[Blank]. Picks 3/30

Usually when I don't write anything clever/interesting it's because I'm lazy. I've been sitting here for five minutes and I can't think of anything. Nothing. I'm feeling unwell but I don't want to write about that. That's uninteresting.

Here's my results from last week


Results 3/27

Washington (-4.0) over Charlotte.  Really no reason. Two teams I don't trust at the moment.
Wizards won by 3. Lost $100.
Stupid Wizards, it's all their fault. So close but no cigar. A win both teams needed. But only one can get it. In the meantime, I lost and that's all I cared about.

Detroit (-2.0) over Orlando. Orlando kind of stinks. And Detroit... doesn't? I'm betting that Detroit is better.
Pistons won by 14. Won $190.
Good win by the Pistons. Granted, they should beat Orlando, but teams don't always beat the teams they should.

Philadelphia (+12.5) over LA Clippers. Another "I think the 76ers will not lose by that much". We'll see.
Clippers won by 21. Lost $100.
A little ambitious of a pick perhaps. I've made worse ones before.

New York (+10.0) over Boston. Picking New York...? I dunno. 10 is a lot for a team that really doesn't have that great of roster.
Celtics won by 4. Won $190.
It was a close game. Good for the Knicks. Boston should have won by more, but it's not how, it's how many. And a win's a win. And cliches

Cleveland (-9.0) over Brooklyn. Cleveland still needs to build for the playoffs. I don't think they're quite there yet.
Nets won by 8. Lost $100.
An inspired performance by Brooklyn.

LA Lakers (+8.5) over Toronto. I'm picking the Lakers out of protest. Toronto needs to pull it together before it's too late.
Raptors won by 11. Lost $100.
The Raptors needed this. And of course, it's the one time in a while that I pick against them. That's what you get for not believing.

Miami (+9.0) over Atlanta. This makes me nervous because I don't like picking against Atlanta, but they've been struggling recently. What up with that?
Hawks won by 13. Lost $100.
Well, guess you can't win them all.

Golden State (-3.5) over Memphis. This is a great matchup. Number one vs number two. I think Golden State can win by 4 or more.
Warriors won by 23. Won $190.
They did win by more than 4. I was right (for once).

Houston (-13.5) over Minnesota. The Wolves are "not tanking", and I tend to believe that, kind of. I just think all their nagging injuries are kind of convenient.
Rockets won by 10. Lost $100.
Huh. Usually picking against the Wolves works.

New Orleans (-6.5) over Sacramento. The Pelicans are in trouble in terms of playoffs. They need this game.
Pelicans won by 14. Won $190.
Good solid win. The Pelicans are building something, we'll see if they can see it through.

San Antonio (-9.5) over Dallas. This is a crazy spread but it's hard to beat a team twice in a week, especially when that team is the Spurs.
Spurs won by 18. Won $190.
It's tough to beat a team twice in a week. The Spurs are not the powerhouse they usually are but they will be a hard out in the playoffs

Utah (+2.5) over Denver. Two high altitude team. Utah is a little better right now, but not by much.
Nuggets won by 16. Lost $100.
I can't figure out the Nuggets right now. Are they good? Are they not? Why so much better now than they used to be?

Portland (+1.0) over Phoenix. Taking the playoff team here.
Trailblazers won by 6. Won $190.
It worked!

Totals: Bets: $1300.   Winnings: $1140.  NET: -$160.  Record: 6-7
March Totals: NET: +$13.   Record: 59-51-3.

I did much better than I thought I was going to. Also, to date in the month, I've bet $11,300 and made a profit of $13. Hardly seems worth it, eh?

Seven games on tap today.

The Games 3/30  Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted

Boston (+3.5) over Charlotte. Boston is much more consistent than Charlotte. Charlotte is better than Boston but we'll see.

Philadelphia (-4.5) over LA Lakers. At this point, the 76ers are much better than the Lakers.

Houston (+1.5) over Toronto. Still don't trust the Raptors

Atlanta (-8.5) over Milwaukee. Atlanta should dominate. They may not, but that's a risk I'm willing to take.

Memphis (-10.0) over Sacramento. Sacramento kind of stinks and Memphis is great

Utah (-7.0) over Minnesota. Utah is pretty good at defense and the Wolves stink at offense. The non-tanking continues.

Phoenix (+8.5) over Portland. I think Phoenix will keep it close.

Pressure. Picks 3/27

I didn't post yesterday. The reason is somewhat, if not exceptionally, interesting. I had two job interviews. One for a job I want, one not so much. I received an offer for one but not one yet for the other. Today I have some wisdom to share with you, and it was reiterated to me today.

If you reach a point in a conversation where you feel the need to say "no pressure", you're probably pressuring them and you know it.

Anyway, that's my spiel. I missed the day before because I forgot. Whoops.

Results 3/24

Toronto (-2.5) over Detroit.  This is getting silly. The Raptors need to beat Detroit by more than 3.
Pistons won by 4. Lost $100.
Seriously, Raptors? This is getting extremely concerning. I don't know what's going on with them.

Oklahoma City (-10.0) over LA Lakers. The Lakers have had games where they're weirdly competitive, I don't think this is it.
Thunder won by 10 (PUSH). Won $100.
A push, decent win by the Thunder as they continue to push for the playoffs. The Lakers are hoping to move up in the lottery.

Miami (-1.5) over Milwaukee.  Odds: 1.95.  Hmmm, I trust Miami over Milwaukee... but still....
Bucks won by 1. Lost $100.
The Bucks surprise me, I didn't think they'd take it. They sure showed me.

San Antonio (-3.0) over Dallas. Just picking the hotter team in this one. Nothing more than that.
Mavericks won by 7. Lost $100.
Can't get a read on the Spurs. They'll be fine come playoff time but they're kind of a bad bet right now.

Philadelphia (+8.5) over Sacramento.  I love picking Philly to lose by less than they should. Don't know why.
Kings won by 1. Won $190.
This is an extended training camp for the Kings. They've talked about this end-of-season being an evaluation of talent time and I agree. I think they'll be much stronger next year.

Golden State (-7.0) over Portland. Portland is not playing super great, not poorly, but not fantastic. Gimme the Warriors.
Warriors won by 14. Won $190.
It's nothing against all the good teams out there, but I feel like any of the spreads are "will the Warriors win?" I don't have any numbers, but I doubt they've had many close games this season.

Totals: Bets: $600.  Winnings: $480.  NET: -$120.  Records: 2-3-1

March Totals:  NET: +$173.  Record: 53-44-3.

Still ahead. Unfortunate to not have OKC get another point but what can you do?

13 games today. Big one.

The Games 3/27  Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted

Washington (-4.0) over Charlotte.  Really no reason. Two teams I don't trust at the moment.

Detroit (-2.0) over Orlando. Orlando kind of stinks. And Detroit... doesn't? I'm betting that Detroit is better.

Philadelphia (+12.5) over LA Clippers. Another "I think the 76ers will not lose by that much". We'll see.

New York (+10.0) over Boston. Picking New York...? I dunno. 10 is a lot for a team that really doesn't have that great of roster.

Cleveland (-9.0) over Brooklyn. Cleveland still needs to build for the playoffs. I don't think they're quite there yet.

LA Lakers (+8.5) over Toronto. I'm picking the Lakers out of protest. Toronto needs to pull it together before it's too late.

Miami (+9.0) over Atlanta. This makes me nervous because I don't like picking against Atlanta, but they've been struggling recently. What up with that?

Golden State (-3.5) over Memphis. This is a great matchup. Number one vs number two. I think Golden State can win by 4 or more.

Houston (-13.5) over Minnesota. The Wolves are "not tanking", and I tend to believe that, kind of. I just think all their nagging injuries are kind of convenient.

New Orleans (-6.5) over Sacramento. The Pelicans are in trouble in terms of playoffs. They need this game.

San Antonio (-9.5) over Dallas. This is a crazy spread but it's hard to beat a team twice in a week, especially when that team is the Spurs.

Utah (+2.5) over Denver. Two high altitude team. Utah is a little better right now, but not by much.

Portland (+1.0) over Phoenix. Taking the playoff team here.

I also started watching How I Met Your Mother. So that's fun.

For Shame. Picks 3/24

I feel bad for you guys. I've been lazy when it comes to these top posts. I'm going to say it's because I received no responses to my question I posted yesterday. So it's your fault (it's really not).

Results 3/23

Houston (+1.0) over Indiana. Interesting that Indiana is favored in this game. Maybe Harden is hurt or something. I don't know. I like Houston.
Rockets won by 10. Won $190.
Harden went for 44. His game is unwatchable because of the sheer magnitude of free throws but it is effective when it comes to scoring. I don't think he wins MVP but he definitely deserves to be in the running

Boston (+5.0) over Brooklyn. I would've picked Boston even if they were the favorite. I don't know why, maybe that's just my anti-Brooklyn bias that I've developed over the course of this thing.
Celtics won by 19. Won $190.
Boston is going to get into the playoffs and that might set their rebuild back. OR they make the playoffs, still don't have to pay anybody, make splashes in free agency, and give Brad Stevens actual good players to coach. Man, Brad Stevens is awesome.

Memphis (-13.5) over New York. It's always a good idea to bet against New York.
Grizzlies won by 21. Won $190.
This was actually kind of dangerous, Memphis doesn't usually blow teams out, but New York's New York and that's what happens.

Chicago (-6.5) over Charlotte. Odds: 1.86. This is a gut pick. Charlotte played yesterday, yes, but they could easily win this straight up. It's an uncomfortable pick.
Bulls won by 12. Won $186.
Charlotte does not look good. Chicago looks fine. We'll see how the playoffs go for the Bulls. We'll see if playoffs happen for Charlotte.

Utah (-10.5) over Minnesota. Utah is playing well, Minnesota is not. That, coupled with the injuries causing a fairly large talent gap, means that Utah should kill.
Wolves won by 2 (OT). Lost $100.
This was surprising. The Jazz were missing two of their best players. But the Wolves only played with seven all game. So toss-up there. Poor loss for the Jazz but it's not like they're competing for the playoffs.

Golden State (-11.0) over Washington. Odds: 1.95. The Wizards are doing well recently but going out to Oakland, I like the Warriors.
Warriors won by 31. Won $195.
This was a close game at halftime. Then the Wizards scored 8 in the third, and the Warriors scored 21. That'll kill ya.

Results: Bets: $600.  Winnings: $951.  NET: +$351.   Record: 5-1.

March Totals:  NET: +$293.  Record: 51-41-2

Great day. Ended up giving myself a decent cushion. I hope it sticks.

 Six games today.

The Games 3/24  Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted.

Toronto (-2.5) over Detroit.  This is getting silly. The Raptors need to beat Detroit by more than 3.

Oklahoma City (-10.0) over LA Lakers. The Lakers have had games where they're weirdly competitive, I don't think this is it.

Miami (-1.5) over Milwaukee.  Odds: 1.95.  Hmmm, I trust Miami over Milwaukee... but still....

San Antonio (-3.0) over Dallas. Just picking the hotter team in this one. Nothing more than that.

Philadelphia (+8.5) over Sacramento.  I love picking Philly to lose by less than they should. Don't know why.

Golden State (-7.0) over Portland. Portland is not playing super great, not poorly, but not fantastic. Gimme the Warriors.

Lots of favorites today.

Opinions? Picks 3/23

I'm looking to do some independent research, specifically sports statistical analysis. This might be the first time I'm looking for crowd interaction. What do you think I should research? Bearing in mind that this will be in my free time (which will soon be not as plentiful, hopefully) and obviously I'm not going to invest money into. I'm thinking something in hockey because it's something that's prominent where I live, but any ideas are welcome.

So, thoughts?

 Results 3/21

Philadelphia (-6.0) over New York. Back to back after an overtime game will spell the end for New York. That and they aren't very good.
76ers won by16. Won $190.
Yeah, the Knicks stink and the Sixers are competitive. They're building something in Philly, which is unfortunate that this management group might be rewarded for their tanking.


Orlando (+7.5) over Portland. I think Portland wins but I also think it's closer than it should be.
Magic won by 7. Won $190.
I didn't expect Orlando to actually win, bad loss for Portland.


Denver (+8.0) over Miami. I don't know if I like Denver in this game but this seems like the type of game they would win or at least be very competitive.
Heat won by 17. Lost $100.
Meh, unfortunate but I'm not surprised necessarily.


Cleveland (-9.5) over Indiana. Boy, I don't like this, but I think the Cavs go off in this.
Cavaliers won by 3. Lost $100.
I guess I could've seen this coming, Indiana tends to keep it close. I guess the Cavs will take it but I didn't care for it.


Milwaukee (+2.0) over Brooklyn. Will Milwaukee start to play well again? Who knows, hopefully, though.
Nets won by 2 (3OT) (PUSH). Won $100
At least it wasn't a loss, I suppose. Triple overtime is brutal, though.


Atlanta (+1.5) over Oklahoma City. Atlanta is actually an underdog in this game. As good as OKC is playing, I'll take the Hawks.
Thunder won by 8. Lost $100.
I have to say I was surprised by this. Atlanta was in pretty good shape halfway into the fourth and they lost by 8. Probably just ran out of gas.


Toronto (+2.0) over Chicago. Toronto needs to play better, and this would be a good game to start.
Bulls won by 16. Lost $100.
I don't know what's going on with this Raptors team. I guess Lowry is out but still, they need to pick it up a bit.


Boston (+9.0) over San Antonio. Another one where I think Spurs win but Boston keeps it close.
Spurs won by 12. Lost $100.
This is a bad streak for me. Close to the spread but close doesn't really count for anything.


Memphis (+3.5) over Dallas. I think Memphis bigs are too tough for Dallas.
Grizzlies won by 11. Won $190.
Memphis is apparently the 2 seed in the West. I had no idea. It would be in their best interest to maintain their standing.


Charlotte (-4.0) over Sacramento. I don't trust either team, but I imagine Charlotte has the decided advantage.
Kings won by 10. Lost $100.
Good win for the Kings, bad loss for the Hornets who are trying to stay in th playoff race in the East.


Golden State (-13.5) over New Orleans. New Orleans played yesterday, are likely without Davis again, and Golden State is dynamite.
Warriors won by 16. Won $190.
Dominating performance, again. Davis was out, but so was Thompson. I think that, as good as Thompson is, Davis means more to his team.


LA Clippers (-7.0) over Washington. LA is better and at home. I still don't trust Washington.
Clippers won by 14. Won $190.
LA is still trying to reintegrate Griffin into their lineup. I think they're well on their way.

Totals: Bets: $1200.  Winnings: $1050.  NET: -$150.  Record: 5-6-1

March Totals:  NET: -$58.  46-40-2.

Back into the negatives *sigh*.  Still 6 games over .500 on record though, for what it's worth.
Six games tonight. 7 days left in the month.

The Games 3/23  Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted

Houston (+1.0) over Indiana. Interesting that Indiana is favored in this game. Maybe Harden is hurt or something. I don't know. I like Houston.

Boston (+5.0) over Brooklyn. I would've picked Boston even if they were the favorite. I don't know why, maybe that's just my anti-Brooklyn bias that I've developed over the course of this thing.

Memphis (-13.5) over New York. It's always a good idea to bet against New York.

Chicago (-6.5) over Charlotte. Odds: 1.86. This is a gut pick. Charlotte played yesterday, yes, but they could easily win this straight up. It's an uncomfortable pick.

Utah (-10.5) over Minnesota. Utah is playing well, Minnesota is not. That, coupled with the injuries causing a fairly large talent gap, means that Utah should kill.

Golden State (-11.0) over Washington. Odds: 1.95. The Wizards are doing well recently but going out to Oakland, I like the Warriors.

Short as Can Be. Picks 3/20

Due to some scheduled events, this blog is going to be quite short. Sorry.

Games from yesterday.

Results 3/19

Minnesota (+1.0 ) Over New York. In the battle of tankers, the Wolves don't suck enough.
Timberwolves won by 3 (OT). Won $190.
This game was ugly and then went to overtime. Ugh.

Houston (-7.0) over Denver. Picking against Denver is so dangerous. They're not at home, though, and Houston is better?
Rockets won by 10. Won $190.
Harden went off for 50. That's pretty tough to recover from

New Orleans (-1.5) over Phoenix. Nether team is very consistent. Pbth who knows.
Suns won by 2. Lost $100.
Close game between two inconsistent teams. Anthony Davis didn't play and I wish I'd known that before making the pick.

Utah (-4.5) over LA Lakers. I certainly trust Utah more than LA.
Jazz won by 7. Won $190.
A lot closer than I thought it would be but the Jazz did enough to make me happy. Because it's all about me.


Totals: Bets: $400.  Winnings: $570.  NET: +$170. Record: 3-1.


March Totals: NET: +$92.  41-34-1.


In the positives again. With an excellent opportunity to build up some credit. 12 games tonight.


Quick Hits.


The Games 3/20   Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted.


Philadelphia (-6.0) over New York. Back to back after an overtime game will spell the end for New York. That and they aren't very good.


Orlando (+7.5) over Portland. I think Portland wins but I also think it's closer than it should be.


Denver (+8.0) over Miami. I don't know if I like Denver in this game but this seems like the type of game they would win or at least be very competitive.


Cleveland (-9.5) over Indiana. Boy, I don't like this, but I think the Cavs go off in this.


Milwaukee (+2.0) over Brooklyn. Will Milwaukee start to play well again? Who knows, hopefully, though.


Atlanta (+1.5) over Oklahoma City. Atlanta is actually an underdog in this game. As good as OKC is playing, I'll take the Hawks.


Toronto (+2.0) over Chicago.Toronto needs to play better, and this would be a good game to start.


Boston (+9.0) over San Antonio. Another one where I think Spurs win but Boston keeps it close.


Memphis (+3.5) over Dallas. I think Memphis bigs are too tough for Dallas.


Charlotte (-4.0) over Sacramento. I don't trust either team, but I imagine Charlotte has the decided advantage.


Golden State (-13.5) over New Orleans. New Orleans played yesterday, are likely without Davis again, and Golden State is dynamite.


LA Clippers (-7.0) over Washington. LA is better and at home. I still don't trust Washington.


Quick and easy. I had some schedule stuff that made this shorter than usual.

Meh. Picks 3/19

I can't think of anything to write about to make the beginning of this interesting. So this is what you get.

Results 3/18

Brooklyn (+11.5) over Cleveland. These two teams don't care for each other (or is it just Brooklyn not liking Lebron...?). This game could go either way. I actually think that Cleveland will roll but I'm just afraid enough of Brooklyn's inconsistency to try to sound like a genius when they keep it close-ish.
Cavaliers won by 25. Lost $100.
Welp. Got that one wrong. It was close for a quarter and a half. And that's about it.

Philadelphia (+2.0) over Detroit. Am I crazy for picking a Philly? Probably, but here's my reasoning: Detroit has stunk until yesterday, they had to travel, Philly has been competitive. And that's it. Go Sixers!
76ers won by 11. Won $190.
Detroit continues to play poorly. Philly continues to be competitive. That' the way it's going right now.

Minnesota (+11.5) over Toronto. I think Minnesota keeps it close because Wiggins wants to win in Canada and the team wants Wiggins to win in Canada. Toronto is a much better team than the Wolves but that hasn't stopped the Raptors from playing disturbingly bad before.
Raptors won by 5. Won $190.
Much closer than it should have been. The Wolves are banged up, have 14 wins, and are on the road. If there's such thing as a poor win, this might have been one.

Portland (-2.5) over Miami. I'm calling the Heat win over Cleveland more of an aberration than a trend. This is a game that Portland needs to win (to be fair, same goes for Miami), and Portland is better.
Heat won by 4. Lost $100.
I watched this game. Classic Wade game. And it was delightful.

Boston (+7.0) over Oklahoma City. Everything tells me that OKC should dominate EXCEPT that nobody dominates the Celtics.
Thunder won by 4. Won $190.
Good win for the Thunder. Good for the Celtics (for me) for keeping it close

Chicago (-1.0) over Indiana. Indiana is weirdly competent and their coach really should be up for Coach of the Year (except that that's not how it works), but Chicago is better and should win.
Bulls won by 17. Won $190.
This was close until about 7 minutes left in the game. Then, in just a few possessions, it was double digits.

Dallas (-12.5) over Orlando. Magic played last night and Dallas is on the up and up. I like them to smoke Orlando.
Mavericks won by 5. Lost $100.
I guess the Mavs are still on the up and up. The should've won by more from a pure talent perspective.

San Antonio (-6.0) over Milwaukee. Odds 1.86. Both teams played last night but Milwaukee didn't get blasted in the media by their coach. Watch for the Spurs to come out with some fire.
Spurs won by 11. Won $190.
This was not looking good for me up until near the end. Though, the Spurs were mostly in control, how much in control was a question.

LA Clippers (-8.0) over Sacramento. Don't like this one but the Clippers are at least 8 points better than the Kings, even on a back-to-back.
Clippers won by 11. Won $190.
This one went down to the wire. Clippers had an 8 point lead with the ball with 23 seconds left. The result was a Turkoglu 3 and they won by 11. One of the only times I'll cheer for the Clippers.

Atlanta (+6.5) over Golden State. This is a standings pick. Golden State is fairly secure and are looking forward to the playoffs, I believe, and are missing Klay Thompson. Atlanta needs to keep winning.
Warriors won by 19. Lost $100.
Powerful win by the Warriors. They came to play. Both teams are pretty secure in their standing as it turns out. Atlanta is ahead of second seed Cleveland by 10 games and Golden State is up on second seed Memphis by 7.5.

Washington (+3.5) over Utah. I'm still holding to the "Utah is not that good" opinion, though my grip is getting weaker and weaker.
Wizards won by 4. Won $190.
Utah's defensive efficiency since the All-Star Break has been incredible. Their offense failed them in this one, though.

Results: Bets: $1100.  Winnings: $1330.  NET: +$230.  Record: 7-4.

March Totals: NET: -$78.  Record: 38-33-1

It doesn't take long to turn your fortunes around. Still in the hole but pretty close.

Four games tonight.

 The Games 3/19   Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted.

Minnesota (+1.0 ) Over New York. In the battle of tankers, the Wolves don't suck enough.

Houston (-7.0) over Denver. Picking against Denver is so dangerous. They're not at home, though, and Houston is better?

New Orleans (-1.5) over Phoenix. Nether team is very consistent. Pbth who knows.

Utah (-4.5) over LA Lakers. I certainly trust Utah more than LA.

Winning Time. Picks 3/18

I love basketball. I think that's fairly obvious. I watched an ESPN 30 for 30 called "Winning Time: Reggie Miller vs the New York Knicks". It chronicles a couple of playoff series in the early 90s between Indiana and New York. They were brutally competitive and they hated each other. The teams were very similar in everything except where they came from (Indiana and New York are... different). There's something that basketball has that few other sports has. There's only 12 players on a roster, everyone plays offense and defense, and players can play almost the entire game.

What this adds up to is you get to know players and they get to know each other, for good or for ill. I would not be able to recognize half of the Vikings roster, even if I know their names. Stories are a large part of why we watch sports and there are a lot stories to be found in basketball.

Results from yesterday (spoilers, it's not that pretty)

Results 3/17

Memphis (-5.0) over Detroit. Detroit is kind of a train-wreck right now.
Pistons won by 10. Lost $100.
The Pistons got it together last night. Got hot in the second half for sure.

San Antonio (-14.5) over New York.  New York stinks and the Spurs don't. I think the Spurs are putting it together.
Knicks won by 4 (OT). Lost $100.
Gregg Popovich tore his team apart for their performance, as well he should. They should have destroyed the Knicks and they didn't. Disappointing.

New Orleans (-7.5) over Milwaukee. I don't really like the Bucks right now. And the Pelicans are playing decently. I'll take that.
Pelicans won by 1. Lost $100.
Third loss in a row, that's what I get for trusting the Pelicans. The teams traded off good quarters and that's not what I needed to win.

Houston (-10.5) over Orlando. Houston should kill, we'll see if they do.
Rockets won by 13. Won $190.
Thank you Houston. This was a game they should've cruised in, and they did. Closing out the game in fourth.

Charlotte (+10.0) over LA Clippers. Gut (and I didn't want to take all favorites).
Clippers won by 7. Won $190.
Faulty reasoning for the win! The Hornets showed up for me and I'll take it.

Results: Bets: $500.  Winnings: $380.  NET: -$120.  Record: 2-3.

March Totals: NET: -$308.  Record: 31-29-1

Another stinker of a night, though I only lost once more than I won. This month certainly isn't over yet (just look at the calendar) but I'd love to build a bit of a cushion.

Big night, 11 games.

The Games 3/18  Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted.

Brooklyn (+11.5) over Cleveland. These two teams don't care for each other (or is it just Brooklyn not liking Lebron...?). This game could go either way. I actually think that Cleveland will roll but I'm just afraid enough of Brooklyn's inconsistency to try to sound like a genius when they keep it close-ish

Philadelphia (+2.0) over Detroit. Am I crazy for picking a Philly? Probably, but here's my reasoning: Detroit has stunk until yesterday, they had to travel, Philly has been competitive. And that's it. Go Sixers!

Minnesota (+11.5) over Toronto. I think Minnesota keeps it close because Wiggins wants to win in Canada and the team wants Wiggins to win in Canada. Toronto is a much better team than the Wolves but that hasn't stopped the Raptors from playing disturbingly bad before.

Portland (-2.5) over Miami. I'm calling the Heat win over Cleveland more of an aberration than a trend. This is a game that Portland needs to win (to be fair, same goes for Miami), and Portland is better.

Boston (+7.0) over Oklahoma City. Everything tells me that OKC should dominate EXCEPT that nobody dominates the Celtics.

Chicago (-1.0) over Indiana. Indiana is weirdly competent and their coach really should be up for Coach of the Year (except that that's not how it works), but Chicago is better and should win.

Dallas (-12.5) over Orlando. Magic played last night and Dallas is on the up and up. I like them to smoke Orlando.

San Antonio (-6.0) over Milwaukee. Odds 1.86. Both teams played last night but Milwaukee didn't get blasted in the media by their coach. Watch for the Spurs to come out with some fire.

LA Clippers (-8.0) over Sacramento. Don't like this one but the Clippers are at least 8 points better than the Kings, even on a back-to-back.

Atlanta (+6.5) over Golden State. This is a standings pick. Golden State is fairly secure and are looking forward to the playoffs, I believe, and are missing Klay Thompson. Atlanta needs to keep winning.

Washington (+3.5) over Utah. I'm still holding to the "Utah is not that good" opinion, though my grip is getting weaker and weaker.

This is an excellent chance to make up some ground.

Right into it. Picks 3/17

There's really no intro stuff today.

The games from yesterday.

Results 3/16

Portland (+2.0) over Washington. I'm betting on the Wizards not sustaining their excellent play.
Wizards won by 8. Lost $100.
Good win for Washington, maybe they're turning it around. One can hope.

Toronto (+5.0) over Indiana. Look, the Raptors have not played well. It's still surprising that Indiana is favored (by FIVE). Clearly there's some injury or something that I don't know about. It's my policy to bet not knowing the injury news, except if I already knew (not much of a policy, more like I'm lazy)
Raptors won by 19. Won $190.
The Raptors were in control (if not dominant) for most of the game. Good solid win for them (and for me)

Philadelphia (+9.0) over Boston. Odds: 1.86. Boston is always a good bet right now, but so is Philly. I think 9 points is a lot.
Celtics won by 19. Lost $100.
Boston was up by 20 after one quarter and they just played it even the rest of the way. I thought 9 was a lot for a spread (and it is for a game like this) but Boston continues their hot streak.

Brooklyn (-2.5) over Minnesota. This could be a game that Minnesota shows up for (KG revenge game?), but they're in full tank mode, it seems. Brooklyn could also dominate(Thad Young revenge game?). I'm going to guess that it will not be an entertaining one.
Nets won by 16. Won $190.
The Wolves are tanking (without trying to be obvious about it) and they only played with 8 active yesterday.

Cleveland (-3.5) over Miami. It'll be a fun game in Miami, Lebron's return and all. I just think Cleveland is better, and Lebron might go off.
Miami won by 14. Lost $100.
Surprising win by the Heat. They took it to the Cavs from the start

Denver (+9.0) over Memphis. I'm going to pay for picking the Nuggets. I don't like the spread.
Grizzlies won by 11. Lost $100.
Close pick. Denver only managed 18 in the first quarter so they started off rough.

Dallas (-4.5) over Oklahoma City. Dunno about this one. I hope that Dallas is building momentum for the playoffs.
Mavericks won by 4. Lost $100.
Grr. I think it was closer than it should have been, considering Durant and Ibaka were out. A win's a win and all, but Dallas should have been better.

Charlotte (+4.5) over Utah. Could go either way but I'll take the more talent.
Jazz won by 28. Lost $100.
Man, this game looks like it was ugly. Charlotte's point totals by quarter: 16, 14, 16, 20. Ugh. And Utah scored only 9 in the fourth.

Atlanta (-5.0) over Sacramento. Five points is not a lot for this offense against the league's worst defense since the All-Star break (or close to it anyway)
Hawks won by 7. Won $190.
Closer than I expected. Again, a win's a win but I expected Atlanta to win by more.

LA Lakers (+18.0) over Golden State. 18 points is so much!!! Normally I'd take Golden State anyway, but I don't know how much they're going to be in cruise control from here on out.
Warriors won by 3. Won $190.
It was close all game. And it seemed like Golden State dressed everyone (though Klay Thompson is now out for a while) so good for LA, I suppose.

Results: Bets: $1000.  Winnings: $760.  NET: -$240.  Record: 4-6

March totals:  NET: -$188.  Record: 29-26-1

Well, it was fun while it lasted. At least I'm not as far in the hole.

5 games tonight.

The Games 3/17  Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted.

Memphis (-5.0) over Detroit. Detroit is kind of a train-wreck right now.

San Antonio (-14.5) over New York.  New York stinks and the Spurs don't. I think the Spurs are putting it together.

New Orleans (-7.5) over Milwaukee. I don't really like the Bucks right now. And the Pelicans are playing decently. I'll take that.

Houston (-10.5) over Orlando. Houston should kill, we'll see if they do.

Charlotte (+10.0) over LA Clippers. Gut (and I didn't want to take all favorites).

March Madness technically starts tonight. Don't forget about the NBA though.

March Madness. Picks 3/16

I filled out my March Madness bracket today. This is not particularly interesting seeing as how March Madness starts this week. I love March Madness. It's very fun and extremely exciting. I realized, however, that filling out brackets, while I enjoy the competition, is not what I enjoy about March Madness. There is one thing that March Madness has that no other sports spectacle has. The Madness that gives it its name.

The upsets.

And I'm not really talking about the 9 seed beating the 8 seed by 12. I'm talking the improbable 12 seed going to the Final Four. And you know there will be some real close games in there. I love it when the 15 seed beats the 2, even if I had that 2 seed winning the championship. Because it's all about the story. I really don't care who wins the National Championship. I don't think Oregon is going to do it this year (spoilers on my brackets). What I will remember, if anything, are the close games, the buzzer beaters, the upsets. And in college sports (especially basketball), the players are not fantastic. Most of them won't go to the NBA. And belief, coupled with opportunity and "getting hot" goes a long way with kids playing a game. Yes, there is a large talent disparity between the best and worst teams in the tournament. But there are 72 teams, 36 games in the first round (two rounds technically) alone, there is not a huge talent gap in all of them. And for others, belief, opportunity, and "getting hot" will make up the difference.


Results 3/13

Chicago (+1.0) over Charlotte. This Bulls team is scrappy and Charlotte is a team that can made to play poorly.
Hornets won by 10. Lost $100.
Good win for Charlotte. We'll have to see how the last few weeks of the season go.

Philadelphia (+4.0) over Sacramento. I think a lot of this pick has to do with underestimation of opponent. It's a real thing and I could see Sacramento taking Philly lightly and being surprised.
76ers won by 7. Won $190.
Philly is scrappy and a decent bet many days. They don't get blown out and the Kings have played fairly poorly in recent weeks.

Toronto (-5.0) over Miami. This game will be decided by the big guys in the middle. Whiteside vs Jonas (not spelling his last name) will determine if a team will have second chances or not. I don't think Jonas is a great rebounder, but Whiteside is. The rest of Miami is weaker than Toronto, but if you give them two (or three) chances to make a shot, the talent gap can be bridged.
Raptors won by 10. Won $190.
Toronto needed this win. Miami is weak-ish right now, but they are still a team that needs to be taken seriously. Good win.

Boston (-5.5) over Orlando. Boston is just a good pick right now.
Celtics won by 7. Won $190.
The Celtics continue to play well. There's no shame to losing by 7 to them, and Orlando's future is bright. The Magic just have to keep on keeping on.

Oklahoma City (-10.0) over Minnesota. I honestly can't tell if the Wolves are tanking or not, it certainly seems like it sometimes but other times.... It seems as though they go for it for three quarters and then Flip decides whether they can win or not. If yes, stay the course. If not, the best players suddenly get pulled because of soreness or something. A fine strategy at this stage, not a good one if the team actually wants to win.
Thunder won by 14. Won $190.
The Wolves continue to lose, which is good...? The Thunder rested a few guys and still won by 14.

LA Clippers (+2.5) over Dallas. Odds: 1.95. Mere days after getting called out by Amare, will Dallas respond? The Clippers are pretty good, they should win.
Mavericks won by 30. Lost $100.
Wow blowout. I guess the team responded. The Mavericks have been playing poorly and it could just take a win like this to turn them around.

Golden State (-6.5) over Denver. Interesting that the spread is so low. Granted, it's in Denver (so, elevation) and Denver has been playing very well while the Warriors have been meh (for them), but the spread would have been 12 points not that long ago.
Nuggets won by 11. Lost $100.
Before you freak out. The Warriors rested 4 of their top players (Curry, Thompson, Iguodala, and Bogut) and another (Speights) was suspended one game. That explains why the spread was so low.

Atlanta (-6.0) over Phoenix. Another case of a really good team playing a merely good team on the road with an enticing line. I'm taking Atlanta but I don't know how I feel about my chances.
Hawks won by 9. Won $190.
Good win for the Hawks against a decent team on the road (a West team no less). Not sure how much to take away from this.

Portland (-8.5) over Detroit. Detroit is playing depressingly poor right now. It's unfortunate that I'm going to probably have to type Trail Blazers (Trailblazers?) again.
Trailblazers won by 19. Won $190.
The Pistons stink. I don't know if it's that simple but it seems to be.

Totals: Bets: $900.  Winnings: $1140.  NET: +$240  Record: 6-3.

March Totals: NET: +$52.   Record: 25-20-1

In the positives. Feels so good. I hope none of you are betting along.

The first night in a bit that I've played from a positive standing. 10 games today big night. Likely means the rationale will be cut short.

The Games 3/16  Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted

Portland (+2.0) over Washington. I'm betting on the Wizards not sustaining their excellent play.

Toronto (+5.0) over Indiana. Look, the Raptors have not played well. It's still surprising that Indiana is favored (by FIVE). Clearly there's some injury or something that I don't know about. It's my policy to bet not knowing the injury news, except if I already knew (not much of a policy, more like I'm lazy)

Philadelphia (+9.0) over Boston. Odds: 1.86. Boston is always a good bet right now, but so is Philly. I think 9 points is a lot.

Brooklyn (-2.5) over Minnesota. This could be a game that Minnesota shows up for (KG revenge game?), but they're in full tank mode, it seems. Brooklyn could also dominate(Thad Young revenge game?). I'm going to guess that it will not be an entertaining one.

Cleveland (-3.5) over Miami. It'll be a fun game in Miami, Lebron's return and all. I just think Cleveland is better, and Lebron might go off.

Denver (+9.0) over Memphis. I'm going to pay for picking the Nuggets. I don't like the spread.

Dallas (-4.5) over Oklahoma City. Dunno about this one. I hope that Dallas is building momentum for the playoffs.

Charlotte (+4.5) over Utah. Could go either way but I'll take the more talent.

Atlanta (-5.0) over Sacramento. Five points is not a lot for this offense against the league's worst defense since the All-Star break (or close to it anyway)

LA Lakers (+18.0) over Golden State. 18 points is so much!!! Normally I'd take Golden State anyway, but I don't know how much they're going to be in cruise control from here on out.

Lots of underdogs today (6/10). Which will make it easy if they win. I'd enjoy watching Cleveland/Miami and Dallas/OKC. Brooklyn/Minny could be ugly and (if both teams play typically) Atlanta/Sacramento could be hilarious. Could be.

Fill out March Madness brackets.

Money. Picks 3/13

Missed yesterday due to unfortunate timing of activities yesterday. I won't let that happen today, I guarantee it.

Disclaimer: I have never been a professional athlete nor have I ever had the opportunity to earn millions of dollars playing a game.

NFL free agency opened recently and a lot of the Football talk has been about money. Player salaries are interesting to me because they so often jump into the realm of "silly money". Athletes get paid millions of dollars to play a game. Now, they are all under incredible scrutiny, their bodies take a beating, and they often retire at the age of 30 or so, but I feel like I could live quite comfortably on even the minimum salary in any of these leagues.

For the 2012-2013 seasons, the league salary minimums for the "four major sports" were as follows:
NBA: $490,180
NHL: $525,000
MLB: $490,000
NFL: $405,000
(source: sports.yahoo.com)

Interestingly, the NHL had the highest and NFL had the lowest.
Most salaries are determined by relative play and agents. If somebody got paid more and performed worse than another, the other player will want more money than the first. Additionally, a player will rarely say "boy I did not deserve that, I'd better take less". Players will take pay cuts, but usually out of necessity. In an age where "success" in a sport is often defined by the amount of championships won, I find it interesting that there aren't more athletes taking pay cuts to help the team around them. The players that do are often making so much money that a 20% pay cut still puts them in the top 10% in the league and the still get the added bonus of being praised profusely for their unselfish act. And it may be unselfish, but it's also extremely tactical.

Apart from baseball, the major sports are played with a salary cap, a maximum amount you can spend on players. This is to enhance league parity, giving smaller market teams a better chance at success, and to protect the owners who may want to win so badly they lose a lot of money and have to sell the team a short time later. By taking a pay cut, especially if a high profile (highly paid) player does, the team is allowed to spend more money on other players. More money brings in better players, the team gets better and the odds of a championship win go up. Not to mention that the athlete will be far from broke. The players who take these types of public pay cuts often have so many endorsements that they could make up the difference by signing on for a few more.

I think the pay cut should be made a lot more (especially for my team) and the onset of free agency in NFL just highlights how much money is actually being thrown around.

The games from Wednesday

Results

 Chicago (-6.5) over Philadelphia. Maybe I'm a fool to continue believing in Chicago... We'll find out soon enough.
Bulls won by 9 (OT). Won $190.
Look, it took overtime, and that's super concerning. BUT they dominated overtime so that's good (for me). I'm fine with it. Still a little concerned with them, though they apparently played without Joakim Noah and that makes a difference.

Sacramento (+8.5) over Charlotte. Living on the edge with this one. Sacramento stinks right now and Kemba Walker is back for Charlotte and, as terrible as this may sound, that may be good for the Kings.
Kings won by 7. Won $!90.
I called it! Cousins was a beast and Twitter tells me that the Hornets made a couple of really bad plays near the end. That'll do it.

Brooklyn (+3.0) over Miami. Odds: 1.86. Hassan Whiteside is suspended for this game and Brooklyn has been overachieving for a couple of weeks.
Heat won by 6. Lost $100.
Ya know, 104-98 looks like a lot more than six points to me, must be a triple-digit vs double-digit thing. You can confirm that 104 minus 98 is six by punching it into your calculator. Or just do it in your head if you are so inclined.

Memphis (-5.0) over Boston. Odds: 1.86. Betting against Boston makes me nervous right now.
Celtics won by 3. Lost $100.
I can hear the annoying Boston fan train coming, it's going to be loud.

LA Clippers (+6.5) over Oklahoma City. Over/under 4 technicals total in this game? I'm going under, but barely.
Clippers won by 12. Won $190.
Anyone want to guess the amount of technicals in this game? I won't make you (this media is non-interactive). It was 3! So I called two things last night. The game and the "under, but barely" 4 techs. I should get bonus points.

Orlando (+7.5) over Milwaukee. Odds: 1.86. I'm picking so many 1.86 bets. I don't trust Milwaukee right now.
Bucks won by 6. Won $186.
Good win by a Bucks team who desperately needs to get rolling again. But it wasn't so good that I paid for it. Thanks guys.

Atlanta (-7.0) over Denver. I'd love to pick Denver, I would. But Atlanta....
Nuggets won by 13 (o_0). Lost $100.
Should've picked the Nuggets, who are all of a sudden good? Brian Shaw must have really been holding them back (no sarcasm, that must have been true)

Phoenix (-4.5) over Minnesota. Pick against the Wolves. Pick against the Wolves. 5 point win is not unreasonable.
Suns won by 9. Won $190.
Not a whole lot to say. Pekovic was held out late due to ankle soreness (which is annoyingly predictable) and I picked against them (and I won) and they lost (which is good) (I suppose)(DRAFT PICK).

Golden State (-14.0) over Detroit. 14 points is a lot. Golden State tends to win by a lot.
Warriors won by 7. Lost $100.
The Warriors were up by 10 with 4 minutes to go and I was actually feeling confident. The Warriors picked a good night to maybe have an "off" night. Seven is still a comfortable win.

Portland (-2.0) over Houston. I have a hard time remembering any game Portland plays. It's weird.
Trail Blazers won by 5. Won $190.
Portland is pretty good (that Aldridge guy), it'll be interesting to see how their playoffs go.

Results: Bets: $1000.  Winnings: $1136.  NET: +$136.  Record: 6-4

March Totals: NET: -$188.  Record: 19-17-1

Crawling back to positives. It's good times.

It's Friday. 9 games today.

The Games 3/12   Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted.

Chicago (+1.0) over Charlotte. This Bulls team is scrappy and Charlotte is a team that can made to play poorly.

Philadelphia (+4.0) over Sacramento. I think a lot of this pick has to do with underestimation of opponent. It's a real thing and I could see Sacramento taking Philly lightly and being surprised.

Toronto (-5.0) over Miami. This game will be decided by the big guys in the middle. Whiteside vs Jonas (not spelling his last name) will determine if a team will have second chances or not. I don't think Jonas is a great rebounder, but Whiteside is. The rest of Miami is weaker than Toronto, but if you give them two (or three) chances to make a shot, the talent gap can be bridged.

Boston (-5.5) over Orlando. Boston is just a good pick right now.

Oklahoma City (-10.0) over Minnesota. I honestly can't tell if the Wolves are tanking or not, it certainly seems like it sometimes but other times.... It seems as though they go for it for three quarters and then Flip decides whether they can win or not. If yes, stay the course. If not, the best players suddenly get pulled because of soreness or something. A fine strategy at this stage, not a good one if the team actually wants to win

LA Clippers (+2.5) over Dallas. Odds: 1.95. Mere days after getting called out by Amare, will Dallas respond? The Clippers are pretty good, they should win.

Golden State (-6.5) over Denver. Interesting that the spread is so low. Granted, it's in Denver (so, elevation) and Denver has been playing very well while the Warriors have been meh (for them), but the spread would have been 12 points not that long ago

Atlanta (-6.0) over Phoenix. Another case of a really good team playing a merely good team on the road with an enticing line. I'm taking Atlanta but I don't know how I feel about my chances.

Portland (-8.5) over Detroit. Detroit is playing depressingly poor right now. It's unfortunate that I'm going to probably have to type Trail Blazers (Trailblazers?) again.


Woot woot! I'm on a hot streak (is two in a row a streak? Sure!)

An Explanation. Picks 3/11

An explanation and apology:
First: I apologize for not posting yesterday (this is the apology part and now it's over)
Second: Here's the thing. I started doing this picks blog to give me something to do when I was unemployed with the expectation that I would soon be not-unemployed (make sense?). The blog was never a "priority" but it was (and is) somewhat fun and it's cool to put things out there for others to read. However, I have recently altered my job hunting approach and it has made the blog writing activity more of chore. The reason for this is not fully known, though I strongly suspect it has to do with the hours I already spend on the computer looking for jobs and writing cover letters and submitting applications. You may have noticed that my reasons for picks have been getting shorter and shorter (same reason why pics/gifs are rarer, it's hard to find relevant ones). This helps keep the blog writing fun and less chore-like. Though I would not be surprised if I missed a few more days here and there before the season is over.

I'm in a slump. Can I break free?

Results 3/9

Charlotte (-1.5) over Washington. This is, tragically, an anti-Washington pick. And Charlotte is good as well.
Wizards won by 26. Lost $100.
Huh, turnaround for the Wizards? Funnest random stat that just randomly popped up: Charlotte shot 18.2% from 3-point. They lost. BUT the winning team (Washington, if you're paying attention) shot 14.3% from 3. They sucked from 3...

Boston (+3.0) over Miami. This is a gut pick. Miami should win by a decent amount.
Celtics won by 10. Won $190.
Miami should have won by a decent amount. They didn't. Now I'm left wondering how long it'll take before Celtics fans become insufferable again.

Atlanta (-11.0) over Sacramento. Atlanta is good, Sacramento is...ehh. I'll take the good team.
Hawks won by 25. Won $190.
Fun fact: the teams combined for 77 points in the second quarter. That was probably a fun quarter to watch.

Memphis (-5.5) over Chicago. Two teams that are incapable of blowing the other out. I think a six point win for Memphis is reasonable.
Grizzlies won by 10. Won $190.
Memphis scored 101 points, that seems high for a Bulls team to give up... and Memphis to score.

Milwaukee (-1.5) over New Orleans. Both teams have been struggling recently but I think the Bucks are slightly better (and at home).
Pelicans won by 11. Lost $100.
I can't get a handle on the Pelicans. They're my new stay-away team.

New York (+9.0) over Denver. Odds: 1.95. This is bizarre to me. Yes New York stinks (but so does Denver [though not as much since firing their coach]). But nine points is a lot AND better odds? I'm tempted.
Nuggets won by 28. Lost $100.
HA joke's on me. I gave New York credit... sigh.

Golden State (-5.0) over Phoenix. I think this is mostly due Golden State playing yesterday, traveling, and facing a fast paced team. I think the Warriors are that good.
Warriors won by 18. Won $190.
The Warriors are usually a pretty good bet against the spread. Opposite of New Orleans.

LA Clippers (-7.5) over Minnesota. Odds: 1.95. I think that the Clippers will want revenge for having such a close game the last time these two teams played and the refs will give the home team (the whiny team) more benefit of the doubt. It should be even more unwatchable than Clippers games usually are.
Clippers won by 13. Won $195.
The Clippers only got two technical fouls so I'm really proud of them.

Results: Bets:  $800.   Winnings: $955.   NET: +$155.  Record: 5-3.

March Total:  NET: -$324   Record: 13-13-1.

I had a positive day! It's a comeback!! Now I'm only $324 in the hole...

10 games tonight. I hope I can keep it going.

The Games 3/11  Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted.

 Chicago (-6.5) over Philadelphia. Maybe I'm a fool to continue believing in Chicago... We'll find out soon enough.

Sacramento (+8.5) over Charlotte. Living on the edge with this one. Sacramento stinks right now and Kemba Walker is back for Charlotte and, as terrible as this may sound, that may be good for the Kings.

Brooklyn (+3.0) over Miami. Odds: 1.86. Hassan Whiteside is suspended for this game and Brooklyn has been overachieving for a couple of weeks.

Memphis (-5.0) over Boston. Odds: 1.86. Betting against Boston makes me nervous right now.

LA Clippers (+6.5) over Oklahoma City. Over/under 4 technicals total in this game? I'm going under, but barely.

Orlando (+7.5) over Milwaukee. Odds: 1.86. I'm picking so many 1.86 bets. I don't trust Milwaukee right now.

Atlanta (-7.0) over Denver. I'd love to pick Denver, I would. But Atlanta....

Phoenix (-4.5) over Minnesota. Pick against the Wolves. Pick against the Wolves. 5 point win is not unreasonable.

Golden State (-14.0) over Detroit. 14 points is a lot. Golden State tends to win by a lot.

Portland (-2.0) over Houston. I have a hard time remembering any game Portland plays. It's weird.

I hope it's a solid day. I need to make a comeback.

Probabilities. Picks 3/9

Probability is an interesting mathematical concept. The chances of a real life event happening based on past events both makes sense and doesn't. In fact, probability as a purely theoretical idea generally assumes random occurrence of events, something that life is unlikely to provide. of The Calgary Flames are trying to make the playoffs. I saw on Twitter (and continue to see because it remains relevant) that if the Flames reach 95 points on the season, they have an 88% chance to make the playoffs, if they reach 94 points, they have a 70% chance to make the playoffs (or something like that, specific numbers may be different). So what does this actually mean? It means that, with the standings the way they were, reaching 95 points gets them into the playoffs 88 times out of 100. But does it really?

Probability is beautiful because there are no absolutes. It's also infuriating for the same reasons. If the Flames reach 95 points and miss the playoffs, it would be reasonable to argue that they got unlucky, that they hit the 12% that resulted in "no playoffs". Or you could look at it and say "there was no chance that they were going to make the playoffs with 95 points". Which is more correct? I don't really know, but consider this. As the Flames approach 95 points, the probability of them making the playoffs with that total will fluctuate due to the changing standings. Does that make the 88% figure incorrect? Not necessarily, just outdated. But I think the most telling probability of the Flames chances of making the playoffs given they have 95 points is, come the end of the regular season, if the Flames actually have 95 points. If they do, the playoff probability will either be 100% or 0%, and I think that explains the situation of things far more clearly than 88% at the beginning of March.

Results 3/6

Atlanta (+1.5) over Cleveland.  I don't know, I feel like Atlantmea  should get up for these types of games.
Hawks won by 9. Won $190.
The Hawks are looking like they might be serious contenders in the East, I don't think anyone really saw that coming at the start of the season. Second year coach and a team of non-superstars (but really good players) doesn't usually take the league by storm.

Boston (+7.0) over New Orleans. I like Boston's ability to keep it close.
Celtics won by 6. Won $190.
I was genuinely surprised when I looked today and New Orleans was favored by 7 on Friday. Obviously hindsight is 20/20 but I feel like this should've been a Pelicans-by-3 game. Would've won it anyway.

Houston (-7.5) over Detroit. I feel like the game can easily get to eight points with this Rockets team. They may not blow them out but free throws at the end push it over.
Rockets won by 10. Won $190.
I think the spread was pretty good on this one.

Memphis (-11.5) over LA Lakers. This is an example of a game where I think "12 points isn't that much. Teams win by 12 all the time".
Grizzlies won by 7. Lost $100.
I guess Memphis doesn't tend to blow teams out. Hindsight and all...

Brooklyn (-2.5) over Phoenix. Odds 1.95. I don't like this pick but I'll like it a lot more when Brooklyn wins (HA!)
Suns won by 8 (OT). Lost $100.
Apparently the Suns went on a crazy run to finish the game (15-1 or something) and then continued it into overtime. I was feeling pretty good about this pick until halfway through the 4th.

San Antonio (-11.0) over Denver. The Nuggets just beat my Wolves on the day I didn't pick games. For the record, I probably would have picked them, just seemed like a game the Wolves would lose. I think San Antonio begins preparing for the postseason.
Spurs won by 9. Lost $100.
Typical Spurs. Just didn't put the boot down.

Dallas (+11.5) over Golden State. Another game where the score can easily get out of hand late, I think Dallas will keep it closer than most think.
Warriors won by 15. Lost $100.
Good win by Golden State, showing Dallas who's boss.

Totals: Bets: $700. Winnings: $570. NET: -$130.  Record: 3-4

March Total: NET: -$479.  Record: 8-10-1.

I started so promising. And then it all fell apart. The only game I was too far off from was the Nets-Suns game, and that took a huge collapse and overtime.

Eight games today.

The Games 3/9    Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted.

Charlotte (-1.5) over Washington. This is, tragically, an anti-Washington pick. And Charlotte is good as well.

Boston (+3.0) over Miami. This is a gut pick. Miami should win by a decent amount.

Atlanta (-11.0) over Sacramento. Atlanta is good, Sacramento is...ehh. I'll take the good team.

Memphis (-5.5) over Chicago. Two teams that are incapable of blowing the other out. I think a six point win for Memphis is reasonable.

Milwaukee (-1.5) over New Orleans. Both teams have been struggling recently but I think the Bucks are slightly better (and at home).

New York (+9.0) over Denver. Odds: 1.95. This is bizarre to me. Yes New York stinks (but so does Denver [though not as much since firing their coach]). But nine points is a lot AND better odds? I'm tempted.

Golden State (-5.0) over Phoenix. I think this is mostly due Golden State playing yesterday, traveling, and facing a fast paced team. I think the Warriors are that good.

LA Clippers (-7.5) over Minnesota. Odds: 1.95. I think that the Clippers will want revenge for having such a close game the last time these two teams played and the refs will give the home team (the whiny team) more benefit of the doubt. It should be even more unwatchable than Clippers games usually are.

I need a positive day, I feel like it's been months (or weeks) (days...?)

Usefulness and Bonus Commentary (skill). Picks 3/6

Usefulness is a relative measure. Like success, it's different for different people.Someone who is desperately trying (and failing) to find work would feel less useful than the person who is just sitting at home doing nothing and is quite content with it. Both are contributing about the same to the economy and society as a whole, but their self measured usefulness is likely different. This is often correlated to self-esteem. The person who is content in his/her life or situation is more likely to feel more useful than a person who is discontent. Uselessness is not only brought upon when a person has absolutely nothing to contribute, it also occurs when the contribution is beneath expectation. This is what most often brings about conversations where one party attempts to cheer the other up by listing all the things they contribute. It is a welcome tactic but it rarely lifts the person fully. It's not that those contributions are meaningless, there just may not be enough of them to satisfy the contributor.

Anyway, that's been on my mind, recently.


Results 3/5
Chicago (-1.0) over Oklahoma City. Odds: 1.95. Oklahoma City went to overtime yesterday against Philadelphia. Chicago is obviously hurting, as mentioned previously, but I'll take them at home against a team that played in overtime and traveled.
Bulls won by 3. Won $195.
Despite Westbrook's 43 points, the Thunder fall short against an undermanned Bulls squad. I'm worried about OKC. I know that they're missing Durant (who was MVP last season, so that's big) but even with him they were underachieving (which is to say they were very good instead of OMG great)

Dallas (+3.0) over Portland. Dallas should beat Portland and I guess this is just a pick the team that I think is better. We'll see if that pans out.
Trail Blazers won by 19. Lost $100.
So I missed. The most unfortunate thing is that I have to type Trail Blazers. Seriously, I can never remember if its Trail Blazers or Trailblazers. When I lived near Portland, I always thought it was Trailblazers (one word) but now I'm usually seeing Trail Blazers (two words). Which is correct? How do I know? One word looks wrong, two words also kind of looks wrong. AAAAaaaahhhh.

Results: Bets: $200.  Winnings: $195.  NET: -$5.  Record: 1-1

March Totals:  NET:  -$349.   Record: 5-6-1

So that wasn't so bad. It wasn't good, that's for sure, but it wasn't bad, I guess. Still haven't had a positive day in a while.

So, funny story. I didn't get to writing the blog until after the first slate of games had started. Which means that I went to bet365.com and looked at their spreads and there are a bunch missing. Kinda felt like the Alice In Wonderland White Rabbit.

As a result (and I'm kinda lazy) (and I don't want to cheat) I'm only picking the games that had not started at that point, which means I am not picking 5 games out of the 12 scheduled.

7 games up for grabs.

The Games 3/6  Odds are 1.90

Atlanta (+1.5) over Cleveland.  I don't know, I feel like Atlanta  should get up for these types of games.

Boston (+7.0) over New Orleans. I like Boston's ability to keep it close.

Houston (-7.5) over Detroit. I feel like the game can easily get to eight points with this Rockets team. They may not blow them out but free throws at the end push it over.

Memphis (-11.5) over LA Lakers. This is an example of a game where I think "12 points isn't that much. Teams win by 12 all the time".

Brooklyn (-2.5) over Phoenix. Odds 1.95. I don't like this pick but I'll like it a lot more when Brooklyn wins (HA!)

San Antonio (-11.0) over Denver. The Nuggets just beat my Wolves on the day I didn't pick games. For the record, I probably would have picked them, just seemed like a game the Wolves would lose. I think San Antonio begins preparing for the postseason.

Dallas (+11.5) over Golden State. Another game where the score can easily get out of hand late, I think Dallas will keep it closer than most think


BONUS COMMENTARY:
Here's something I think we all can agree on. Professional athletes are good at their sport. Now, I do it too, but I think we all need to remember that [enter player name here] does not "suck" at [sport], he (she) is simply not as good as the other professional athletes also playing [sport]. He (She) could kick the tar out of any of us who challenged them in [sport]. Whether or not we think they are worth [salary number] per year, someone at some point thought that they were. And none of us will ever approach getting paid [salary number] per year playing [sport].
Perspective is a terrible thing

Real Talk. Picks 3/5

 I forgot to do picks yesterday, it was kind of a big day with some not so great news. I'm back today though. And ready to roll.

I apologize that my posts haven't had many pictures and maybe have not been that interesting as a result. I find it difficult to find pictures/gifs that are both fun and relevant.

The alternatives are to find pictures/gifs that are either relevant but not necessarily fun or find pictures/gifs that are fun but not necessarily relevant. I tend to skew towards the latter than the former because I'm always down to be entertained.

Anyway, here are the games from Tuesday.

Results 3/4 

Cleveland (-10.5) over Boston. I hope that Lebron and Kyrie play tonight. That's the kicker for this. Boston has been good recently.
Cavaliers won by 31. Won $190.
Good win for the Cavs (or bad loss considering the margin of victory). Boston was just outclassed from the get go, they were down by 44 after 3 quarters.

LA Lakers (+8.5) over Charlotte. I don't really trust Charlotte. I don't know if I've ever picked the Lakers this year. Should be interesting.
Hornets won by 1. Won $190.
This kind of played out the way I was expecting. The Hornets aren't that good to be comfortable picking them to win by double digits consistently. The Lakers may be that bad but still...

New York (+4.0) over Sacramento. Sacramento has been weirdly bad and they have to travel. I'll grab the Knicks...?
Kings won by 38. Lost $100.
This was bad. I clearly gave the Knicks too much credit. I don't think anyone could've seen this coming.

Houston (+8.5) over Atlanta. I usually take Atlanta but they haven't been winning by as much as I would expect recently (how's that for a compliment?). And they shouldn't blow out Houston.
Hawks won by 8. Won $190.
Woo baby that one was close. Good half a point win for me (because I had a lot to do with it). Good win for the Hawks too against a pretty good team.

Memphis (-8.5) over Utah. Utah has been good, Memphis is better.
Jazz won by 11. Lost $100
Hmm, bad loss for the Grizzlies.

Washington (-1.0) over Chicago. Both teams have been worse than expected. Washington is much more equipped to turn it around (Bulls have a lot of injuries).
Bulls won by 5. Lost $100.
I don't think it was crazy for me to pick the Wizards despite the fact that they've been terrible. Sure paid for it though.

Milwaukee (-5.5) over Denver. Denver stinks. Hopefully the Bucks play better.
Nuggets won by 11. Lost $100.
Wow. I did not expect this. Denver doesn't even have a coach right now. BAD loss for Milwaukee who's trying to hold a playoff position.

Totals: Bets: $700.  Winnings: $570.  NET: -$130.  Record: 3-4

March Totals: NET: -$344.  Record: 4-5-1.

Crap. After hitting the first 3 out of 4, I miss the last three. So annoying. I hope none of you are betting along.

TNT double header tonight. That means two games. Time to move in a positive direction.

The Games 3/4  Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted.

Chicago (-1.0) over Oklahoma City. Odds: 1.95. Oklahoma City went to overtime yesterday against Philadelphia. Chicago is obviously hurting, as mentioned previously, but I'll take them at home against a team that played in overtime and traveled.

Dallas (+3.0) over Portland. Dallas should beat Portland and I guess this is just a pick the team that I think is better. We'll see if that pans out.

$185 gain possible. C'mon, don't fail me now.
I'm starting to wonder how I did so well in January.

What to do When Your Team Isn't Good Enough. Picks 3/3

If you're like me, your team has been out of the playoffs since two weeks into the season. So now it's time to start considering which teams to cheer for in the playoffs. How do you decide?

1) Fun: Which team is the most fun? This is probably the most reasonable reason to pick a team. The team that you most enjoy watching should be a team that you hope continue through the tournament.

2) Story: Some of the teams in the tournament have great stories. Usually it's due to external factors rather than on court play. For example, if the coach's wife got really sick or they had to overcome a serious injury and came together as a team.

3) Likeability: Mostly due to player behavior on and off the court. A specific example that'll come up in my results section is the LA Clippers. They complain too much and get too many technical fouls. I don't find that attractive in a team and I won't cheer for them.

4)Underdog/Overdog(?): Cheering for an overachieving team is fun, and if you pick them from the start you can be "that guy" who cheered for them before it was cool. On the other hand, cheering for the favorite is also fun because you're more likely to taste success.

When it comes down to cheering for a team that is not your usual team, most bets are off. Just have fun with it.

The pick results for March 2nd.

Results 3/2

Toronto (-9.0) over Philadelphia. Odds: 1.86. Toronto should dominate. If they don't, that's cause for concern.
Raptors won by 11. Won $186.
Good for the Raptors for putting the 76ers in their place, I guess. They should have won by more, considering the rosters, but the 76ers are surprisingly competent.

Golden State (-6.0) over Brooklyn. Will I pay for picking against Brooklyn? Who knows. I like Golden State, though.
Nets won by 2. Lost $100.
Huh. Go Nets I suppose. Maybe they'll be competitive for the next couple years, this stretch certainly indicates that they could be in good shape (except for the lack of cap space and draft picks)

Phoenix (+1.5) over Miami.  Goran Dragic revenge game? The Suns' highs are higher than Miami and so I'll go with that.
Miami won by 17. Lost $100.
Apparently, this game was crazy chippy. Well, good Miami showed up. And Dragic revenge game.

LA Clippers (-5.0) over Minnesota. Odds: 1.86. I have no love for the Clippers so I'd love it if the Wolves could be them. I'm not holding my breath though.
Clippers won by 5 [Push]. Won $100.
This was an ugly game. The Clippers are kind of painful for me to watch. I have a poor opinion of them as a team, they actually seem entitled. They had 5 technical fouls. 5. That is a sign of a very complainy team.

New Orleans (+7.5) over Dallas. Odds: 1.95. This is a spread pick. I think Dallas actually wins. New Orleans has been weirdly effective recently though.
Mavericks won by 9. Lost $100.
This was close. But unfortunately, the Pelicans couldn't make it just a bit closer.

Results: Bets: $500.  Winnings: $286.  NET: -$214.   Record: 1-3-1.

March Totals: NET: -$214.  Record 1-3-1.

Bummer. But it's a long month. It'll be nice to get some success.

7 games tonight. Time for a turnaround.

The Games 3/3  Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted.

Cleveland (-10.5) over Boston. I hope that Lebron and Kyrie play tonight. That's the kicker for this. Boston has been good recently.

LA Lakers (+8.5) over Charlotte. I don't really trust Charlotte. I don't know if I've ever picked the Lakers this year. Should be interesting.

New York (+4.0) over Sacramento. Sacramento has been weirdly bad and they have to travel. I'll grab the Knicks...?

Houston (+8.5) over Atlanta. I usually take Atlanta but they haven't been winning by as much as I would expect recently (how's that for a compliment?). And they shouldn't blow out Houston.

Memphis (-8.5) over Utah. Utah has been good, Memphis is better.

Washington (-1.0) over Chicago. Both teams have been worse than expected. Washington is much more equipped to turn it around (Bulls have a lot of injuries).

Milwaukee (-5.5) over Denver. Denver stinks. Hopefully the Bucks play better.

Stay tuned for results.

Analytics and the Start of a New Month. Picks 3/2

Analytics. It is quite the buzzword in professional sports these days. As far as I know, the process rose to prominence in baseball and has now bled over into other professional sports. I think the sport of the four major ones in North America that least uses this nebulous concept of "analytics" is football. The NBA makes extensive use of a few measures. Hockey is using them more frequently and baseball is baseball.

I love advanced statistics. I find them very interesting and enjoy the possibilities they bring to predicting player behavior. But they cannot tell you everything. Statistics, advanced or not, cannot tell the whole story. The hope is that you have enough of a story to tell you how the rest will go.

The San Antonio Spurs have been the model NBA franchise for over 15 years and have been lauded for their ability to maximize the abilities of their players. This immediately screams "advanced stats" and "moneyball"

Quote taken from Jeff McDonald's account on Twitter

The quote from Gregg Popovich, coach of the Spurs since 1996, and it shows the balanced approach to analytics. It's a tool, used to justify what you think or to make you check again. It's not the be-all-end-all.

I read flamesnation.ca and I very much enjoy it. The most interesting part of the Flames' season this year is their success relative to their advanced stats. So many articles this year have been devoted to "regression is coming" "the success can't last". The problem with NHL advanced stats is that many of them can be altered by team system. If your team's philosophy is to force shots from the outside and counterattack, your Corsi will suck, you'll get outshot and outchanced like crazy with the hope that your chances are far superior to your opponents'. On the offensive end, a philosophy of avoiding "just put pucks on the net" (which I tend to agree more with) and waiting for a great shot versus a good shot will lower your shot totals (again lowering Corsi). If both tactics are used, you will ideally have a very high save percentage and a really high shooting percentage. Adding together these two numbers together gives you the team's PDO, a historically decent predictor of long term success and the measure most used of the "the good times won't last" or "the bad times won't last". But, as I said, the state can be gamed a bit by system. So I wouldn't put all my eggs in the analytics basket, as fascinating as it is.

The games from Friday, the last one of February.

Results 2/27 

Cleveland (-3.5) over Indiana. I actually thought about this one a bit. It could be a trap, and I don't think Lebron will score 42 again, but that doesn't make me nervous enough to bet against them.
Pacers won by 7. Lost $100.
I didn't expect Lebron to take the night off. When I saw that, I got worried and it was justified.

Philadelphia (+8.5) over Washington. The Wizards are in a free fall right now. It's really too bad because they started so well. It's a good time for them to play the 76ers, though I don't think they'll win by that much.
76ers won by 8. Won $190.
Wow, the Wizards are terrible right now. Good on the 76ers I guess.

Charlotte (+2.0) over Boston. I always feel like I pick against the Celtics. I just think that Charlotte is aware of their playoff position and will have an extra push which will help them beat a team that they're better than.
Celtics won by 8. Lost $100.
Hmm, I should give Boston more credit. To be fair, their coach is fantastic. I just don't think they have the talent. I suppose I'm wrong.

Golden State (-1.5) over Toronto. This is a tricky one for me because Toronto is so inconsistent, but I still think Golden State is that good.
Warriors won by 24. Won $190.
To put this in perspective, the Raptors won the fourth quarter by 17 points. Math fans (and those want to know) will note that that means that the Warriors were winning by 41 after three quarters. Not a good sign.

Detroit (-13.5) over New York. I'm tired of giving New York credit. 13.5 points is a ton but I'm not taking them out of principle.
Knicks won by 6 (2OT). Lost $100.
The one time I don't get scared by the spread... the Knicks, man. The Knicks.

Orlando (+11.0) over Atlanta. Orlando has kept games close in recent weeks and I foresee them doing that again. I don't think they win.
Hawks won by 7. Won $190.
The Hawks continue to win, though by less than they used to.

Houston (-7.0) over Brooklyn. Another team I pick against (and pay for) all the time. I like Houston in general, and I like them in this game (despite their bad local announcers).
Rockets won by 4. Lost $100.
Closer than I thought, as all the games with the Nets are with me, apparently.

LA Clippers (+5.0) over Memphis. The second meeting in a week between these two teams. I think the Clippers are looking for revenge.
Clippers won by 18. Won $190.
It's true that beating a team twice in a week is difficult (same reason why playoffs are so tricky). This game was more evidence of that.

Miami (-1.5) over New Orleans. I like Miami, even without Bosh. Both teams are missing their star big men (Bosh and Davis) and I like the rest of Miami's team more than New Orleans.
Pelicans won by 2. Lost $100.
The Pelicans are better than I thought, it seems. The Heat are still adjusting to life without Bosh and with Dragic. Pelicans are adjusting to life without Davis, but it seems like they're adjusting better. Or it's just one game and we can't derive anything from it.

Minnesota (+4.5) over Chicago. Yesterday, this spread was 6.5. I  think the Wolves have residual Garnett-fever energy and Chicago is looking pretty "meh" without Rose. Maybe they're starting to rest a bit early in order to maximize playoff energy. I can hope.
Bulls won by 7. Lost $100.
It was close but they ultimately fell short. The Bulls were severely shorthanded and just got worse news (Jimmy Butler is now out). I don't like their chances to maintain but there were able to do decently on effort alone. And that's what you can say about the Bulls, they give effort.

Utah (-4.5) over Denver. Utah may be regressing a bit after their hot stretch but I just think Denver is that bad.
Jazz won by 22. Won $190.
I don't know what to say except that the Nuggets are... not so good.

San Antonio (-8.0) over Sacramento. I'm banking on this being the game the Spurs turn it around. I don't think that's unreasonable.
Spurs won by 11. Won $190.
The Spurs won so that's nice. I like the Spurs. The Kings are struggling. I believe in George Karl but maybe this won't be the year to see that.

Milwaukee (-6.0) over LA Lakers.  I don't care for the Lakers. They've played well recently, though.
Lakers won by 8. Lost $100.
 Dunno how this went down (hint for me: 4th quarter)

Portland (-6.0) over Oklahoma City. I think OKC will be a little tired after their up-and-down dogfight in Phoenix (in overtime no less).
Trail Blazers won by 3. Lost $100.
Good win by the Blazers, unfortunate for the Thunder in the playoff race.

Totals: Bet: $1400.  Winnings: $1140.  NET: -$260  Record: 6-8.

February Totals: NET: -$324  Record: 51-49.

Crappy finish to the month but thems the breaks. Again, I reiterate, it's a good thing it's not real.
Before we go to the next month, let's look at 2015 as a whole.

Due to my monstrous January, my NET for 2015 is +$527. Go me

Five games for the first night of picks in March.

The Games 3/2  Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted.

Toronto (-9.0) over Philadelphia. Odds: 1.86. Toronto should dominate. If they don't, that's cause for concern.

Golden State (-6.0) over Brooklyn. Will I pay for picking against Brooklyn? Who knows. I like Golden State, though.

Phoenix (+1.5) over Miami.  Goran Dragic revenge game? The Suns' highs are higher than Miami and so I'll go with that.

LA Clippers (-5.0) over Minnesota. Odds: 1.86. I have no love for the Clippers so I'd love it if the Wolves could be them. I'm not holding my breath though.

New Orleans (+7.5) over Dallas. Odds: 1.95. This is a spread pick. I think Dallas actually wins. New Orleans has been weirdly effective recently though.

I hope to start off on the right foot this month. Fingers crossed.