahoma City. I think Memphis is turning a corner and the Thunder need someone other than Westbrook to catch fire. The Grizzlies can shut down Westbrook at least somewhat.
Grizzlies won by 8. Won $190.
Westbrook was not OKC\s leading scorer in this game and I have to think that was intentional on Memphis's part. Make someone else beat them.
Orlando (-3.5) over Minnesota. I wonder if the Wolves will only play with 4 players tonight. I think they'll be Wiggins, LaVine, Hamilton, and Payne. I think they'll do it just to see if they'll get away with it. (it sucks being a Wolves fan right now).
Magic won by 13. Won $190.
I don't even know. Jahlil Okafor looks good for Duke. Karl-Anthony Towns looks good for Kentucky. They both are great fits for Minnesota and one will likely go there, as long as the Wolves get one of the top two picks.
San Antonio (-12.5) over Denver. The Spurs are trying (and succeeding) to peak right now. It's weird that they can seem to do that.
Spurs won by 30. Won $190.
The second and fourth quarters were played evenly. I'll let you figure out how the other two went.
Sacramento (+6.5) over New Orleans. I'm picking a random "Kings competence game". I dunno.
Pelicans won by 6. Won $190.
Finally a close win. The Kings aren't tanking, they're trying to figure out what they have. If they were tanking, this would be the ideal win. Competitive against a desperate team, but they still lost.
Portland (-10.5) over LA Lakers. Picking the good team in this one. Not overthinking it.
Trailblazers won by 30. Won $190.
Didn't overthink it. It paid off.
Totals: Bets: $1000. Winnings: $1140. NET: +$140. Record: 6-4.
April Totals: NET: +$270. Record: 13-9
The early games were rough for me, but the late games were so nice. Had a half-point win either way so I can't complain too much.
Only one game tonight. I hate days like this
The Games
Portland (+6.0) over Brooklyn. The Nets continue to bite me in the butt but I like Portland's chances in this game. This makes me think that Aldridge or Lillard isn't playing for some reason but six points is a lot.
Enjoy the NCAA Championship game.
Friday, 3 April 2015
Tanking
Let’s fix tanking. It’s April and that means playoff hopes
for some NBA and NHL teams and dreams of great draft picks for others. It’s
also the time of year where we “serious” sports fans bemoan the existence of
tanking. That is, the intentional losing of games in order to boost a team’s
chances at the best pick. As a Wolves fan, I know all about this. As a Flames
fan, I should know all about this (but not this year). The main question is,
how do we stop tanking?
A secondary question, asked before the first, is this, is
tanking actually a problem?
On the one hand, tanking teams are notoriously terrible to
watch. The Wolves have played with only 7 or 8 healthy players the last week or
so. That’s ridiculous. The quality of play stinks and no one wants to pay money
to see a team fall flat on their face. The Toronto-Buffalo NHL game on
Wednesday had fans of one team cheering when the other team scored. Funny? Kind
of. But also sad. A fan should not be tempted to turn on their team, even if it’s
in the team’s best long run interest.
On the other hand, I watched highlights of the
Edmonton-Anaheim game, and of the seven or so clips shown from the game, four
or five of them were Anaheim breakaways or partial breakaways. There is such a
talent gap between the two teams that, whether or not Edmonton actively tanked
that game (unlikely), they might as well have. They need a really good player
and tanking would give them that.
The current system of determining draft picks is a weighted,
not super lottery-ish, lottery. This is true in both NBA and NHL. The weights
are different but the worst team in the NHL has a 20% chance at the #1 pick,
second worst has an 11% chance (or something), and so forth. The NBA is
similar. I’m not sure what the NBA rules are, I believe that the worst team is
guaranteed a top 4 pick where in the NHL, a team can only slide down one spot
or up a maximum of two. Confusing? It’s not really, but it’s hard to explain
succinctly. The point is that the worst teams have the best chance of
getting the best pick. It’s not a guarantee but it’s close to one. The current
lottery systems encourage tanking and teams are unwilling to hurt their chances
at the best pick possible.
For the record, I think tanking should be stopped. I have a
solution.
My solution isn’t great, its issues will be discussed, but I
think it’s better than what we have now. *Note: This isn’t my idea and
something similar was proposed at the Sloan Sports Conference. I just like it.*
The solution is to have a system where a separate tally of wins (or points) are
kept from the moment a team is mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. The
highest point getters in that category get the better picks.
Example: Team A is mathematically eliminated from the
playoffs with 22 games to go. They then win 10 games the rest of the way. Team B
is mathematically eliminated with 16 games to go, then go on a run and win 12
games. B would receive a better draft pick than A even though they were
mathematically eliminated later.
Positives: This would give teams incentive to keep trying
and prevent them from attempting to sell off their assets and “burn the team to
the ground”. This would also maintain fan interest and keep them invested in
the success of the team. It would certainly be more interesting. The worst
teams still have the best chance at getting the top picks because they’ll have
more opportunities to rack up the secondary wins.
Negatives: The biggest downside is that the worst teams are
the worst. Even giving them more opportunities will not necessarily give them a
chance. They will be easier to leapfrog because they are so bad. Also what if
teams intentionally tank the first part and then turn it on?
Rebuttals:
A – I believe that there are ways to turn a team
around than by the draft. Drafting is an important part of rebuilding but you
need more than the first round pick to make a difference, especially in the
NHL. NBA places more emphasis on top picks by nature of the game. But the NHL
has numerous examples of top picks not really helping their team (see: Oilers,
Edmonton). You almost have to “earn” a
top pick. A GM/Coach/Team has to reach a certain level of competence (not too
much though) in order to deserve the best player. And maybe that would result
in less players going to these bad teams and getting “ruined”. It may also
prevent teams from taking the attitude of “we just need this one player, then
we can start building”. A great pick can help vault a rebuild, rarely can a top
pick (in the NHL especially) be the foundation for the start of a rebuild.
B – I think this type of tanking would be more difficult to
accomplish. And if it does come up, then it’s not much different than what we
have now.
Variation: I could see a scenario where this type of seeding
is only relevant for the first round. Subsequent rounds are placed by reverse
order of standings, like usual, with the worst team being guaranteed the first
pick in each round after the first. Thereby giving the bad teams a shot at the
theoretically best players available at each round.
That’s my idea, I think it would, at minimum, be much more
interesting than the current system, but could actually fix a lot of the issues
they currently have.
March Recap. Picks 4/3
I have a blog on tanking coming up later today. I actually wrote it yesterday when I didn't write a picks blog.
I didn't write yesterday because I was having trouble with my internet, it was crazy slow and not loading pages. Turns out my issue was with Firefox and I could've wrote yesterday. Go figure.
Results 4/1
Charlotte (-4.5) over Detroit. Detroit is fresh off a very good win over Atlanta. They then have to travel and play a desperate team. They aren't consistent enough for my liking.
Hornets won by 24. Won $190.
A dominant victory. The Pistons were inconsistently bad, the Hornets inconsistently good. weird.
Philadelphia (+10.0) over Washington. I guess I just don't trust Washington to win by as much as they should.
Wizards won by 13. Lost $100.
I was actually decently close to this. This was all 4th quarter though. The 76ers won the 4th by 18. Shows how the other three quarters went.
San Antonio (-9.5) over Orlando. Seems like a lot of points but I'll take the Spurs to do what they need to.
Spurs won by 12. Won $190.
Another "4th quarter foot off the gas", the Magic won the 4th by 10 and still lost by 12.
New York (+10.0) over Brooklyn. Ugh, I can't imagine this game is going to be very high quality. I continue to not believe in the Nets, but 10 points is a lot for a team I don't particularly care for.
Nets won by 2. Won $190.
This game does not give me confidence in the Nets...
Boston (-3.0) over Indiana. Boston is playing at a high level right now and Indiana is on a traveling back-to-back.
Celtics won by 13. Won by $190.
The Pacers are decent this year, but, make no mistake, the talent level is lacking. Watch out for them next year.
Chicago (-5.0) over Milwaukee. The Bulls are better than the Bucks and I don't think Chicago is going to sit secure in their playoff position.
Bucks won by 4. Lost $100.
Milwaukee is weird. I don't think they'll make much noise in the playoffs this year but it'll be interesting to see how they do moving forward. They are approaching good team status
Dallas (+2.5) over Oklahoma City. Westbrook continues on his MVP campaign but Dallas needs to keep pace to maintain their playoff position.
Mavericks won by 4. Won $190.
This game was 135-131. Sounds like it was entertaining. This is a lost season for OKC but they are in good position for playoffs, for what it's worth
Houston (-11.5) over Sacramento. I'm going gut on this one. It's a lot of points and I don't really have a lot of confidence in the pick, but I'm going with it anyway.
Rockets won by 4. Lost $100.
A surprisingly competent game from the Kings. They'll do that.
Minnesota (+9.5) over Toronto. I picked the Wolves the last time these two played and it worked out. I think a similar thing this time. The Raptors aren't playing as well as they should and Wiggins will want to do well.
Raptors won by 14. Lost $100.
It was a little ambitious, I guess. This game was painful to watch. Full disclosure: I can't stand listening to the Raptors broadcasters. They're not as bad as some, and they at least acknowledge the other team has existed all year, but I can't stand Jack Armstrong. Sorry!
Utah (-4.0) over Denver. Going with the "hard to beat a team twice in a week".
Jazz won by 14. Won $190.
My logic worked again!!
Portland (-3.0) over LA Clippers. Clippers have to travel up the coast after playing yesterday.
Clippers won by 4. Lost $100.
Clippers won the second half by 17, which tells you how the first half went. Usually if there's a discrepancy between halves, the second half is worse for the team on the second half of a back to back. Defying the odds over here.
New Orleans (-8.0) over LA Lakers. The Pelicans should dominate, though I have to wonder if this is a random Lakers competence possibility.
Pelicans won by 21. Won $190.
Anthony Davis is great, even if the rest of the team isn't great. They could be great soon, if the coach is up to it, right now they're only good.
April and daily Totals: Bets: $1200. Winnings: $1330. NET: +$130. Record: 7-5
I never reviewed the yearly totals so I'll do that here. Good start to April though.
I finished March in the positives, not a ton but every little bit helps.
After March, I have a 2015 NET total of an even $600. I'm RICH!
Another big day today, 10 games.
The Games 4/3 Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted
Charlotte (+5.0) over Indiana. I like Charlotte to keep it close or win. Indiana doesn't usually blow teams out and Charlotte CAN play well, unknown whether they will.
Washington (-14.5) over New York. Boy, I don't like this. Washington is inconsistent and New York sucks (but is also inconsistent) so we'll see.
Milwaukee (+5.5) over Boston. I like Boston but I'm getting a gut feeling that Milwaukee's going to turn it on to finish the season.
Toronto (+2.5) over Brooklyn. The Raptors need to beat the Nets. The Nets are ok but far from great. The Raptors want to be great. They need this win.
Chicago (-9.0) over Detroit. Drummond is playing great but the Bulls can mostly cancel that with Noah, every other position is pretty clearly in Chicago's favor.
Memphis (-6.5) over Oklahoma City. I think Memphis is turning a corner and the Thunder need someone other than Westbrook to catch fire. The Grizzlies can shut down Westbrook at least somewhat.
Orlando (-3.5) over Minnesota. I wonder if the Wolves will only play with 4 players tonight. I think they'll be Wiggins, LaVine, Hamilton, and Payne. I think they'll do it just to see if they'll get away with it. (it sucks being a Wolves fan right now).
San Antonio (-12.5) over Denver. The Spurs are trying (and succeeding) to peak right now. It's weird that they can seem to do that.
Sacramento (+6.5) over New Orleans. I'm picking a random "Kings competence game". I dunno.
Portland (-10.5) over LA Lakers. Picking the good team in this one. Not overthinking it.
Happy Easter everyone.
I didn't write yesterday because I was having trouble with my internet, it was crazy slow and not loading pages. Turns out my issue was with Firefox and I could've wrote yesterday. Go figure.
Results 4/1
Charlotte (-4.5) over Detroit. Detroit is fresh off a very good win over Atlanta. They then have to travel and play a desperate team. They aren't consistent enough for my liking.
Hornets won by 24. Won $190.
A dominant victory. The Pistons were inconsistently bad, the Hornets inconsistently good. weird.
Philadelphia (+10.0) over Washington. I guess I just don't trust Washington to win by as much as they should.
Wizards won by 13. Lost $100.
I was actually decently close to this. This was all 4th quarter though. The 76ers won the 4th by 18. Shows how the other three quarters went.
San Antonio (-9.5) over Orlando. Seems like a lot of points but I'll take the Spurs to do what they need to.
Spurs won by 12. Won $190.
Another "4th quarter foot off the gas", the Magic won the 4th by 10 and still lost by 12.
New York (+10.0) over Brooklyn. Ugh, I can't imagine this game is going to be very high quality. I continue to not believe in the Nets, but 10 points is a lot for a team I don't particularly care for.
Nets won by 2. Won $190.
This game does not give me confidence in the Nets...
Boston (-3.0) over Indiana. Boston is playing at a high level right now and Indiana is on a traveling back-to-back.
Celtics won by 13. Won by $190.
The Pacers are decent this year, but, make no mistake, the talent level is lacking. Watch out for them next year.
Chicago (-5.0) over Milwaukee. The Bulls are better than the Bucks and I don't think Chicago is going to sit secure in their playoff position.
Bucks won by 4. Lost $100.
Milwaukee is weird. I don't think they'll make much noise in the playoffs this year but it'll be interesting to see how they do moving forward. They are approaching good team status
Dallas (+2.5) over Oklahoma City. Westbrook continues on his MVP campaign but Dallas needs to keep pace to maintain their playoff position.
Mavericks won by 4. Won $190.
This game was 135-131. Sounds like it was entertaining. This is a lost season for OKC but they are in good position for playoffs, for what it's worth
Houston (-11.5) over Sacramento. I'm going gut on this one. It's a lot of points and I don't really have a lot of confidence in the pick, but I'm going with it anyway.
Rockets won by 4. Lost $100.
A surprisingly competent game from the Kings. They'll do that.
Minnesota (+9.5) over Toronto. I picked the Wolves the last time these two played and it worked out. I think a similar thing this time. The Raptors aren't playing as well as they should and Wiggins will want to do well.
Raptors won by 14. Lost $100.
It was a little ambitious, I guess. This game was painful to watch. Full disclosure: I can't stand listening to the Raptors broadcasters. They're not as bad as some, and they at least acknowledge the other team has existed all year, but I can't stand Jack Armstrong. Sorry!
Utah (-4.0) over Denver. Going with the "hard to beat a team twice in a week".
Jazz won by 14. Won $190.
My logic worked again!!
Portland (-3.0) over LA Clippers. Clippers have to travel up the coast after playing yesterday.
Clippers won by 4. Lost $100.
Clippers won the second half by 17, which tells you how the first half went. Usually if there's a discrepancy between halves, the second half is worse for the team on the second half of a back to back. Defying the odds over here.
New Orleans (-8.0) over LA Lakers. The Pelicans should dominate, though I have to wonder if this is a random Lakers competence possibility.
Pelicans won by 21. Won $190.
Anthony Davis is great, even if the rest of the team isn't great. They could be great soon, if the coach is up to it, right now they're only good.
April and daily Totals: Bets: $1200. Winnings: $1330. NET: +$130. Record: 7-5
I never reviewed the yearly totals so I'll do that here. Good start to April though.
I finished March in the positives, not a ton but every little bit helps.
After March, I have a 2015 NET total of an even $600. I'm RICH!
Another big day today, 10 games.
The Games 4/3 Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted
Charlotte (+5.0) over Indiana. I like Charlotte to keep it close or win. Indiana doesn't usually blow teams out and Charlotte CAN play well, unknown whether they will.
Washington (-14.5) over New York. Boy, I don't like this. Washington is inconsistent and New York sucks (but is also inconsistent) so we'll see.
Milwaukee (+5.5) over Boston. I like Boston but I'm getting a gut feeling that Milwaukee's going to turn it on to finish the season.
Toronto (+2.5) over Brooklyn. The Raptors need to beat the Nets. The Nets are ok but far from great. The Raptors want to be great. They need this win.
Chicago (-9.0) over Detroit. Drummond is playing great but the Bulls can mostly cancel that with Noah, every other position is pretty clearly in Chicago's favor.
Memphis (-6.5) over Oklahoma City. I think Memphis is turning a corner and the Thunder need someone other than Westbrook to catch fire. The Grizzlies can shut down Westbrook at least somewhat.
Orlando (-3.5) over Minnesota. I wonder if the Wolves will only play with 4 players tonight. I think they'll be Wiggins, LaVine, Hamilton, and Payne. I think they'll do it just to see if they'll get away with it. (it sucks being a Wolves fan right now).
San Antonio (-12.5) over Denver. The Spurs are trying (and succeeding) to peak right now. It's weird that they can seem to do that.
Sacramento (+6.5) over New Orleans. I'm picking a random "Kings competence game". I dunno.
Portland (-10.5) over LA Lakers. Picking the good team in this one. Not overthinking it.
Happy Easter everyone.
Wednesday, 1 April 2015
Traditionalists v. Analytics. Picks 4/1
I've started a couple blogs this way and I'll do it again. I like statistics, analytics and such. I saw on twitter that people were slamming Steve Simmons, an outspoken hockey analytics critic. I don't know much about him, he strikes me as a journalist who is too passionate about his position. But it brings up some interesting thoughts, the "battle" between the traditionalists and analytics.
Traditionalists use statistics to belabor their point as much as analysts (shorthand it to that for ease), they just use different (and simpler) statistics. Things like Shots on Goal and Hits are held up as the true measures of the sport against Corsi and Fenwick. Another difference is the emphasis. Traditionalists tend to argue in favor of immeasurable stats like "grit" and "leadership" whereas the analysts look at how they play. Just by reading that last sentence, you might be tempted to just accept that the analysts have the right of it. Players should be judged based on what thy actually produce. There will always be resistance. Moneyball is a great example of the integration of advanced stats into baseball, but the Athletics haven't won a World Series (the Red Sox have, using similar emphasis).
This year, a team that can be used to argue against analytics would be my Calgary Flames. They are currently sitting in a playoff position and are in good shape to stay there. The thing is, the Flames have terrible advanced stats. There's no measurable reason for them to do as well as they are, besides, of course, the goals for and against each game. So the traditionalists can point to the Flames and laugh and say "didn't see that coming, did you?" Funny story, though, the Flames are also one of those teams that traditionalists and analysts agreed would be terrible. The ambiguity of some traditional measures (ie grit) is the only reason it's not as easy to make fun of tradition for missing the Flames.
So really, everyone's in the same boat. Except that advanced stats are better
(*Side note: Blocked shots are a great example of a stat that divides analytics and traditionalists. The Traditionalists say "how great! He sacrifices his body to prevent a goal scoring opportunity." The Analytics say "good job, but a really good player would prevent a goal scoring opportunity by getting the puck into the offensive zone")
Results 3/31
Boston (+3.5) over Charlotte. Boston is much more consistent than Charlotte. Charlotte is better than Boston but we'll see.
Celtics won by 12. Won $190.
Boston is playing so well. Charlotte is not. The Hornets needed this win but Boston's rolling.
Philadelphia (-4.5) over LA Lakers. At this point, the 76ers are much better than the Lakers.
Lakers won by 2 (OT). Lost $100.
This was surprising to me. But the Lakers have games where they're very competitive. To be fair, it is the 76ers (who are actively tanking), but still.
Houston (+1.5) over Toronto. Still don't trust the Raptors.
Raptors won by 3. Lost $100.
It was decently close all game but the Raptors came back continuously. Maybe this is the spark Toronto needs, still playing without Lowry.
Atlanta (-8.5) over Milwaukee. Atlanta should dominate. They may not, but that's a risk I'm willing to take.
Hawks won by 13. Won $190.
Good win over a team the Hawks should beat. It was good.
Memphis (-10.0) over Sacramento. Sacramento kind of stinks and Memphis is great.
Grizzlies won by 14. Won $190.
Solid win by the Grizzlies. Sacramento continues to experiment.
Utah (-7.0) over Minnesota. Utah is pretty good at defense and the Wolves stink at offense. The non-tanking continues.
Jazz won by 20. Won $190.
No surprise (for me anyway).
Phoenix (+8.5) over Portland. I think Phoenix will keep it close.
Trailblazers won by 23. Lost $100.
Bummer of a loss for Phoenix who got off to a poor defensive start and then got destroyed in the third quarter.
Totals: Bets: $700. Winnings: $760. NET: +$60. Record: 4-3.
March Totals: NET: +$73. Record: 63-54-3.
Any day that's a positive is a good day.
I didn't have time to do picks yesterday, but I think I would have gone 1-3 or 2-2 (if I was lucky), so it's ok by me that I didn't get to it.
Big one today, 12 games.
The Games 4/1 Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted
Charlotte (-4.5) over Detroit. Detroit is fresh off a very good win over Atlanta. They then have to travel and play a desperate team. They aren't consistent enough for my liking.
Philadelphia (+10.0) over Washington. I guess I just don't trust Washington to win by as much as they should.
San Antonio (-9.5) over Orlando. Seems like a lot of points but I'll take the Spurs to do what they need to.
New York (+10.0) over Brooklyn. Ugh, I can't imagine this game is going to be very high quality. I continue to not believe in the Nets, but 10 points is a lot for a team I don't particularly care for.
Boston (-3.0) over Indiana. Boston is playing at a high level right now and Indiana is on a traveling back-to-back.
Chicago (-5.0) over Milwaukee. The Bulls are better than the Bucks and I don't think Chicago is going to sit secure in their playoff position.
Dallas (+2.5) over Oklahoma City. Westbrook continues on his MVP campaign but Dallas needs to keep pace to maintain their playoff position.
Houston (-11.5) over Sacramento. I'm going gut on this one. It's a lot of points and I don't really have a lot of confidence in the pick, but I'm going with it anyway.
Minnesota (+9.5) over Toronto. I picked the Wolves the last time these two played and it worked out. I think a similar thing this time. The Raptors aren't playing as well as they should and Wiggins will want to do well.
Utah (-4.0) over Denver. Going with the "hard to beat a team twice in a week".
Portland (-3.0) over LA Clippers. Clippers have to travel up the coast after playing yesterday.
New Orleans (-8.0) over LA Lakers. The Pelicans should dominate, though I have to wonder if this is a random Lakers competence possibility.
Happy April Fools day everyone. I think it's dumb but others don't apparently. Don't do or say anything stupid.
Traditionalists use statistics to belabor their point as much as analysts (shorthand it to that for ease), they just use different (and simpler) statistics. Things like Shots on Goal and Hits are held up as the true measures of the sport against Corsi and Fenwick. Another difference is the emphasis. Traditionalists tend to argue in favor of immeasurable stats like "grit" and "leadership" whereas the analysts look at how they play. Just by reading that last sentence, you might be tempted to just accept that the analysts have the right of it. Players should be judged based on what thy actually produce. There will always be resistance. Moneyball is a great example of the integration of advanced stats into baseball, but the Athletics haven't won a World Series (the Red Sox have, using similar emphasis).
This year, a team that can be used to argue against analytics would be my Calgary Flames. They are currently sitting in a playoff position and are in good shape to stay there. The thing is, the Flames have terrible advanced stats. There's no measurable reason for them to do as well as they are, besides, of course, the goals for and against each game. So the traditionalists can point to the Flames and laugh and say "didn't see that coming, did you?" Funny story, though, the Flames are also one of those teams that traditionalists and analysts agreed would be terrible. The ambiguity of some traditional measures (ie grit) is the only reason it's not as easy to make fun of tradition for missing the Flames.
So really, everyone's in the same boat. Except that advanced stats are better
(*Side note: Blocked shots are a great example of a stat that divides analytics and traditionalists. The Traditionalists say "how great! He sacrifices his body to prevent a goal scoring opportunity." The Analytics say "good job, but a really good player would prevent a goal scoring opportunity by getting the puck into the offensive zone")
Results 3/31
Boston (+3.5) over Charlotte. Boston is much more consistent than Charlotte. Charlotte is better than Boston but we'll see.
Celtics won by 12. Won $190.
Boston is playing so well. Charlotte is not. The Hornets needed this win but Boston's rolling.
Philadelphia (-4.5) over LA Lakers. At this point, the 76ers are much better than the Lakers.
Lakers won by 2 (OT). Lost $100.
This was surprising to me. But the Lakers have games where they're very competitive. To be fair, it is the 76ers (who are actively tanking), but still.
Houston (+1.5) over Toronto. Still don't trust the Raptors.
Raptors won by 3. Lost $100.
It was decently close all game but the Raptors came back continuously. Maybe this is the spark Toronto needs, still playing without Lowry.
Atlanta (-8.5) over Milwaukee. Atlanta should dominate. They may not, but that's a risk I'm willing to take.
Hawks won by 13. Won $190.
Good win over a team the Hawks should beat. It was good.
Memphis (-10.0) over Sacramento. Sacramento kind of stinks and Memphis is great.
Grizzlies won by 14. Won $190.
Solid win by the Grizzlies. Sacramento continues to experiment.
Utah (-7.0) over Minnesota. Utah is pretty good at defense and the Wolves stink at offense. The non-tanking continues.
Jazz won by 20. Won $190.
No surprise (for me anyway).
Phoenix (+8.5) over Portland. I think Phoenix will keep it close.
Trailblazers won by 23. Lost $100.
Bummer of a loss for Phoenix who got off to a poor defensive start and then got destroyed in the third quarter.
Totals: Bets: $700. Winnings: $760. NET: +$60. Record: 4-3.
March Totals: NET: +$73. Record: 63-54-3.
Any day that's a positive is a good day.
I didn't have time to do picks yesterday, but I think I would have gone 1-3 or 2-2 (if I was lucky), so it's ok by me that I didn't get to it.
Big one today, 12 games.
The Games 4/1 Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted
Charlotte (-4.5) over Detroit. Detroit is fresh off a very good win over Atlanta. They then have to travel and play a desperate team. They aren't consistent enough for my liking.
Philadelphia (+10.0) over Washington. I guess I just don't trust Washington to win by as much as they should.
San Antonio (-9.5) over Orlando. Seems like a lot of points but I'll take the Spurs to do what they need to.
New York (+10.0) over Brooklyn. Ugh, I can't imagine this game is going to be very high quality. I continue to not believe in the Nets, but 10 points is a lot for a team I don't particularly care for.
Boston (-3.0) over Indiana. Boston is playing at a high level right now and Indiana is on a traveling back-to-back.
Chicago (-5.0) over Milwaukee. The Bulls are better than the Bucks and I don't think Chicago is going to sit secure in their playoff position.
Dallas (+2.5) over Oklahoma City. Westbrook continues on his MVP campaign but Dallas needs to keep pace to maintain their playoff position.
Houston (-11.5) over Sacramento. I'm going gut on this one. It's a lot of points and I don't really have a lot of confidence in the pick, but I'm going with it anyway.
Minnesota (+9.5) over Toronto. I picked the Wolves the last time these two played and it worked out. I think a similar thing this time. The Raptors aren't playing as well as they should and Wiggins will want to do well.
Utah (-4.0) over Denver. Going with the "hard to beat a team twice in a week".
Portland (-3.0) over LA Clippers. Clippers have to travel up the coast after playing yesterday.
New Orleans (-8.0) over LA Lakers. The Pelicans should dominate, though I have to wonder if this is a random Lakers competence possibility.
Happy April Fools day everyone. I think it's dumb but others don't apparently. Don't do or say anything stupid.
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