Let's talk about luck. Specifically luck in a competition (specifically sports because of course). It seems to me that luck determines everything in competition involving two or more opposing entities. It's luck that potentially says that a defender reacts a certain way to an offensive move. A perfectly placed throw by a quarterback is not intercepted if the defender is more than a foot farther away from the ball than he should be. If the cornerback guesses an out route, and gets beat, that's unlucky. Or lucky if he guesses right. Skill raises the potential for lucky events. I can shut out LeBron James in 1-on-1 if I hit every single halfcourt shot I take (likely the only shot that won't get blocked) and he slips or dribbles off his foot every single time. Horrendously unlikely but still possible. His skill and my skill make that unlikely. Unless I get lucky.
Life is not really a video game, though. I wouldn't write a masters thesis on it.
The basketball regular season is over so this is a recap of my last day of picks. Here we go.
Results 4/14
Toronto (-1.5) over Boston. I continually pick the Raptors and I usually pay for it.
Celtics won by 2. Lost $100.
It makes sense that my last day of picks features a half point loss. Ugh. The Raptors have been a pain in my side for the last two months.
Indiana (-7.0) over Washington. I'm picking the desperate team in this one.
Pacers won by 4. Lost $100.
Pacers needed the win and got it, just not by as much as I needed them to.
LA Clippers (-10.0) over Phoenix. Neither team has anything to play for. I'll take the better one.
Clippers won by 11. Won $190.
I got a one point win to go with my half point loss. Nothing really to say.
Totals: Bets: $300. Winnings: $190. NET: -$110. Record: 1-2
April totals: NET: +$650. Record: 25-16.
It was a good basketball season, not so much for the Wolves but the future is bright. That's what counts, right? (right Oilers fans?).
As far as my picks are concerned, I had two good months and two not so good months, though I believe February was the only one that I lost money in.
My NET for 2015 was $1250. I made over $1000 in four months, not going to become a career gambler or anything. I never use real money on my bets and do not condone it but this was a fun exercise. Maybe I'll do it next season, who knows.
Good season.
Thursday, 16 April 2015
Tuesday, 14 April 2015
Been a While. Picks 4/14
The reason I haven't written a blog in a while is because I got a job. As a result, my time has been more scarce. I have some free time today, so here's some picks. There aren't that many days left in the season. Today will be my last pick blog and then there will likely be a results blog at some point. The regular season is over tomorrow and I won't be picking for the playoffs. It's been a good run.
It's been a while, so expect even less analysis than usual.
Results 4/8
Boston (+1.0) over Detroit. Apparently Detroit is still in the playoff race. Go figure.
Celtics won by 10. Won $190.
Not unexpected.
Chicago (-8.0) over Orlando. Odds: 1.86. Don't like Orlando. Certainly like Chicago more. Do not particularly like this pick.
Magic won by 2. Lost $100.
Go figure.
Toronto (-3.0) over Charlotte. Am I a fool for picking Toronto again? They have to win again at some point?
Raptors won by 18. Won $190.
Woo.
Washington (-8.0) over Philadelphia. I feel like this a rarity these days, me not picking Philly when they're getting more than five points. And against Washington too, whom I love to pick against. I don't know. Guts!
Wizards won by 29. Won $190.
76ers playing to their skill level. Wizards playing to theirs
Atlanta vs Brooklyn. OFF THE BOARD. NO BET. For some reason, Bet365 is not currently accepting bets for this game. Don't know why.
Indiana (-12.5) over New York. Paul George is back from a horrendous broken leg he suffered over the summer. Obviously he's not back to what he was last year but if he can bring the Pacers from about 65% of last year's skill to 75%, that should be more than enough to dominate the Knicks.
Pacers won by 16. Won $190.
Ugh. The Knicks
Cleveland vs Milwaukee. OFF THE BOARD. NO BET. Another one.
Memphis (-5.0) over New Orleans. Memphis is turning (have turned) a corner and are playing better. I think Gasol can mitigate Davis at least somewhat and everyone can take care of business. Kind of depends on which Tyreke Evans shows up.
Grizzlies by 36. Won $190.
Holy cow.
Houston (+6.0) over San Antonio. Classic Pop rest game potential.
Spurs won by 12. Lost $100.
Spurs.
LA Lakers vs Denver. OFF THE BOARD. NO BET
Sacramento vs Utah. OFF THE BOARD. NO BET
Dallas (-9.0) over Phoenix. Phoenix has really nothing to play for, Dallas does.
Mavericks won by 3. Lost $100.
I'm going to assume that Dallas was favored by 9 in this one.
Portland (-16.5) over Minnesota. Back to back? Traveling? Onuaku? Give me Portland.
Trailblazers won by 25. Won $190.
Ugh the Wolves.
Totals: Bets: $900. Winnings: $1140. NET: +$240. Record: 6-3
April Totals: NET: +$760. Record: 24-14.
Good day. Very good day. There aren't enough games today to drop me to the red for the month so that's nice.
The Games 4/14 Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted
Toronto (-1.5) over Boston. I continually pick the Raptors and I usually pay for it.
Indiana (-7.0) over Washington. I'm picking the desperate team in this one.
LA Clippers (-10.0) over Phoenix. Neither team has anything to play for. I'll take the better one.
Go Flames Go.
It's been a while, so expect even less analysis than usual.
Results 4/8
Boston (+1.0) over Detroit. Apparently Detroit is still in the playoff race. Go figure.
Celtics won by 10. Won $190.
Not unexpected.
Chicago (-8.0) over Orlando. Odds: 1.86. Don't like Orlando. Certainly like Chicago more. Do not particularly like this pick.
Magic won by 2. Lost $100.
Go figure.
Toronto (-3.0) over Charlotte. Am I a fool for picking Toronto again? They have to win again at some point?
Raptors won by 18. Won $190.
Woo.
Washington (-8.0) over Philadelphia. I feel like this a rarity these days, me not picking Philly when they're getting more than five points. And against Washington too, whom I love to pick against. I don't know. Guts!
Wizards won by 29. Won $190.
76ers playing to their skill level. Wizards playing to theirs
Atlanta vs Brooklyn. OFF THE BOARD. NO BET. For some reason, Bet365 is not currently accepting bets for this game. Don't know why.
Indiana (-12.5) over New York. Paul George is back from a horrendous broken leg he suffered over the summer. Obviously he's not back to what he was last year but if he can bring the Pacers from about 65% of last year's skill to 75%, that should be more than enough to dominate the Knicks.
Pacers won by 16. Won $190.
Ugh. The Knicks
Cleveland vs Milwaukee. OFF THE BOARD. NO BET. Another one.
Memphis (-5.0) over New Orleans. Memphis is turning (have turned) a corner and are playing better. I think Gasol can mitigate Davis at least somewhat and everyone can take care of business. Kind of depends on which Tyreke Evans shows up.
Grizzlies by 36. Won $190.
Holy cow.
Houston (+6.0) over San Antonio. Classic Pop rest game potential.
Spurs won by 12. Lost $100.
Spurs.
LA Lakers vs Denver. OFF THE BOARD. NO BET
Sacramento vs Utah. OFF THE BOARD. NO BET
Dallas (-9.0) over Phoenix. Phoenix has really nothing to play for, Dallas does.
Mavericks won by 3. Lost $100.
I'm going to assume that Dallas was favored by 9 in this one.
Portland (-16.5) over Minnesota. Back to back? Traveling? Onuaku? Give me Portland.
Trailblazers won by 25. Won $190.
Ugh the Wolves.
Totals: Bets: $900. Winnings: $1140. NET: +$240. Record: 6-3
April Totals: NET: +$760. Record: 24-14.
Good day. Very good day. There aren't enough games today to drop me to the red for the month so that's nice.
The Games 4/14 Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted
Toronto (-1.5) over Boston. I continually pick the Raptors and I usually pay for it.
Indiana (-7.0) over Washington. I'm picking the desperate team in this one.
LA Clippers (-10.0) over Phoenix. Neither team has anything to play for. I'll take the better one.
Go Flames Go.
Wednesday, 8 April 2015
Flames, I guess? Picks 4/8
I really don't have anything to say today. Some days, a topic will jump out at me and be on my mind the entire time I make my picks. Other days, I have nothing. Today is one of the latter kinds. The only thing I have to say is that the Flames' magic number to get into the playoffs is 1. A Kings loss OR a Flames win gets them in. Each have two games to go, one of those is against each other. This is exciting and terrifying. I don't even know what I want anymore!
Yesterday's picks!!
Results 4/7
Charlotte (+6.0) over Miami. The Heat are injured and the Hornets are inconsistent. I'm taking inconsistent today
Heat won by 5. Won $190.
Close win for me and an unfortunate loss for Charlotte. Twitter indicates they had the game in their control and lost it. Their season is pretty much over at this point though I don't know if they're mathematically eliminated quite yet.
Atlanta (-7.5) over Phoenix. This is a trap since it's unknown how much resting the Hawks will do.
Hawks won by 27. Won $190.
Dominant win. I always feel slightly embarrassed when I pick a team that gets absolutely crushed. Like there should have been some indicator that that would happen. It's weird. Fortunately I guessed correctly yesterday.
Golden State (-5.0) over New Orleans. I think Golden State will attempt to snatch back some mojo before the playoffs start.
Pelicans won by 3. Lost $100.
Another loss for Golden State. I'm sure at this point they're coasting. Pelicans are a desperate team now and have now snatched the last playoff spot in the West.
San Antonio (-6.0) over Oklahoma City. I feel like the Spurs are just posturing for position and maybe even playing for playoff matchups. We'll see if that's true. They could easily rest.
Spurs won by 25. Won $190.
The Thunder lost their playoff spot and as Popovich said after the game "it wasn't a fair fight". The Thunder are very injured right now (as opposed to the Wolves who are "injured") and that has taken its toll. As good as Westbrook is, he can't defend everyone and I'm sure he's running out of gas a bit.
Minnesota (+10.0) over Sacramento. I actually think that the Kings is the correct bet but I typed Minnesota first so maybe it's destiny...? But seriously, the Kings should take advantage of this dumpster fire.
Kings won by 5. Won $190.
My intuition was correct! Destiny and all that. This is exactly what the Wolves want, good production from the rookies (Wiggins: 26 pts, LaVine: 21 pts) and a close loss. Fantastic. The Wolves actually played 9 players, including Arinze Onuaku (whom I have no idea who that is. Certainly didn't know he was on the Wolves)
LA Lakers (+17.0) over LA Clippers. Oh my goodness. 17? I'll take the Lakers, I guess? It's just a lot.
Clippers won by 5. Won $190.
Twitter jokes explained. The Lakers and the Clippers play in the same arena, just a different floor and the Clippers cover up the Lakers' banners. So when they play each other and people comment how the "Lakers are a much better team on the road", the joke is that they're actually still playing at home, just with a different floor and such. You're welcome. Anyway, the Clippers should have won by more.
Totals: Bets: $600. Winnings: $950. NET: +$350. Record: 5-1
April totals: NET: +$520. Record: 18-11.
Great night. Getting into the homestretch of the picks season. There's only about two weeks left in the season so we're getting down to it.
Big night tonight. 13 games.
The Games 4/8 Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted
Boston (+1.0) over Detroit. Apparently Detroit is still in the playoff race. Go figure.
Chicago (-8.0) over Orlando. Odds: 1.86. Don't like Orlando. Certainly like Chicago more. Do not particularly like this pick.
Toronto (-3.0) over Charlotte. Am I a fool for picking Toronto again? They have to win again at some point?
Washington (-8.0) over Philadelphia. I feel like this a rarity these days, me not picking Philly when they're getting more than five points. And against Washington too, whom I love to pick against. I don't know. Guts!
Atlanta vs Brooklyn. OFF THE BOARD. NO BET. For some reason, Bet365 is not currently accepting bets for this game. Don't know why.
Indiana (-12.5) over New York. Paul George is back from a horrendous broken leg he suffered over the summer. Obviously he's not back to what he was last year but if he can bring the Pacers from about 65% of last year's skill to 75%, that should be more than enough to dominate the Knicks.
Cleveland vs Milwaukee. OFF THE BOARD. NO BET. Another one.
Memphis (-5.0) over New Orleans. Memphis is turning (have turned) a corner and are playing better. I think Gasol can mitigate Davis at least somewhat and everyone can take care of business. Kind of depends on which Tyreke Evans shows up.
Houston (+6.0) over San Antonio. Classic Pop rest game potential.
LA Lakers vs Denver. OFF THE BOARD. NO BET
Sacramento vs Utah. OFF THE BOARD. NO BET
Dallas (9.0) over Phoenix. Phoenix has really nothing to play for, Dallas does.
Portland (-16.5) over Minnesota. Back to back? Traveling? Onuaku? Give me Portland.
Lots of off the board games. I don't know what's going on. Maybe late in the season they don't worry as much about some games, or maybe there wasn't enough interest (I doubt that). Dunno. Turns out there's only 9 picks today.
Yesterday's picks!!
Results 4/7
Charlotte (+6.0) over Miami. The Heat are injured and the Hornets are inconsistent. I'm taking inconsistent today
Heat won by 5. Won $190.
Close win for me and an unfortunate loss for Charlotte. Twitter indicates they had the game in their control and lost it. Their season is pretty much over at this point though I don't know if they're mathematically eliminated quite yet.
Atlanta (-7.5) over Phoenix. This is a trap since it's unknown how much resting the Hawks will do.
Hawks won by 27. Won $190.
Dominant win. I always feel slightly embarrassed when I pick a team that gets absolutely crushed. Like there should have been some indicator that that would happen. It's weird. Fortunately I guessed correctly yesterday.
Golden State (-5.0) over New Orleans. I think Golden State will attempt to snatch back some mojo before the playoffs start.
Pelicans won by 3. Lost $100.
Another loss for Golden State. I'm sure at this point they're coasting. Pelicans are a desperate team now and have now snatched the last playoff spot in the West.
San Antonio (-6.0) over Oklahoma City. I feel like the Spurs are just posturing for position and maybe even playing for playoff matchups. We'll see if that's true. They could easily rest.
Spurs won by 25. Won $190.
The Thunder lost their playoff spot and as Popovich said after the game "it wasn't a fair fight". The Thunder are very injured right now (as opposed to the Wolves who are "injured") and that has taken its toll. As good as Westbrook is, he can't defend everyone and I'm sure he's running out of gas a bit.
Minnesota (+10.0) over Sacramento. I actually think that the Kings is the correct bet but I typed Minnesota first so maybe it's destiny...? But seriously, the Kings should take advantage of this dumpster fire.
Kings won by 5. Won $190.
My intuition was correct! Destiny and all that. This is exactly what the Wolves want, good production from the rookies (Wiggins: 26 pts, LaVine: 21 pts) and a close loss. Fantastic. The Wolves actually played 9 players, including Arinze Onuaku (whom I have no idea who that is. Certainly didn't know he was on the Wolves)
LA Lakers (+17.0) over LA Clippers. Oh my goodness. 17? I'll take the Lakers, I guess? It's just a lot.
Clippers won by 5. Won $190.
Twitter jokes explained. The Lakers and the Clippers play in the same arena, just a different floor and the Clippers cover up the Lakers' banners. So when they play each other and people comment how the "Lakers are a much better team on the road", the joke is that they're actually still playing at home, just with a different floor and such. You're welcome. Anyway, the Clippers should have won by more.
Totals: Bets: $600. Winnings: $950. NET: +$350. Record: 5-1
April totals: NET: +$520. Record: 18-11.
Great night. Getting into the homestretch of the picks season. There's only about two weeks left in the season so we're getting down to it.
Big night tonight. 13 games.
The Games 4/8 Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted
Boston (+1.0) over Detroit. Apparently Detroit is still in the playoff race. Go figure.
Chicago (-8.0) over Orlando. Odds: 1.86. Don't like Orlando. Certainly like Chicago more. Do not particularly like this pick.
Toronto (-3.0) over Charlotte. Am I a fool for picking Toronto again? They have to win again at some point?
Washington (-8.0) over Philadelphia. I feel like this a rarity these days, me not picking Philly when they're getting more than five points. And against Washington too, whom I love to pick against. I don't know. Guts!
Atlanta vs Brooklyn. OFF THE BOARD. NO BET. For some reason, Bet365 is not currently accepting bets for this game. Don't know why.
Indiana (-12.5) over New York. Paul George is back from a horrendous broken leg he suffered over the summer. Obviously he's not back to what he was last year but if he can bring the Pacers from about 65% of last year's skill to 75%, that should be more than enough to dominate the Knicks.
Cleveland vs Milwaukee. OFF THE BOARD. NO BET. Another one.
Memphis (-5.0) over New Orleans. Memphis is turning (have turned) a corner and are playing better. I think Gasol can mitigate Davis at least somewhat and everyone can take care of business. Kind of depends on which Tyreke Evans shows up.
Houston (+6.0) over San Antonio. Classic Pop rest game potential.
LA Lakers vs Denver. OFF THE BOARD. NO BET
Sacramento vs Utah. OFF THE BOARD. NO BET
Dallas (9.0) over Phoenix. Phoenix has really nothing to play for, Dallas does.
Portland (-16.5) over Minnesota. Back to back? Traveling? Onuaku? Give me Portland.
Lots of off the board games. I don't know what's going on. Maybe late in the season they don't worry as much about some games, or maybe there wasn't enough interest (I doubt that). Dunno. Turns out there's only 9 picks today.
Tuesday, 7 April 2015
Sports luck. Picks 4/7
I read an article by Samuel Arbesman on Wired.com where he interviewed Michael Mauboussin about his book The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing. He presents a continuum of Luck vs Skill and their impact on the outcomes of various sports. *Please note that he uses a specific definition for Luck and that by saying a sport has more Luck involved, he does not say that skill is less important. He says that there are more random events that can swing the game in the favor of one team over another in some sports.*
On this continuum, basketball is the highest on the skill side and hockey is the lowest on the skill (highest luck, if you prefer), with soccer, baseball, and football in order of highest to lowest pure skill effect.
This is a wordier-than-it-needs-to-be example on why I pick NBA games. It is my belief, and Mr. Mauboussin agrees (though he uses actual measurements) that NBA games are "easier" to predict. Frequent readers will note that that does not seem to help me, but you can usually point to more concrete reasons in basketball. The number of possessions, the scoring system, the amount of players on the court all contribute to the better basketball teams usually winning the game.
As an example of this, let's briefly look at an impact play that happens in each sport besides baseball, a change of possession and quick score. *this is one example of basketball vs the others, not comparing the others against each other. There's a lot more that goes into all of this.* In Football, this is a pick-6, punt/kickoff return touchdown, or fumble recovery and run. Soccer, Hockey, and Basketball, it's a steal or missed shot and counterattack/breakaway.
Football - Potentially responsible for between 1/5 to 1/3 of the scoring (give or take) for the entire game for the one team
Soccer - Generally responsible for between 1/3 and all of the scoring for the one team
Hockey - Could be between 1/4 to 1/2 for the one team
*These are all pure estimations off the top of my head of the average scoring amount in a typical game*
Basketball - Could be between 1/43 to 1/50 for the one team.
Each sport also experiences a momentum swing.
The point is that in basketball, the better team has many more opportunities to make up the one disastrous play. It's harder to pinpoint a "turning point" because of the sheer number of events that happen in each game. Basketball is an easier game to predict a winner, which is part of the reason why gambling requires spreads to create even bets.
I feel like it's easier to become good at predicting basketball games than most other sports.
*There are a lot of "well buts" that go along with only using one example to explain my point. There are holes and I'm sure I could think of counterarguments to supplement but I just don't feel like it*
Only one game last night, terrifying to me from a picks perspective
Results 4/6
Portland (+6.0) over Brooklyn. The Nets continue to bite me in the butt but I like Portland's chances in this game. This makes me think that Aldridge or Lillard isn't playing for some reason but six points is a lot.
Nets won by 10. Lost $100.
Aldridge didn't play. I thought that Portland would still win because I still don't think that Brooklyn is very good. Turns out I was wrong.
Totals: Bets: $100. Winnings: $0. NET: -$100. Record: 0-1
April Totals: +$170. Record: 13-10.
As I mentioned yesterday, I hate days like this where it can go great or terribly. It went terribly yesterday but, on the plus side, I could only lose a maximum of $100. And that's what I did.
Another small-ish night, with only 6 games.
The Games 4/7 Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted
Charlotte (+6.0) over Miami. The Heat are injured and the Hornets are inconsistent. I'm taking inconsistent today
Atlanta (-7.5) over Phoenix. This is a trap since it's unknown how much resting the Hawks will do.
Golden State (-5.0) over New Orleans. I think Golden State will attempt to snatch back some mojo before the playoffs start.
San Antonio (-6.0) over Oklahoma City. I feel like the Spurs are just posturing for position and maybe even playing for playoff matchups. We'll see if that's true. They could easily rest.
Minnesota (+10.0) over Sacramento. I actually think that the Kings is the correct bet but I typed Minnesota first so maybe it's destiny...? But seriously, the Kings should take advantage of this dumpster fire.
LA Lakers (+17.0) over LA Clippers. Oh my goodness. 17? I'll take the Lakers, I guess? It's just a lot.
Congrats to the Duke Blue Devils and their fans on the National Championship. It was a very good game even though I think Duke gained the benefit of some questionable foul calls to swing the momentum. I would have preferred a Wisconsin win but I like Coach K and Duke. Always have.
On this continuum, basketball is the highest on the skill side and hockey is the lowest on the skill (highest luck, if you prefer), with soccer, baseball, and football in order of highest to lowest pure skill effect.
This is a wordier-than-it-needs-to-be example on why I pick NBA games. It is my belief, and Mr. Mauboussin agrees (though he uses actual measurements) that NBA games are "easier" to predict. Frequent readers will note that that does not seem to help me, but you can usually point to more concrete reasons in basketball. The number of possessions, the scoring system, the amount of players on the court all contribute to the better basketball teams usually winning the game.
As an example of this, let's briefly look at an impact play that happens in each sport besides baseball, a change of possession and quick score. *this is one example of basketball vs the others, not comparing the others against each other. There's a lot more that goes into all of this.* In Football, this is a pick-6, punt/kickoff return touchdown, or fumble recovery and run. Soccer, Hockey, and Basketball, it's a steal or missed shot and counterattack/breakaway.
Football - Potentially responsible for between 1/5 to 1/3 of the scoring (give or take) for the entire game for the one team
Soccer - Generally responsible for between 1/3 and all of the scoring for the one team
Hockey - Could be between 1/4 to 1/2 for the one team
*These are all pure estimations off the top of my head of the average scoring amount in a typical game*
Basketball - Could be between 1/43 to 1/50 for the one team.
Each sport also experiences a momentum swing.
The point is that in basketball, the better team has many more opportunities to make up the one disastrous play. It's harder to pinpoint a "turning point" because of the sheer number of events that happen in each game. Basketball is an easier game to predict a winner, which is part of the reason why gambling requires spreads to create even bets.
I feel like it's easier to become good at predicting basketball games than most other sports.
*There are a lot of "well buts" that go along with only using one example to explain my point. There are holes and I'm sure I could think of counterarguments to supplement but I just don't feel like it*
Only one game last night, terrifying to me from a picks perspective
Results 4/6
Portland (+6.0) over Brooklyn. The Nets continue to bite me in the butt but I like Portland's chances in this game. This makes me think that Aldridge or Lillard isn't playing for some reason but six points is a lot.
Nets won by 10. Lost $100.
Aldridge didn't play. I thought that Portland would still win because I still don't think that Brooklyn is very good. Turns out I was wrong.
Totals: Bets: $100. Winnings: $0. NET: -$100. Record: 0-1
April Totals: +$170. Record: 13-10.
As I mentioned yesterday, I hate days like this where it can go great or terribly. It went terribly yesterday but, on the plus side, I could only lose a maximum of $100. And that's what I did.
Another small-ish night, with only 6 games.
The Games 4/7 Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted
Charlotte (+6.0) over Miami. The Heat are injured and the Hornets are inconsistent. I'm taking inconsistent today
Atlanta (-7.5) over Phoenix. This is a trap since it's unknown how much resting the Hawks will do.
Golden State (-5.0) over New Orleans. I think Golden State will attempt to snatch back some mojo before the playoffs start.
San Antonio (-6.0) over Oklahoma City. I feel like the Spurs are just posturing for position and maybe even playing for playoff matchups. We'll see if that's true. They could easily rest.
Minnesota (+10.0) over Sacramento. I actually think that the Kings is the correct bet but I typed Minnesota first so maybe it's destiny...? But seriously, the Kings should take advantage of this dumpster fire.
LA Lakers (+17.0) over LA Clippers. Oh my goodness. 17? I'll take the Lakers, I guess? It's just a lot.
Congrats to the Duke Blue Devils and their fans on the National Championship. It was a very good game even though I think Duke gained the benefit of some questionable foul calls to swing the momentum. I would have preferred a Wisconsin win but I like Coach K and Duke. Always have.
Monday, 6 April 2015
Go Badgers. Picks 4/6
On Saturday night, the Wisconsin Badgers defeated the previously unbeaten Kentucky Wildcats. FiveThirtyEight, a great statistical analysis site, gave the Badgers a 31% chance to win the game. I find this sort of probability strange in an abstract sense. It really means that, if this game was played 100 times, Wisconsin would win 31 times. Now, FiveThirtyEight takes into account way more than you or I would when discussing Wisconsin's chances, and they cam up with 31%.
My issue with a lot of numbers like this are that they can't measure everything. For all we know, Kentucky had no chance in this game, a ridiculous thought unless you subscribe to destiny theories. *Quick note: I'm watching the game as I type. Wisconsin's big guys (Kaminsky and Dekker) are extremely skilled with the ball and Kentucky switches everything. Wisconsin put the ball in the hands of their big men and ran screens until they are matched up with someone who they could bully. Lots of And-1s. That's gameplanning*
I enjoy the predictive nature of statistics but I hesitate to apply statistical predictions to single games. The sample size is way too small and (especially in college basketball) the variability is very high. I admire the FiveThirtyEight model, but from a pure basketball fandom standpoint, Wisconsin had a higher than 31% chance to win the game.
I would not say it wasn't an upset. Kentucky was undefeated and clearly the better team throughout the year, but don't let anyone tell you it was a historic upset (I don't know if that narrative is being perpetuated). Lest we forget, Wisconsin was also a 1 seed.
Go Badgers
Results 4/3
Charlotte (+5.0) over Indiana. I like Charlotte to keep it close or win. Indiana doesn't usually blow teams out and Charlotte CAN play well, unknown whether they will.
Pacers won by 19. Lost $100.
The Hornets only scored 73 points and the Pacers, though they aren't great offensively, are good enough to take advantage of that. Holding a team to that low of a point total will generally lead to better offense, with turnovers and fast breaks.
Washington (-14.5) over New York. Boy, I don't like this. Washington is inconsistent and New York sucks (but is also inconsistent) so we'll see.
Wizards won by 14. Lost $100.
Winning by 14 is nothing to sniff at, but they should've won by 15
Milwaukee (+5.5) over Boston. I like Boston but I'm getting a gut feeling that Milwaukee's going to turn it on to finish the season.
Bucks won by 9. Won $190.
Good win for Milwaukee. Unrelated: the Bucks are getting a new logo. From the leaks, it just looks more ferocious. I don't know if it's better. It's not much worse, though, if any. It'll probably grow on me.
Toronto (+2.5) over Brooklyn. The Raptors need to beat the Nets. The Nets are ok but far from great. The Raptors want to be great. They need this win.
Nets won by 5. Lost $100.
C'mon Toronto. They are not playing the way they should. Do I need to just start picking against them as a rule?
Chicago (-9.0) over Detroit. Drummond is playing great but the Bulls can mostly cancel that with Noah, every other position is pretty clearly in Chicago's favor.
Bulls won by 6. Lost $100.
I'm surprised this was as close as it was. Detroit is another one of those teams that are tough to pick, though.
Memphis (-6.5) over Oklahoma City. I think Memphis is turning a corner and the Thunder need someone other than Westbrook to catch fire. The Grizzlies can shut down Westbrook at least somewhat.
Grizzlies won by 8. Won $190.
Westbrook was not OKC\s leading scorer in this game and I have to think that was intentional on Memphis's part. Make someone else beat them.
Orlando (-3.5) over Minnesota. I wonder if the Wolves will only play with 4 players tonight. I think they'll be Wiggins, LaVine, Hamilton, and Payne. I think they'll do it just to see if they'll get away with it. (it sucks being a Wolves fan right now).
Magic won by 13. Won $190.
I don't even know. Jahlil Okafor looks good for Duke. Karl-Anthony Towns looks good for Kentucky. They both are great fits for Minnesota and one will likely go there, as long as the Wolves get one of the top two picks.
San Antonio (-12.5) over Denver. The Spurs are trying (and succeeding) to peak right now. It's weird that they can seem to do that.
Spurs won by 30. Won $190.
The second and fourth quarters were played evenly. I'll let you figure out how the other two went.
Sacramento (+6.5) over New Orleans. I'm picking a random "Kings competence game". I dunno.
Pelicans won by 6. Won $190.
Finally a close win. The Kings aren't tanking, they're trying to figure out what they have. If they were tanking, this would be the ideal win. Competitive against a desperate team, but they still lost.
Portland (-10.5) over LA Lakers. Picking the good team in this one. Not overthinking it.
Trailblazers won by 30. Won $190.
Didn't overthink it. It paid off.
Totals: Bets: $1000. Winnings: $1140. NET: +$140. Record: 6-4.
April Totals: NET: +$270. Record: 13-9
The early games were rough for me, but the late games were so nice. Had a half-point win either way so I can't complain too much.
Only one game tonight. I hate days like this
The Games
Portland (+6.0) over Brooklyn. The Nets continue to bite me in the butt but I like Portland's chances in this game. This makes me think that Aldridge or Lillard isn't playing for some reason but six points is a lot.
Enjoy the NCAA Championship game.
My issue with a lot of numbers like this are that they can't measure everything. For all we know, Kentucky had no chance in this game, a ridiculous thought unless you subscribe to destiny theories. *Quick note: I'm watching the game as I type. Wisconsin's big guys (Kaminsky and Dekker) are extremely skilled with the ball and Kentucky switches everything. Wisconsin put the ball in the hands of their big men and ran screens until they are matched up with someone who they could bully. Lots of And-1s. That's gameplanning*
I enjoy the predictive nature of statistics but I hesitate to apply statistical predictions to single games. The sample size is way too small and (especially in college basketball) the variability is very high. I admire the FiveThirtyEight model, but from a pure basketball fandom standpoint, Wisconsin had a higher than 31% chance to win the game.
I would not say it wasn't an upset. Kentucky was undefeated and clearly the better team throughout the year, but don't let anyone tell you it was a historic upset (I don't know if that narrative is being perpetuated). Lest we forget, Wisconsin was also a 1 seed.
Go Badgers
Results 4/3
Charlotte (+5.0) over Indiana. I like Charlotte to keep it close or win. Indiana doesn't usually blow teams out and Charlotte CAN play well, unknown whether they will.
Pacers won by 19. Lost $100.
The Hornets only scored 73 points and the Pacers, though they aren't great offensively, are good enough to take advantage of that. Holding a team to that low of a point total will generally lead to better offense, with turnovers and fast breaks.
Washington (-14.5) over New York. Boy, I don't like this. Washington is inconsistent and New York sucks (but is also inconsistent) so we'll see.
Wizards won by 14. Lost $100.
Winning by 14 is nothing to sniff at, but they should've won by 15
Milwaukee (+5.5) over Boston. I like Boston but I'm getting a gut feeling that Milwaukee's going to turn it on to finish the season.
Bucks won by 9. Won $190.
Good win for Milwaukee. Unrelated: the Bucks are getting a new logo. From the leaks, it just looks more ferocious. I don't know if it's better. It's not much worse, though, if any. It'll probably grow on me.
Toronto (+2.5) over Brooklyn. The Raptors need to beat the Nets. The Nets are ok but far from great. The Raptors want to be great. They need this win.
Nets won by 5. Lost $100.
C'mon Toronto. They are not playing the way they should. Do I need to just start picking against them as a rule?
Chicago (-9.0) over Detroit. Drummond is playing great but the Bulls can mostly cancel that with Noah, every other position is pretty clearly in Chicago's favor.
Bulls won by 6. Lost $100.
I'm surprised this was as close as it was. Detroit is another one of those teams that are tough to pick, though.
Memphis (-6.5) over Oklahoma City. I think Memphis is turning a corner and the Thunder need someone other than Westbrook to catch fire. The Grizzlies can shut down Westbrook at least somewhat.
Grizzlies won by 8. Won $190.
Westbrook was not OKC\s leading scorer in this game and I have to think that was intentional on Memphis's part. Make someone else beat them.
Orlando (-3.5) over Minnesota. I wonder if the Wolves will only play with 4 players tonight. I think they'll be Wiggins, LaVine, Hamilton, and Payne. I think they'll do it just to see if they'll get away with it. (it sucks being a Wolves fan right now).
Magic won by 13. Won $190.
I don't even know. Jahlil Okafor looks good for Duke. Karl-Anthony Towns looks good for Kentucky. They both are great fits for Minnesota and one will likely go there, as long as the Wolves get one of the top two picks.
San Antonio (-12.5) over Denver. The Spurs are trying (and succeeding) to peak right now. It's weird that they can seem to do that.
Spurs won by 30. Won $190.
The second and fourth quarters were played evenly. I'll let you figure out how the other two went.
Sacramento (+6.5) over New Orleans. I'm picking a random "Kings competence game". I dunno.
Pelicans won by 6. Won $190.
Finally a close win. The Kings aren't tanking, they're trying to figure out what they have. If they were tanking, this would be the ideal win. Competitive against a desperate team, but they still lost.
Portland (-10.5) over LA Lakers. Picking the good team in this one. Not overthinking it.
Trailblazers won by 30. Won $190.
Didn't overthink it. It paid off.
Totals: Bets: $1000. Winnings: $1140. NET: +$140. Record: 6-4.
April Totals: NET: +$270. Record: 13-9
The early games were rough for me, but the late games were so nice. Had a half-point win either way so I can't complain too much.
Only one game tonight. I hate days like this
The Games
Portland (+6.0) over Brooklyn. The Nets continue to bite me in the butt but I like Portland's chances in this game. This makes me think that Aldridge or Lillard isn't playing for some reason but six points is a lot.
Enjoy the NCAA Championship game.
Friday, 3 April 2015
Tanking
Let’s fix tanking. It’s April and that means playoff hopes
for some NBA and NHL teams and dreams of great draft picks for others. It’s
also the time of year where we “serious” sports fans bemoan the existence of
tanking. That is, the intentional losing of games in order to boost a team’s
chances at the best pick. As a Wolves fan, I know all about this. As a Flames
fan, I should know all about this (but not this year). The main question is,
how do we stop tanking?
A secondary question, asked before the first, is this, is
tanking actually a problem?
On the one hand, tanking teams are notoriously terrible to
watch. The Wolves have played with only 7 or 8 healthy players the last week or
so. That’s ridiculous. The quality of play stinks and no one wants to pay money
to see a team fall flat on their face. The Toronto-Buffalo NHL game on
Wednesday had fans of one team cheering when the other team scored. Funny? Kind
of. But also sad. A fan should not be tempted to turn on their team, even if it’s
in the team’s best long run interest.
On the other hand, I watched highlights of the
Edmonton-Anaheim game, and of the seven or so clips shown from the game, four
or five of them were Anaheim breakaways or partial breakaways. There is such a
talent gap between the two teams that, whether or not Edmonton actively tanked
that game (unlikely), they might as well have. They need a really good player
and tanking would give them that.
The current system of determining draft picks is a weighted,
not super lottery-ish, lottery. This is true in both NBA and NHL. The weights
are different but the worst team in the NHL has a 20% chance at the #1 pick,
second worst has an 11% chance (or something), and so forth. The NBA is
similar. I’m not sure what the NBA rules are, I believe that the worst team is
guaranteed a top 4 pick where in the NHL, a team can only slide down one spot
or up a maximum of two. Confusing? It’s not really, but it’s hard to explain
succinctly. The point is that the worst teams have the best chance of
getting the best pick. It’s not a guarantee but it’s close to one. The current
lottery systems encourage tanking and teams are unwilling to hurt their chances
at the best pick possible.
For the record, I think tanking should be stopped. I have a
solution.
My solution isn’t great, its issues will be discussed, but I
think it’s better than what we have now. *Note: This isn’t my idea and
something similar was proposed at the Sloan Sports Conference. I just like it.*
The solution is to have a system where a separate tally of wins (or points) are
kept from the moment a team is mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. The
highest point getters in that category get the better picks.
Example: Team A is mathematically eliminated from the
playoffs with 22 games to go. They then win 10 games the rest of the way. Team B
is mathematically eliminated with 16 games to go, then go on a run and win 12
games. B would receive a better draft pick than A even though they were
mathematically eliminated later.
Positives: This would give teams incentive to keep trying
and prevent them from attempting to sell off their assets and “burn the team to
the ground”. This would also maintain fan interest and keep them invested in
the success of the team. It would certainly be more interesting. The worst
teams still have the best chance at getting the top picks because they’ll have
more opportunities to rack up the secondary wins.
Negatives: The biggest downside is that the worst teams are
the worst. Even giving them more opportunities will not necessarily give them a
chance. They will be easier to leapfrog because they are so bad. Also what if
teams intentionally tank the first part and then turn it on?
Rebuttals:
A – I believe that there are ways to turn a team
around than by the draft. Drafting is an important part of rebuilding but you
need more than the first round pick to make a difference, especially in the
NHL. NBA places more emphasis on top picks by nature of the game. But the NHL
has numerous examples of top picks not really helping their team (see: Oilers,
Edmonton). You almost have to “earn” a
top pick. A GM/Coach/Team has to reach a certain level of competence (not too
much though) in order to deserve the best player. And maybe that would result
in less players going to these bad teams and getting “ruined”. It may also
prevent teams from taking the attitude of “we just need this one player, then
we can start building”. A great pick can help vault a rebuild, rarely can a top
pick (in the NHL especially) be the foundation for the start of a rebuild.
B – I think this type of tanking would be more difficult to
accomplish. And if it does come up, then it’s not much different than what we
have now.
Variation: I could see a scenario where this type of seeding
is only relevant for the first round. Subsequent rounds are placed by reverse
order of standings, like usual, with the worst team being guaranteed the first
pick in each round after the first. Thereby giving the bad teams a shot at the
theoretically best players available at each round.
That’s my idea, I think it would, at minimum, be much more
interesting than the current system, but could actually fix a lot of the issues
they currently have.
March Recap. Picks 4/3
I have a blog on tanking coming up later today. I actually wrote it yesterday when I didn't write a picks blog.
I didn't write yesterday because I was having trouble with my internet, it was crazy slow and not loading pages. Turns out my issue was with Firefox and I could've wrote yesterday. Go figure.
Results 4/1
Charlotte (-4.5) over Detroit. Detroit is fresh off a very good win over Atlanta. They then have to travel and play a desperate team. They aren't consistent enough for my liking.
Hornets won by 24. Won $190.
A dominant victory. The Pistons were inconsistently bad, the Hornets inconsistently good. weird.
Philadelphia (+10.0) over Washington. I guess I just don't trust Washington to win by as much as they should.
Wizards won by 13. Lost $100.
I was actually decently close to this. This was all 4th quarter though. The 76ers won the 4th by 18. Shows how the other three quarters went.
San Antonio (-9.5) over Orlando. Seems like a lot of points but I'll take the Spurs to do what they need to.
Spurs won by 12. Won $190.
Another "4th quarter foot off the gas", the Magic won the 4th by 10 and still lost by 12.
New York (+10.0) over Brooklyn. Ugh, I can't imagine this game is going to be very high quality. I continue to not believe in the Nets, but 10 points is a lot for a team I don't particularly care for.
Nets won by 2. Won $190.
This game does not give me confidence in the Nets...
Boston (-3.0) over Indiana. Boston is playing at a high level right now and Indiana is on a traveling back-to-back.
Celtics won by 13. Won by $190.
The Pacers are decent this year, but, make no mistake, the talent level is lacking. Watch out for them next year.
Chicago (-5.0) over Milwaukee. The Bulls are better than the Bucks and I don't think Chicago is going to sit secure in their playoff position.
Bucks won by 4. Lost $100.
Milwaukee is weird. I don't think they'll make much noise in the playoffs this year but it'll be interesting to see how they do moving forward. They are approaching good team status
Dallas (+2.5) over Oklahoma City. Westbrook continues on his MVP campaign but Dallas needs to keep pace to maintain their playoff position.
Mavericks won by 4. Won $190.
This game was 135-131. Sounds like it was entertaining. This is a lost season for OKC but they are in good position for playoffs, for what it's worth
Houston (-11.5) over Sacramento. I'm going gut on this one. It's a lot of points and I don't really have a lot of confidence in the pick, but I'm going with it anyway.
Rockets won by 4. Lost $100.
A surprisingly competent game from the Kings. They'll do that.
Minnesota (+9.5) over Toronto. I picked the Wolves the last time these two played and it worked out. I think a similar thing this time. The Raptors aren't playing as well as they should and Wiggins will want to do well.
Raptors won by 14. Lost $100.
It was a little ambitious, I guess. This game was painful to watch. Full disclosure: I can't stand listening to the Raptors broadcasters. They're not as bad as some, and they at least acknowledge the other team has existed all year, but I can't stand Jack Armstrong. Sorry!
Utah (-4.0) over Denver. Going with the "hard to beat a team twice in a week".
Jazz won by 14. Won $190.
My logic worked again!!
Portland (-3.0) over LA Clippers. Clippers have to travel up the coast after playing yesterday.
Clippers won by 4. Lost $100.
Clippers won the second half by 17, which tells you how the first half went. Usually if there's a discrepancy between halves, the second half is worse for the team on the second half of a back to back. Defying the odds over here.
New Orleans (-8.0) over LA Lakers. The Pelicans should dominate, though I have to wonder if this is a random Lakers competence possibility.
Pelicans won by 21. Won $190.
Anthony Davis is great, even if the rest of the team isn't great. They could be great soon, if the coach is up to it, right now they're only good.
April and daily Totals: Bets: $1200. Winnings: $1330. NET: +$130. Record: 7-5
I never reviewed the yearly totals so I'll do that here. Good start to April though.
I finished March in the positives, not a ton but every little bit helps.
After March, I have a 2015 NET total of an even $600. I'm RICH!
Another big day today, 10 games.
The Games 4/3 Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted
Charlotte (+5.0) over Indiana. I like Charlotte to keep it close or win. Indiana doesn't usually blow teams out and Charlotte CAN play well, unknown whether they will.
Washington (-14.5) over New York. Boy, I don't like this. Washington is inconsistent and New York sucks (but is also inconsistent) so we'll see.
Milwaukee (+5.5) over Boston. I like Boston but I'm getting a gut feeling that Milwaukee's going to turn it on to finish the season.
Toronto (+2.5) over Brooklyn. The Raptors need to beat the Nets. The Nets are ok but far from great. The Raptors want to be great. They need this win.
Chicago (-9.0) over Detroit. Drummond is playing great but the Bulls can mostly cancel that with Noah, every other position is pretty clearly in Chicago's favor.
Memphis (-6.5) over Oklahoma City. I think Memphis is turning a corner and the Thunder need someone other than Westbrook to catch fire. The Grizzlies can shut down Westbrook at least somewhat.
Orlando (-3.5) over Minnesota. I wonder if the Wolves will only play with 4 players tonight. I think they'll be Wiggins, LaVine, Hamilton, and Payne. I think they'll do it just to see if they'll get away with it. (it sucks being a Wolves fan right now).
San Antonio (-12.5) over Denver. The Spurs are trying (and succeeding) to peak right now. It's weird that they can seem to do that.
Sacramento (+6.5) over New Orleans. I'm picking a random "Kings competence game". I dunno.
Portland (-10.5) over LA Lakers. Picking the good team in this one. Not overthinking it.
Happy Easter everyone.
I didn't write yesterday because I was having trouble with my internet, it was crazy slow and not loading pages. Turns out my issue was with Firefox and I could've wrote yesterday. Go figure.
Results 4/1
Charlotte (-4.5) over Detroit. Detroit is fresh off a very good win over Atlanta. They then have to travel and play a desperate team. They aren't consistent enough for my liking.
Hornets won by 24. Won $190.
A dominant victory. The Pistons were inconsistently bad, the Hornets inconsistently good. weird.
Philadelphia (+10.0) over Washington. I guess I just don't trust Washington to win by as much as they should.
Wizards won by 13. Lost $100.
I was actually decently close to this. This was all 4th quarter though. The 76ers won the 4th by 18. Shows how the other three quarters went.
San Antonio (-9.5) over Orlando. Seems like a lot of points but I'll take the Spurs to do what they need to.
Spurs won by 12. Won $190.
Another "4th quarter foot off the gas", the Magic won the 4th by 10 and still lost by 12.
New York (+10.0) over Brooklyn. Ugh, I can't imagine this game is going to be very high quality. I continue to not believe in the Nets, but 10 points is a lot for a team I don't particularly care for.
Nets won by 2. Won $190.
This game does not give me confidence in the Nets...
Boston (-3.0) over Indiana. Boston is playing at a high level right now and Indiana is on a traveling back-to-back.
Celtics won by 13. Won by $190.
The Pacers are decent this year, but, make no mistake, the talent level is lacking. Watch out for them next year.
Chicago (-5.0) over Milwaukee. The Bulls are better than the Bucks and I don't think Chicago is going to sit secure in their playoff position.
Bucks won by 4. Lost $100.
Milwaukee is weird. I don't think they'll make much noise in the playoffs this year but it'll be interesting to see how they do moving forward. They are approaching good team status
Dallas (+2.5) over Oklahoma City. Westbrook continues on his MVP campaign but Dallas needs to keep pace to maintain their playoff position.
Mavericks won by 4. Won $190.
This game was 135-131. Sounds like it was entertaining. This is a lost season for OKC but they are in good position for playoffs, for what it's worth
Houston (-11.5) over Sacramento. I'm going gut on this one. It's a lot of points and I don't really have a lot of confidence in the pick, but I'm going with it anyway.
Rockets won by 4. Lost $100.
A surprisingly competent game from the Kings. They'll do that.
Minnesota (+9.5) over Toronto. I picked the Wolves the last time these two played and it worked out. I think a similar thing this time. The Raptors aren't playing as well as they should and Wiggins will want to do well.
Raptors won by 14. Lost $100.
It was a little ambitious, I guess. This game was painful to watch. Full disclosure: I can't stand listening to the Raptors broadcasters. They're not as bad as some, and they at least acknowledge the other team has existed all year, but I can't stand Jack Armstrong. Sorry!
Utah (-4.0) over Denver. Going with the "hard to beat a team twice in a week".
Jazz won by 14. Won $190.
My logic worked again!!
Portland (-3.0) over LA Clippers. Clippers have to travel up the coast after playing yesterday.
Clippers won by 4. Lost $100.
Clippers won the second half by 17, which tells you how the first half went. Usually if there's a discrepancy between halves, the second half is worse for the team on the second half of a back to back. Defying the odds over here.
New Orleans (-8.0) over LA Lakers. The Pelicans should dominate, though I have to wonder if this is a random Lakers competence possibility.
Pelicans won by 21. Won $190.
Anthony Davis is great, even if the rest of the team isn't great. They could be great soon, if the coach is up to it, right now they're only good.
April and daily Totals: Bets: $1200. Winnings: $1330. NET: +$130. Record: 7-5
I never reviewed the yearly totals so I'll do that here. Good start to April though.
I finished March in the positives, not a ton but every little bit helps.
After March, I have a 2015 NET total of an even $600. I'm RICH!
Another big day today, 10 games.
The Games 4/3 Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted
Charlotte (+5.0) over Indiana. I like Charlotte to keep it close or win. Indiana doesn't usually blow teams out and Charlotte CAN play well, unknown whether they will.
Washington (-14.5) over New York. Boy, I don't like this. Washington is inconsistent and New York sucks (but is also inconsistent) so we'll see.
Milwaukee (+5.5) over Boston. I like Boston but I'm getting a gut feeling that Milwaukee's going to turn it on to finish the season.
Toronto (+2.5) over Brooklyn. The Raptors need to beat the Nets. The Nets are ok but far from great. The Raptors want to be great. They need this win.
Chicago (-9.0) over Detroit. Drummond is playing great but the Bulls can mostly cancel that with Noah, every other position is pretty clearly in Chicago's favor.
Memphis (-6.5) over Oklahoma City. I think Memphis is turning a corner and the Thunder need someone other than Westbrook to catch fire. The Grizzlies can shut down Westbrook at least somewhat.
Orlando (-3.5) over Minnesota. I wonder if the Wolves will only play with 4 players tonight. I think they'll be Wiggins, LaVine, Hamilton, and Payne. I think they'll do it just to see if they'll get away with it. (it sucks being a Wolves fan right now).
San Antonio (-12.5) over Denver. The Spurs are trying (and succeeding) to peak right now. It's weird that they can seem to do that.
Sacramento (+6.5) over New Orleans. I'm picking a random "Kings competence game". I dunno.
Portland (-10.5) over LA Lakers. Picking the good team in this one. Not overthinking it.
Happy Easter everyone.
Wednesday, 1 April 2015
Traditionalists v. Analytics. Picks 4/1
I've started a couple blogs this way and I'll do it again. I like statistics, analytics and such. I saw on twitter that people were slamming Steve Simmons, an outspoken hockey analytics critic. I don't know much about him, he strikes me as a journalist who is too passionate about his position. But it brings up some interesting thoughts, the "battle" between the traditionalists and analytics.
Traditionalists use statistics to belabor their point as much as analysts (shorthand it to that for ease), they just use different (and simpler) statistics. Things like Shots on Goal and Hits are held up as the true measures of the sport against Corsi and Fenwick. Another difference is the emphasis. Traditionalists tend to argue in favor of immeasurable stats like "grit" and "leadership" whereas the analysts look at how they play. Just by reading that last sentence, you might be tempted to just accept that the analysts have the right of it. Players should be judged based on what thy actually produce. There will always be resistance. Moneyball is a great example of the integration of advanced stats into baseball, but the Athletics haven't won a World Series (the Red Sox have, using similar emphasis).
This year, a team that can be used to argue against analytics would be my Calgary Flames. They are currently sitting in a playoff position and are in good shape to stay there. The thing is, the Flames have terrible advanced stats. There's no measurable reason for them to do as well as they are, besides, of course, the goals for and against each game. So the traditionalists can point to the Flames and laugh and say "didn't see that coming, did you?" Funny story, though, the Flames are also one of those teams that traditionalists and analysts agreed would be terrible. The ambiguity of some traditional measures (ie grit) is the only reason it's not as easy to make fun of tradition for missing the Flames.
So really, everyone's in the same boat. Except that advanced stats are better
(*Side note: Blocked shots are a great example of a stat that divides analytics and traditionalists. The Traditionalists say "how great! He sacrifices his body to prevent a goal scoring opportunity." The Analytics say "good job, but a really good player would prevent a goal scoring opportunity by getting the puck into the offensive zone")
Results 3/31
Boston (+3.5) over Charlotte. Boston is much more consistent than Charlotte. Charlotte is better than Boston but we'll see.
Celtics won by 12. Won $190.
Boston is playing so well. Charlotte is not. The Hornets needed this win but Boston's rolling.
Philadelphia (-4.5) over LA Lakers. At this point, the 76ers are much better than the Lakers.
Lakers won by 2 (OT). Lost $100.
This was surprising to me. But the Lakers have games where they're very competitive. To be fair, it is the 76ers (who are actively tanking), but still.
Houston (+1.5) over Toronto. Still don't trust the Raptors.
Raptors won by 3. Lost $100.
It was decently close all game but the Raptors came back continuously. Maybe this is the spark Toronto needs, still playing without Lowry.
Atlanta (-8.5) over Milwaukee. Atlanta should dominate. They may not, but that's a risk I'm willing to take.
Hawks won by 13. Won $190.
Good win over a team the Hawks should beat. It was good.
Memphis (-10.0) over Sacramento. Sacramento kind of stinks and Memphis is great.
Grizzlies won by 14. Won $190.
Solid win by the Grizzlies. Sacramento continues to experiment.
Utah (-7.0) over Minnesota. Utah is pretty good at defense and the Wolves stink at offense. The non-tanking continues.
Jazz won by 20. Won $190.
No surprise (for me anyway).
Phoenix (+8.5) over Portland. I think Phoenix will keep it close.
Trailblazers won by 23. Lost $100.
Bummer of a loss for Phoenix who got off to a poor defensive start and then got destroyed in the third quarter.
Totals: Bets: $700. Winnings: $760. NET: +$60. Record: 4-3.
March Totals: NET: +$73. Record: 63-54-3.
Any day that's a positive is a good day.
I didn't have time to do picks yesterday, but I think I would have gone 1-3 or 2-2 (if I was lucky), so it's ok by me that I didn't get to it.
Big one today, 12 games.
The Games 4/1 Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted
Charlotte (-4.5) over Detroit. Detroit is fresh off a very good win over Atlanta. They then have to travel and play a desperate team. They aren't consistent enough for my liking.
Philadelphia (+10.0) over Washington. I guess I just don't trust Washington to win by as much as they should.
San Antonio (-9.5) over Orlando. Seems like a lot of points but I'll take the Spurs to do what they need to.
New York (+10.0) over Brooklyn. Ugh, I can't imagine this game is going to be very high quality. I continue to not believe in the Nets, but 10 points is a lot for a team I don't particularly care for.
Boston (-3.0) over Indiana. Boston is playing at a high level right now and Indiana is on a traveling back-to-back.
Chicago (-5.0) over Milwaukee. The Bulls are better than the Bucks and I don't think Chicago is going to sit secure in their playoff position.
Dallas (+2.5) over Oklahoma City. Westbrook continues on his MVP campaign but Dallas needs to keep pace to maintain their playoff position.
Houston (-11.5) over Sacramento. I'm going gut on this one. It's a lot of points and I don't really have a lot of confidence in the pick, but I'm going with it anyway.
Minnesota (+9.5) over Toronto. I picked the Wolves the last time these two played and it worked out. I think a similar thing this time. The Raptors aren't playing as well as they should and Wiggins will want to do well.
Utah (-4.0) over Denver. Going with the "hard to beat a team twice in a week".
Portland (-3.0) over LA Clippers. Clippers have to travel up the coast after playing yesterday.
New Orleans (-8.0) over LA Lakers. The Pelicans should dominate, though I have to wonder if this is a random Lakers competence possibility.
Happy April Fools day everyone. I think it's dumb but others don't apparently. Don't do or say anything stupid.
Traditionalists use statistics to belabor their point as much as analysts (shorthand it to that for ease), they just use different (and simpler) statistics. Things like Shots on Goal and Hits are held up as the true measures of the sport against Corsi and Fenwick. Another difference is the emphasis. Traditionalists tend to argue in favor of immeasurable stats like "grit" and "leadership" whereas the analysts look at how they play. Just by reading that last sentence, you might be tempted to just accept that the analysts have the right of it. Players should be judged based on what thy actually produce. There will always be resistance. Moneyball is a great example of the integration of advanced stats into baseball, but the Athletics haven't won a World Series (the Red Sox have, using similar emphasis).
This year, a team that can be used to argue against analytics would be my Calgary Flames. They are currently sitting in a playoff position and are in good shape to stay there. The thing is, the Flames have terrible advanced stats. There's no measurable reason for them to do as well as they are, besides, of course, the goals for and against each game. So the traditionalists can point to the Flames and laugh and say "didn't see that coming, did you?" Funny story, though, the Flames are also one of those teams that traditionalists and analysts agreed would be terrible. The ambiguity of some traditional measures (ie grit) is the only reason it's not as easy to make fun of tradition for missing the Flames.
So really, everyone's in the same boat. Except that advanced stats are better
(*Side note: Blocked shots are a great example of a stat that divides analytics and traditionalists. The Traditionalists say "how great! He sacrifices his body to prevent a goal scoring opportunity." The Analytics say "good job, but a really good player would prevent a goal scoring opportunity by getting the puck into the offensive zone")
Results 3/31
Boston (+3.5) over Charlotte. Boston is much more consistent than Charlotte. Charlotte is better than Boston but we'll see.
Celtics won by 12. Won $190.
Boston is playing so well. Charlotte is not. The Hornets needed this win but Boston's rolling.
Philadelphia (-4.5) over LA Lakers. At this point, the 76ers are much better than the Lakers.
Lakers won by 2 (OT). Lost $100.
This was surprising to me. But the Lakers have games where they're very competitive. To be fair, it is the 76ers (who are actively tanking), but still.
Houston (+1.5) over Toronto. Still don't trust the Raptors.
Raptors won by 3. Lost $100.
It was decently close all game but the Raptors came back continuously. Maybe this is the spark Toronto needs, still playing without Lowry.
Atlanta (-8.5) over Milwaukee. Atlanta should dominate. They may not, but that's a risk I'm willing to take.
Hawks won by 13. Won $190.
Good win over a team the Hawks should beat. It was good.
Memphis (-10.0) over Sacramento. Sacramento kind of stinks and Memphis is great.
Grizzlies won by 14. Won $190.
Solid win by the Grizzlies. Sacramento continues to experiment.
Utah (-7.0) over Minnesota. Utah is pretty good at defense and the Wolves stink at offense. The non-tanking continues.
Jazz won by 20. Won $190.
No surprise (for me anyway).
Phoenix (+8.5) over Portland. I think Phoenix will keep it close.
Trailblazers won by 23. Lost $100.
Bummer of a loss for Phoenix who got off to a poor defensive start and then got destroyed in the third quarter.
Totals: Bets: $700. Winnings: $760. NET: +$60. Record: 4-3.
March Totals: NET: +$73. Record: 63-54-3.
Any day that's a positive is a good day.
I didn't have time to do picks yesterday, but I think I would have gone 1-3 or 2-2 (if I was lucky), so it's ok by me that I didn't get to it.
Big one today, 12 games.
The Games 4/1 Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted
Charlotte (-4.5) over Detroit. Detroit is fresh off a very good win over Atlanta. They then have to travel and play a desperate team. They aren't consistent enough for my liking.
Philadelphia (+10.0) over Washington. I guess I just don't trust Washington to win by as much as they should.
San Antonio (-9.5) over Orlando. Seems like a lot of points but I'll take the Spurs to do what they need to.
New York (+10.0) over Brooklyn. Ugh, I can't imagine this game is going to be very high quality. I continue to not believe in the Nets, but 10 points is a lot for a team I don't particularly care for.
Boston (-3.0) over Indiana. Boston is playing at a high level right now and Indiana is on a traveling back-to-back.
Chicago (-5.0) over Milwaukee. The Bulls are better than the Bucks and I don't think Chicago is going to sit secure in their playoff position.
Dallas (+2.5) over Oklahoma City. Westbrook continues on his MVP campaign but Dallas needs to keep pace to maintain their playoff position.
Houston (-11.5) over Sacramento. I'm going gut on this one. It's a lot of points and I don't really have a lot of confidence in the pick, but I'm going with it anyway.
Minnesota (+9.5) over Toronto. I picked the Wolves the last time these two played and it worked out. I think a similar thing this time. The Raptors aren't playing as well as they should and Wiggins will want to do well.
Utah (-4.0) over Denver. Going with the "hard to beat a team twice in a week".
Portland (-3.0) over LA Clippers. Clippers have to travel up the coast after playing yesterday.
New Orleans (-8.0) over LA Lakers. The Pelicans should dominate, though I have to wonder if this is a random Lakers competence possibility.
Happy April Fools day everyone. I think it's dumb but others don't apparently. Don't do or say anything stupid.
Monday, 30 March 2015
[Blank]. Picks 3/30
Usually when I don't write anything clever/interesting it's because I'm lazy. I've been sitting here for five minutes and I can't think of anything. Nothing. I'm feeling unwell but I don't want to write about that. That's uninteresting.
Here's my results from last week
Results 3/27
Washington (-4.0) over Charlotte. Really no reason. Two teams I don't trust at the moment.
Wizards won by 3. Lost $100.
Stupid Wizards, it's all their fault. So close but no cigar. A win both teams needed. But only one can get it. In the meantime, I lost and that's all I cared about.
Detroit (-2.0) over Orlando. Orlando kind of stinks. And Detroit... doesn't? I'm betting that Detroit is better.
Pistons won by 14. Won $190.
Good win by the Pistons. Granted, they should beat Orlando, but teams don't always beat the teams they should.
Philadelphia (+12.5) over LA Clippers. Another "I think the 76ers will not lose by that much". We'll see.
Clippers won by 21. Lost $100.
A little ambitious of a pick perhaps. I've made worse ones before.
New York (+10.0) over Boston. Picking New York...? I dunno. 10 is a lot for a team that really doesn't have that great of roster.
Celtics won by 4. Won $190.
It was a close game. Good for the Knicks. Boston should have won by more, but it's not how, it's how many. And a win's a win. And cliches
Cleveland (-9.0) over Brooklyn. Cleveland still needs to build for the playoffs. I don't think they're quite there yet.
Nets won by 8. Lost $100.
An inspired performance by Brooklyn.
LA Lakers (+8.5) over Toronto. I'm picking the Lakers out of protest. Toronto needs to pull it together before it's too late.
Raptors won by 11. Lost $100.
The Raptors needed this. And of course, it's the one time in a while that I pick against them. That's what you get for not believing.
Miami (+9.0) over Atlanta. This makes me nervous because I don't like picking against Atlanta, but they've been struggling recently. What up with that?
Hawks won by 13. Lost $100.
Well, guess you can't win them all.
Golden State (-3.5) over Memphis. This is a great matchup. Number one vs number two. I think Golden State can win by 4 or more.
Warriors won by 23. Won $190.
They did win by more than 4. I was right (for once).
Houston (-13.5) over Minnesota. The Wolves are "not tanking", and I tend to believe that, kind of. I just think all their nagging injuries are kind of convenient.
Rockets won by 10. Lost $100.
Huh. Usually picking against the Wolves works.
New Orleans (-6.5) over Sacramento. The Pelicans are in trouble in terms of playoffs. They need this game.
Pelicans won by 14. Won $190.
Good solid win. The Pelicans are building something, we'll see if they can see it through.
San Antonio (-9.5) over Dallas. This is a crazy spread but it's hard to beat a team twice in a week, especially when that team is the Spurs.
Spurs won by 18. Won $190.
It's tough to beat a team twice in a week. The Spurs are not the powerhouse they usually are but they will be a hard out in the playoffs
Utah (+2.5) over Denver. Two high altitude team. Utah is a little better right now, but not by much.
Nuggets won by 16. Lost $100.
I can't figure out the Nuggets right now. Are they good? Are they not? Why so much better now than they used to be?
Portland (+1.0) over Phoenix. Taking the playoff team here.
Trailblazers won by 6. Won $190.
It worked!
Totals: Bets: $1300. Winnings: $1140. NET: -$160. Record: 6-7
March Totals: NET: +$13. Record: 59-51-3.
I did much better than I thought I was going to. Also, to date in the month, I've bet $11,300 and made a profit of $13. Hardly seems worth it, eh?
Seven games on tap today.
The Games 3/30 Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted
Boston (+3.5) over Charlotte. Boston is much more consistent than Charlotte. Charlotte is better than Boston but we'll see.
Philadelphia (-4.5) over LA Lakers. At this point, the 76ers are much better than the Lakers.
Houston (+1.5) over Toronto. Still don't trust the Raptors
Atlanta (-8.5) over Milwaukee. Atlanta should dominate. They may not, but that's a risk I'm willing to take.
Memphis (-10.0) over Sacramento. Sacramento kind of stinks and Memphis is great
Utah (-7.0) over Minnesota. Utah is pretty good at defense and the Wolves stink at offense. The non-tanking continues.
Phoenix (+8.5) over Portland. I think Phoenix will keep it close.
Here's my results from last week
Results 3/27
Washington (-4.0) over Charlotte. Really no reason. Two teams I don't trust at the moment.
Wizards won by 3. Lost $100.
Stupid Wizards, it's all their fault. So close but no cigar. A win both teams needed. But only one can get it. In the meantime, I lost and that's all I cared about.
Detroit (-2.0) over Orlando. Orlando kind of stinks. And Detroit... doesn't? I'm betting that Detroit is better.
Pistons won by 14. Won $190.
Good win by the Pistons. Granted, they should beat Orlando, but teams don't always beat the teams they should.
Philadelphia (+12.5) over LA Clippers. Another "I think the 76ers will not lose by that much". We'll see.
Clippers won by 21. Lost $100.
A little ambitious of a pick perhaps. I've made worse ones before.
New York (+10.0) over Boston. Picking New York...? I dunno. 10 is a lot for a team that really doesn't have that great of roster.
Celtics won by 4. Won $190.
It was a close game. Good for the Knicks. Boston should have won by more, but it's not how, it's how many. And a win's a win. And cliches
Cleveland (-9.0) over Brooklyn. Cleveland still needs to build for the playoffs. I don't think they're quite there yet.
Nets won by 8. Lost $100.
An inspired performance by Brooklyn.
LA Lakers (+8.5) over Toronto. I'm picking the Lakers out of protest. Toronto needs to pull it together before it's too late.
Raptors won by 11. Lost $100.
The Raptors needed this. And of course, it's the one time in a while that I pick against them. That's what you get for not believing.
Miami (+9.0) over Atlanta. This makes me nervous because I don't like picking against Atlanta, but they've been struggling recently. What up with that?
Hawks won by 13. Lost $100.
Well, guess you can't win them all.
Golden State (-3.5) over Memphis. This is a great matchup. Number one vs number two. I think Golden State can win by 4 or more.
Warriors won by 23. Won $190.
They did win by more than 4. I was right (for once).
Houston (-13.5) over Minnesota. The Wolves are "not tanking", and I tend to believe that, kind of. I just think all their nagging injuries are kind of convenient.
Rockets won by 10. Lost $100.
Huh. Usually picking against the Wolves works.
New Orleans (-6.5) over Sacramento. The Pelicans are in trouble in terms of playoffs. They need this game.
Pelicans won by 14. Won $190.
Good solid win. The Pelicans are building something, we'll see if they can see it through.
San Antonio (-9.5) over Dallas. This is a crazy spread but it's hard to beat a team twice in a week, especially when that team is the Spurs.
Spurs won by 18. Won $190.
It's tough to beat a team twice in a week. The Spurs are not the powerhouse they usually are but they will be a hard out in the playoffs
Utah (+2.5) over Denver. Two high altitude team. Utah is a little better right now, but not by much.
Nuggets won by 16. Lost $100.
I can't figure out the Nuggets right now. Are they good? Are they not? Why so much better now than they used to be?
Portland (+1.0) over Phoenix. Taking the playoff team here.
Trailblazers won by 6. Won $190.
It worked!
Totals: Bets: $1300. Winnings: $1140. NET: -$160. Record: 6-7
March Totals: NET: +$13. Record: 59-51-3.
I did much better than I thought I was going to. Also, to date in the month, I've bet $11,300 and made a profit of $13. Hardly seems worth it, eh?
Seven games on tap today.
The Games 3/30 Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted
Boston (+3.5) over Charlotte. Boston is much more consistent than Charlotte. Charlotte is better than Boston but we'll see.
Philadelphia (-4.5) over LA Lakers. At this point, the 76ers are much better than the Lakers.
Houston (+1.5) over Toronto. Still don't trust the Raptors
Atlanta (-8.5) over Milwaukee. Atlanta should dominate. They may not, but that's a risk I'm willing to take.
Memphis (-10.0) over Sacramento. Sacramento kind of stinks and Memphis is great
Utah (-7.0) over Minnesota. Utah is pretty good at defense and the Wolves stink at offense. The non-tanking continues.
Phoenix (+8.5) over Portland. I think Phoenix will keep it close.
Friday, 27 March 2015
Pressure. Picks 3/27
I didn't post yesterday. The reason is somewhat, if not exceptionally, interesting. I had two job interviews. One for a job I want, one not so much. I received an offer for one but not one yet for the other. Today I have some wisdom to share with you, and it was reiterated to me today.
If you reach a point in a conversation where you feel the need to say "no pressure", you're probably pressuring them and you know it.
Anyway, that's my spiel. I missed the day before because I forgot. Whoops.
Results 3/24
Toronto (-2.5) over Detroit. This is getting silly. The Raptors need to beat Detroit by more than 3.
Pistons won by 4. Lost $100.
Seriously, Raptors? This is getting extremely concerning. I don't know what's going on with them.
Oklahoma City (-10.0) over LA Lakers. The Lakers have had games where they're weirdly competitive, I don't think this is it.
Thunder won by 10 (PUSH). Won $100.
A push, decent win by the Thunder as they continue to push for the playoffs. The Lakers are hoping to move up in the lottery.
Miami (-1.5) over Milwaukee. Odds: 1.95. Hmmm, I trust Miami over Milwaukee... but still....
Bucks won by 1. Lost $100.
The Bucks surprise me, I didn't think they'd take it. They sure showed me.
San Antonio (-3.0) over Dallas. Just picking the hotter team in this one. Nothing more than that.
Mavericks won by 7. Lost $100.
Can't get a read on the Spurs. They'll be fine come playoff time but they're kind of a bad bet right now.
Philadelphia (+8.5) over Sacramento. I love picking Philly to lose by less than they should. Don't know why.
Kings won by 1. Won $190.
This is an extended training camp for the Kings. They've talked about this end-of-season being an evaluation of talent time and I agree. I think they'll be much stronger next year.
Golden State (-7.0) over Portland. Portland is not playing super great, not poorly, but not fantastic. Gimme the Warriors.
Warriors won by 14. Won $190.
It's nothing against all the good teams out there, but I feel like any of the spreads are "will the Warriors win?" I don't have any numbers, but I doubt they've had many close games this season.
Totals: Bets: $600. Winnings: $480. NET: -$120. Records: 2-3-1
March Totals: NET: +$173. Record: 53-44-3.
Still ahead. Unfortunate to not have OKC get another point but what can you do?
13 games today. Big one.
The Games 3/27 Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted
Washington (-4.0) over Charlotte. Really no reason. Two teams I don't trust at the moment.
Detroit (-2.0) over Orlando. Orlando kind of stinks. And Detroit... doesn't? I'm betting that Detroit is better.
Philadelphia (+12.5) over LA Clippers. Another "I think the 76ers will not lose by that much". We'll see.
New York (+10.0) over Boston. Picking New York...? I dunno. 10 is a lot for a team that really doesn't have that great of roster.
Cleveland (-9.0) over Brooklyn. Cleveland still needs to build for the playoffs. I don't think they're quite there yet.
LA Lakers (+8.5) over Toronto. I'm picking the Lakers out of protest. Toronto needs to pull it together before it's too late.
Miami (+9.0) over Atlanta. This makes me nervous because I don't like picking against Atlanta, but they've been struggling recently. What up with that?
Golden State (-3.5) over Memphis. This is a great matchup. Number one vs number two. I think Golden State can win by 4 or more.
Houston (-13.5) over Minnesota. The Wolves are "not tanking", and I tend to believe that, kind of. I just think all their nagging injuries are kind of convenient.
New Orleans (-6.5) over Sacramento. The Pelicans are in trouble in terms of playoffs. They need this game.
San Antonio (-9.5) over Dallas. This is a crazy spread but it's hard to beat a team twice in a week, especially when that team is the Spurs.
Utah (+2.5) over Denver. Two high altitude team. Utah is a little better right now, but not by much.
Portland (+1.0) over Phoenix. Taking the playoff team here.
I also started watching How I Met Your Mother. So that's fun.
If you reach a point in a conversation where you feel the need to say "no pressure", you're probably pressuring them and you know it.
Anyway, that's my spiel. I missed the day before because I forgot. Whoops.
Results 3/24
Toronto (-2.5) over Detroit. This is getting silly. The Raptors need to beat Detroit by more than 3.
Pistons won by 4. Lost $100.
Seriously, Raptors? This is getting extremely concerning. I don't know what's going on with them.
Oklahoma City (-10.0) over LA Lakers. The Lakers have had games where they're weirdly competitive, I don't think this is it.
Thunder won by 10 (PUSH). Won $100.
A push, decent win by the Thunder as they continue to push for the playoffs. The Lakers are hoping to move up in the lottery.
Miami (-1.5) over Milwaukee. Odds: 1.95. Hmmm, I trust Miami over Milwaukee... but still....
Bucks won by 1. Lost $100.
The Bucks surprise me, I didn't think they'd take it. They sure showed me.
San Antonio (-3.0) over Dallas. Just picking the hotter team in this one. Nothing more than that.
Mavericks won by 7. Lost $100.
Can't get a read on the Spurs. They'll be fine come playoff time but they're kind of a bad bet right now.
Philadelphia (+8.5) over Sacramento. I love picking Philly to lose by less than they should. Don't know why.
Kings won by 1. Won $190.
This is an extended training camp for the Kings. They've talked about this end-of-season being an evaluation of talent time and I agree. I think they'll be much stronger next year.
Golden State (-7.0) over Portland. Portland is not playing super great, not poorly, but not fantastic. Gimme the Warriors.
Warriors won by 14. Won $190.
It's nothing against all the good teams out there, but I feel like any of the spreads are "will the Warriors win?" I don't have any numbers, but I doubt they've had many close games this season.
Totals: Bets: $600. Winnings: $480. NET: -$120. Records: 2-3-1
March Totals: NET: +$173. Record: 53-44-3.
Still ahead. Unfortunate to not have OKC get another point but what can you do?
13 games today. Big one.
The Games 3/27 Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted
Washington (-4.0) over Charlotte. Really no reason. Two teams I don't trust at the moment.
Detroit (-2.0) over Orlando. Orlando kind of stinks. And Detroit... doesn't? I'm betting that Detroit is better.
Philadelphia (+12.5) over LA Clippers. Another "I think the 76ers will not lose by that much". We'll see.
New York (+10.0) over Boston. Picking New York...? I dunno. 10 is a lot for a team that really doesn't have that great of roster.
Cleveland (-9.0) over Brooklyn. Cleveland still needs to build for the playoffs. I don't think they're quite there yet.
LA Lakers (+8.5) over Toronto. I'm picking the Lakers out of protest. Toronto needs to pull it together before it's too late.
Miami (+9.0) over Atlanta. This makes me nervous because I don't like picking against Atlanta, but they've been struggling recently. What up with that?
Golden State (-3.5) over Memphis. This is a great matchup. Number one vs number two. I think Golden State can win by 4 or more.
Houston (-13.5) over Minnesota. The Wolves are "not tanking", and I tend to believe that, kind of. I just think all their nagging injuries are kind of convenient.
New Orleans (-6.5) over Sacramento. The Pelicans are in trouble in terms of playoffs. They need this game.
San Antonio (-9.5) over Dallas. This is a crazy spread but it's hard to beat a team twice in a week, especially when that team is the Spurs.
Utah (+2.5) over Denver. Two high altitude team. Utah is a little better right now, but not by much.
Portland (+1.0) over Phoenix. Taking the playoff team here.
I also started watching How I Met Your Mother. So that's fun.
Tuesday, 24 March 2015
For Shame. Picks 3/24
I feel bad for you guys. I've been lazy when it comes to these top posts. I'm going to say it's because I received no responses to my question I posted yesterday. So it's your fault (it's really not).
Results 3/23
Houston (+1.0) over Indiana. Interesting that Indiana is favored in this game. Maybe Harden is hurt or something. I don't know. I like Houston.
Rockets won by 10. Won $190.
Harden went for 44. His game is unwatchable because of the sheer magnitude of free throws but it is effective when it comes to scoring. I don't think he wins MVP but he definitely deserves to be in the running
Boston (+5.0) over Brooklyn. I would've picked Boston even if they were the favorite. I don't know why, maybe that's just my anti-Brooklyn bias that I've developed over the course of this thing.
Celtics won by 19. Won $190.
Boston is going to get into the playoffs and that might set their rebuild back. OR they make the playoffs, still don't have to pay anybody, make splashes in free agency, and give Brad Stevens actual good players to coach. Man, Brad Stevens is awesome.
Memphis (-13.5) over New York. It's always a good idea to bet against New York.
Grizzlies won by 21. Won $190.
This was actually kind of dangerous, Memphis doesn't usually blow teams out, but New York's New York and that's what happens.
Chicago (-6.5) over Charlotte. Odds: 1.86. This is a gut pick. Charlotte played yesterday, yes, but they could easily win this straight up. It's an uncomfortable pick.
Bulls won by 12. Won $186.
Charlotte does not look good. Chicago looks fine. We'll see how the playoffs go for the Bulls. We'll see if playoffs happen for Charlotte.
Utah (-10.5) over Minnesota. Utah is playing well, Minnesota is not. That, coupled with the injuries causing a fairly large talent gap, means that Utah should kill.
Wolves won by 2 (OT). Lost $100.
This was surprising. The Jazz were missing two of their best players. But the Wolves only played with seven all game. So toss-up there. Poor loss for the Jazz but it's not like they're competing for the playoffs.
Golden State (-11.0) over Washington. Odds: 1.95. The Wizards are doing well recently but going out to Oakland, I like the Warriors.
Warriors won by 31. Won $195.
This was a close game at halftime. Then the Wizards scored 8 in the third, and the Warriors scored 21. That'll kill ya.
Results: Bets: $600. Winnings: $951. NET: +$351. Record: 5-1.
March Totals: NET: +$293. Record: 51-41-2
Great day. Ended up giving myself a decent cushion. I hope it sticks.
Six games today.
The Games 3/24 Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted.
Toronto (-2.5) over Detroit. This is getting silly. The Raptors need to beat Detroit by more than 3.
Oklahoma City (-10.0) over LA Lakers. The Lakers have had games where they're weirdly competitive, I don't think this is it.
Miami (-1.5) over Milwaukee. Odds: 1.95. Hmmm, I trust Miami over Milwaukee... but still....
San Antonio (-3.0) over Dallas. Just picking the hotter team in this one. Nothing more than that.
Philadelphia (+8.5) over Sacramento. I love picking Philly to lose by less than they should. Don't know why.
Golden State (-7.0) over Portland. Portland is not playing super great, not poorly, but not fantastic. Gimme the Warriors.
Lots of favorites today.
Monday, 23 March 2015
Opinions? Picks 3/23
So, thoughts?
Results 3/21
Philadelphia (-6.0) over New York. Back to back after an overtime game will spell the end for New York. That and they aren't very good.
76ers won by16. Won $190.
Yeah, the Knicks stink and the Sixers are competitive. They're building something in Philly, which is unfortunate that this management group might be rewarded for their tanking.
Orlando (+7.5) over Portland. I think Portland wins but I also think it's closer than it should be.
Magic won by 7. Won $190.
I didn't expect Orlando to actually win, bad loss for Portland.
Denver (+8.0) over Miami. I don't know if I like Denver in this game but this seems like the type of game they would win or at least be very competitive.
Heat won by 17. Lost $100.
Meh, unfortunate but I'm not surprised necessarily.
Cleveland (-9.5) over Indiana. Boy, I don't like this, but I think the Cavs go off in this.
Cavaliers won by 3. Lost $100.
I guess I could've seen this coming, Indiana tends to keep it close. I guess the Cavs will take it but I didn't care for it.
Milwaukee (+2.0) over Brooklyn. Will Milwaukee start to play well again? Who knows, hopefully, though.
Nets won by 2 (3OT) (PUSH). Won $100
At least it wasn't a loss, I suppose. Triple overtime is brutal, though.
Atlanta (+1.5) over Oklahoma City. Atlanta is actually an underdog in this game. As good as OKC is playing, I'll take the Hawks.
Thunder won by 8. Lost $100.
I have to say I was surprised by this. Atlanta was in pretty good shape halfway into the fourth and they lost by 8. Probably just ran out of gas.
Toronto (+2.0) over Chicago. Toronto needs to play better, and this would be a good game to start.
Bulls won by 16. Lost $100.
I don't know what's going on with this Raptors team. I guess Lowry is out but still, they need to pick it up a bit.
Boston (+9.0) over San Antonio. Another one where I think Spurs win but Boston keeps it close.
Spurs won by 12. Lost $100.
This is a bad streak for me. Close to the spread but close doesn't really count for anything.
Memphis (+3.5) over Dallas. I think Memphis bigs are too tough for Dallas.
Grizzlies won by 11. Won $190.
Memphis is apparently the 2 seed in the West. I had no idea. It would be in their best interest to maintain their standing.
Charlotte (-4.0) over Sacramento. I don't trust either team, but I imagine Charlotte has the decided advantage.
Kings won by 10. Lost $100.
Good win for the Kings, bad loss for the Hornets who are trying to stay in th playoff race in the East.
Golden State (-13.5) over New Orleans. New Orleans played yesterday, are likely without Davis again, and Golden State is dynamite.
Warriors won by 16. Won $190.
Dominating performance, again. Davis was out, but so was Thompson. I think that, as good as Thompson is, Davis means more to his team.
LA Clippers (-7.0) over Washington. LA is better and at home. I still don't trust Washington.
Clippers won by 14. Won $190.
LA is still trying to reintegrate Griffin into their lineup. I think they're well on their way.
Totals: Bets: $1200. Winnings: $1050. NET: -$150. Record: 5-6-1
March Totals: NET: -$58. 46-40-2.
Back into the negatives *sigh*. Still 6 games over .500 on record though, for what it's worth.
Six games tonight. 7 days left in the month.
The Games 3/23 Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted
Houston (+1.0) over Indiana. Interesting that Indiana is favored in this game. Maybe Harden is hurt or something. I don't know. I like Houston.
Boston (+5.0) over Brooklyn. I would've picked Boston even if they were the favorite. I don't know why, maybe that's just my anti-Brooklyn bias that I've developed over the course of this thing.
Memphis (-13.5) over New York. It's always a good idea to bet against New York.
Chicago (-6.5) over Charlotte. Odds: 1.86. This is a gut pick. Charlotte played yesterday, yes, but they could easily win this straight up. It's an uncomfortable pick.
Utah (-10.5) over Minnesota. Utah is playing well, Minnesota is not. That, coupled with the injuries causing a fairly large talent gap, means that Utah should kill.
Golden State (-11.0) over Washington. Odds: 1.95. The Wizards are doing well recently but going out to Oakland, I like the Warriors.
Friday, 20 March 2015
Short as Can Be. Picks 3/20
Due to some scheduled events, this blog is going to be quite short. Sorry.
Games from yesterday.
Results 3/19
Minnesota (+1.0 ) Over New York. In the battle of tankers, the Wolves don't suck enough.
Timberwolves won by 3 (OT). Won $190.
This game was ugly and then went to overtime. Ugh.
Houston (-7.0) over Denver. Picking against Denver is so dangerous. They're not at home, though, and Houston is better?
Rockets won by 10. Won $190.
Harden went off for 50. That's pretty tough to recover from
New Orleans (-1.5) over Phoenix. Nether team is very consistent. Pbth who knows.
Suns won by 2. Lost $100.
Close game between two inconsistent teams. Anthony Davis didn't play and I wish I'd known that before making the pick.
Utah (-4.5) over LA Lakers. I certainly trust Utah more than LA.
Jazz won by 7. Won $190.
A lot closer than I thought it would be but the Jazz did enough to make me happy. Because it's all about me.
Totals: Bets: $400. Winnings: $570. NET: +$170. Record: 3-1.
March Totals: NET: +$92. 41-34-1.
In the positives again. With an excellent opportunity to build up some credit. 12 games tonight.
Quick Hits.
The Games 3/20 Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted.
Philadelphia (-6.0) over New York. Back to back after an overtime game will spell the end for New York. That and they aren't very good.
Orlando (+7.5) over Portland. I think Portland wins but I also think it's closer than it should be.
Denver (+8.0) over Miami. I don't know if I like Denver in this game but this seems like the type of game they would win or at least be very competitive.
Cleveland (-9.5) over Indiana. Boy, I don't like this, but I think the Cavs go off in this.
Milwaukee (+2.0) over Brooklyn. Will Milwaukee start to play well again? Who knows, hopefully, though.
Atlanta (+1.5) over Oklahoma City. Atlanta is actually an underdog in this game. As good as OKC is playing, I'll take the Hawks.
Toronto (+2.0) over Chicago.Toronto needs to play better, and this would be a good game to start.
Boston (+9.0) over San Antonio. Another one where I think Spurs win but Boston keeps it close.
Memphis (+3.5) over Dallas. I think Memphis bigs are too tough for Dallas.
Charlotte (-4.0) over Sacramento. I don't trust either team, but I imagine Charlotte has the decided advantage.
Golden State (-13.5) over New Orleans. New Orleans played yesterday, are likely without Davis again, and Golden State is dynamite.
LA Clippers (-7.0) over Washington. LA is better and at home. I still don't trust Washington.
Quick and easy. I had some schedule stuff that made this shorter than usual.
Games from yesterday.
Results 3/19
Minnesota (+1.0 ) Over New York. In the battle of tankers, the Wolves don't suck enough.
Timberwolves won by 3 (OT). Won $190.
This game was ugly and then went to overtime. Ugh.
Houston (-7.0) over Denver. Picking against Denver is so dangerous. They're not at home, though, and Houston is better?
Rockets won by 10. Won $190.
Harden went off for 50. That's pretty tough to recover from
New Orleans (-1.5) over Phoenix. Nether team is very consistent. Pbth who knows.
Suns won by 2. Lost $100.
Close game between two inconsistent teams. Anthony Davis didn't play and I wish I'd known that before making the pick.
Utah (-4.5) over LA Lakers. I certainly trust Utah more than LA.
Jazz won by 7. Won $190.
A lot closer than I thought it would be but the Jazz did enough to make me happy. Because it's all about me.
Totals: Bets: $400. Winnings: $570. NET: +$170. Record: 3-1.
March Totals: NET: +$92. 41-34-1.
In the positives again. With an excellent opportunity to build up some credit. 12 games tonight.
Quick Hits.
The Games 3/20 Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted.
Philadelphia (-6.0) over New York. Back to back after an overtime game will spell the end for New York. That and they aren't very good.
Orlando (+7.5) over Portland. I think Portland wins but I also think it's closer than it should be.
Denver (+8.0) over Miami. I don't know if I like Denver in this game but this seems like the type of game they would win or at least be very competitive.
Cleveland (-9.5) over Indiana. Boy, I don't like this, but I think the Cavs go off in this.
Milwaukee (+2.0) over Brooklyn. Will Milwaukee start to play well again? Who knows, hopefully, though.
Atlanta (+1.5) over Oklahoma City. Atlanta is actually an underdog in this game. As good as OKC is playing, I'll take the Hawks.
Toronto (+2.0) over Chicago.Toronto needs to play better, and this would be a good game to start.
Boston (+9.0) over San Antonio. Another one where I think Spurs win but Boston keeps it close.
Memphis (+3.5) over Dallas. I think Memphis bigs are too tough for Dallas.
Charlotte (-4.0) over Sacramento. I don't trust either team, but I imagine Charlotte has the decided advantage.
Golden State (-13.5) over New Orleans. New Orleans played yesterday, are likely without Davis again, and Golden State is dynamite.
LA Clippers (-7.0) over Washington. LA is better and at home. I still don't trust Washington.
Quick and easy. I had some schedule stuff that made this shorter than usual.
Thursday, 19 March 2015
Meh. Picks 3/19
I can't think of anything to write about to make the beginning of this interesting. So this is what you get.
Results 3/18
Brooklyn (+11.5) over Cleveland. These two teams don't care for each other (or is it just Brooklyn not liking Lebron...?). This game could go either way. I actually think that Cleveland will roll but I'm just afraid enough of Brooklyn's inconsistency to try to sound like a genius when they keep it close-ish.
Cavaliers won by 25. Lost $100.
Welp. Got that one wrong. It was close for a quarter and a half. And that's about it.
Philadelphia (+2.0) over Detroit. Am I crazy for picking a Philly? Probably, but here's my reasoning: Detroit has stunk until yesterday, they had to travel, Philly has been competitive. And that's it. Go Sixers!
76ers won by 11. Won $190.
Detroit continues to play poorly. Philly continues to be competitive. That' the way it's going right now.
Minnesota (+11.5) over Toronto. I think Minnesota keeps it close because Wiggins wants to win in Canada and the team wants Wiggins to win in Canada. Toronto is a much better team than the Wolves but that hasn't stopped the Raptors from playing disturbingly bad before.
Raptors won by 5. Won $190.
Much closer than it should have been. The Wolves are banged up, have 14 wins, and are on the road. If there's such thing as a poor win, this might have been one.
Portland (-2.5) over Miami. I'm calling the Heat win over Cleveland more of an aberration than a trend. This is a game that Portland needs to win (to be fair, same goes for Miami), and Portland is better.
Heat won by 4. Lost $100.
I watched this game. Classic Wade game. And it was delightful.
Boston (+7.0) over Oklahoma City. Everything tells me that OKC should dominate EXCEPT that nobody dominates the Celtics.
Thunder won by 4. Won $190.
Good win for the Thunder. Good for the Celtics (for me) for keeping it close
Chicago (-1.0) over Indiana. Indiana is weirdly competent and their coach really should be up for Coach of the Year (except that that's not how it works), but Chicago is better and should win.
Bulls won by 17. Won $190.
This was close until about 7 minutes left in the game. Then, in just a few possessions, it was double digits.
Dallas (-12.5) over Orlando. Magic played last night and Dallas is on the up and up. I like them to smoke Orlando.
Mavericks won by 5. Lost $100.
I guess the Mavs are still on the up and up. The should've won by more from a pure talent perspective.
San Antonio (-6.0) over Milwaukee. Odds 1.86. Both teams played last night but Milwaukee didn't get blasted in the media by their coach. Watch for the Spurs to come out with some fire.
Spurs won by 11. Won $190.
This was not looking good for me up until near the end. Though, the Spurs were mostly in control, how much in control was a question.
LA Clippers (-8.0) over Sacramento. Don't like this one but the Clippers are at least 8 points better than the Kings, even on a back-to-back.
Clippers won by 11. Won $190.
This one went down to the wire. Clippers had an 8 point lead with the ball with 23 seconds left. The result was a Turkoglu 3 and they won by 11. One of the only times I'll cheer for the Clippers.
Atlanta (+6.5) over Golden State. This is a standings pick. Golden State is fairly secure and are looking forward to the playoffs, I believe, and are missing Klay Thompson. Atlanta needs to keep winning.
Warriors won by 19. Lost $100.
Powerful win by the Warriors. They came to play. Both teams are pretty secure in their standing as it turns out. Atlanta is ahead of second seed Cleveland by 10 games and Golden State is up on second seed Memphis by 7.5.
Washington (+3.5) over Utah. I'm still holding to the "Utah is not that good" opinion, though my grip is getting weaker and weaker.
Wizards won by 4. Won $190.
Utah's defensive efficiency since the All-Star Break has been incredible. Their offense failed them in this one, though.
Results: Bets: $1100. Winnings: $1330. NET: +$230. Record: 7-4.
March Totals: NET: -$78. Record: 38-33-1
It doesn't take long to turn your fortunes around. Still in the hole but pretty close.
Four games tonight.
The Games 3/19 Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted.
Minnesota (+1.0 ) Over New York. In the battle of tankers, the Wolves don't suck enough.
Houston (-7.0) over Denver. Picking against Denver is so dangerous. They're not at home, though, and Houston is better?
New Orleans (-1.5) over Phoenix. Nether team is very consistent. Pbth who knows.
Utah (-4.5) over LA Lakers. I certainly trust Utah more than LA.
Results 3/18
Brooklyn (+11.5) over Cleveland. These two teams don't care for each other (or is it just Brooklyn not liking Lebron...?). This game could go either way. I actually think that Cleveland will roll but I'm just afraid enough of Brooklyn's inconsistency to try to sound like a genius when they keep it close-ish.
Cavaliers won by 25. Lost $100.
Welp. Got that one wrong. It was close for a quarter and a half. And that's about it.
Philadelphia (+2.0) over Detroit. Am I crazy for picking a Philly? Probably, but here's my reasoning: Detroit has stunk until yesterday, they had to travel, Philly has been competitive. And that's it. Go Sixers!
76ers won by 11. Won $190.
Detroit continues to play poorly. Philly continues to be competitive. That' the way it's going right now.
Minnesota (+11.5) over Toronto. I think Minnesota keeps it close because Wiggins wants to win in Canada and the team wants Wiggins to win in Canada. Toronto is a much better team than the Wolves but that hasn't stopped the Raptors from playing disturbingly bad before.
Raptors won by 5. Won $190.
Much closer than it should have been. The Wolves are banged up, have 14 wins, and are on the road. If there's such thing as a poor win, this might have been one.
Portland (-2.5) over Miami. I'm calling the Heat win over Cleveland more of an aberration than a trend. This is a game that Portland needs to win (to be fair, same goes for Miami), and Portland is better.
Heat won by 4. Lost $100.
I watched this game. Classic Wade game. And it was delightful.
Boston (+7.0) over Oklahoma City. Everything tells me that OKC should dominate EXCEPT that nobody dominates the Celtics.
Thunder won by 4. Won $190.
Good win for the Thunder. Good for the Celtics (for me) for keeping it close
Chicago (-1.0) over Indiana. Indiana is weirdly competent and their coach really should be up for Coach of the Year (except that that's not how it works), but Chicago is better and should win.
Bulls won by 17. Won $190.
This was close until about 7 minutes left in the game. Then, in just a few possessions, it was double digits.
Dallas (-12.5) over Orlando. Magic played last night and Dallas is on the up and up. I like them to smoke Orlando.
Mavericks won by 5. Lost $100.
I guess the Mavs are still on the up and up. The should've won by more from a pure talent perspective.
San Antonio (-6.0) over Milwaukee. Odds 1.86. Both teams played last night but Milwaukee didn't get blasted in the media by their coach. Watch for the Spurs to come out with some fire.
Spurs won by 11. Won $190.
This was not looking good for me up until near the end. Though, the Spurs were mostly in control, how much in control was a question.
LA Clippers (-8.0) over Sacramento. Don't like this one but the Clippers are at least 8 points better than the Kings, even on a back-to-back.
Clippers won by 11. Won $190.
This one went down to the wire. Clippers had an 8 point lead with the ball with 23 seconds left. The result was a Turkoglu 3 and they won by 11. One of the only times I'll cheer for the Clippers.
Atlanta (+6.5) over Golden State. This is a standings pick. Golden State is fairly secure and are looking forward to the playoffs, I believe, and are missing Klay Thompson. Atlanta needs to keep winning.
Warriors won by 19. Lost $100.
Powerful win by the Warriors. They came to play. Both teams are pretty secure in their standing as it turns out. Atlanta is ahead of second seed Cleveland by 10 games and Golden State is up on second seed Memphis by 7.5.
Washington (+3.5) over Utah. I'm still holding to the "Utah is not that good" opinion, though my grip is getting weaker and weaker.
Wizards won by 4. Won $190.
Utah's defensive efficiency since the All-Star Break has been incredible. Their offense failed them in this one, though.
Results: Bets: $1100. Winnings: $1330. NET: +$230. Record: 7-4.
March Totals: NET: -$78. Record: 38-33-1
It doesn't take long to turn your fortunes around. Still in the hole but pretty close.
Four games tonight.
The Games 3/19 Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted.
Minnesota (+1.0 ) Over New York. In the battle of tankers, the Wolves don't suck enough.
Houston (-7.0) over Denver. Picking against Denver is so dangerous. They're not at home, though, and Houston is better?
New Orleans (-1.5) over Phoenix. Nether team is very consistent. Pbth who knows.
Utah (-4.5) over LA Lakers. I certainly trust Utah more than LA.
Wednesday, 18 March 2015
Winning Time. Picks 3/18
I love basketball. I think that's fairly obvious. I watched an ESPN 30 for 30 called "Winning Time: Reggie Miller vs the New York Knicks". It chronicles a couple of playoff series in the early 90s between Indiana and New York. They were brutally competitive and they hated each other. The teams were very similar in everything except where they came from (Indiana and New York are... different). There's something that basketball has that few other sports has. There's only 12 players on a roster, everyone plays offense and defense, and players can play almost the entire game.
What this adds up to is you get to know players and they get to know each other, for good or for ill. I would not be able to recognize half of the Vikings roster, even if I know their names. Stories are a large part of why we watch sports and there are a lot stories to be found in basketball.
Results from yesterday (spoilers, it's not that pretty)
Results 3/17
Memphis (-5.0) over Detroit. Detroit is kind of a train-wreck right now.
Pistons won by 10. Lost $100.
The Pistons got it together last night. Got hot in the second half for sure.
San Antonio (-14.5) over New York. New York stinks and the Spurs don't. I think the Spurs are putting it together.
Knicks won by 4 (OT). Lost $100.
Gregg Popovich tore his team apart for their performance, as well he should. They should have destroyed the Knicks and they didn't. Disappointing.
New Orleans (-7.5) over Milwaukee. I don't really like the Bucks right now. And the Pelicans are playing decently. I'll take that.
Pelicans won by 1. Lost $100.
Third loss in a row, that's what I get for trusting the Pelicans. The teams traded off good quarters and that's not what I needed to win.
Houston (-10.5) over Orlando. Houston should kill, we'll see if they do.
Rockets won by 13. Won $190.
Thank you Houston. This was a game they should've cruised in, and they did. Closing out the game in fourth.
Charlotte (+10.0) over LA Clippers. Gut (and I didn't want to take all favorites).
Clippers won by 7. Won $190.
Faulty reasoning for the win! The Hornets showed up for me and I'll take it.
Results: Bets: $500. Winnings: $380. NET: -$120. Record: 2-3.
March Totals: NET: -$308. Record: 31-29-1
Another stinker of a night, though I only lost once more than I won. This month certainly isn't over yet (just look at the calendar) but I'd love to build a bit of a cushion.
Big night, 11 games.
The Games 3/18 Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted.
Brooklyn (+11.5) over Cleveland. These two teams don't care for each other (or is it just Brooklyn not liking Lebron...?). This game could go either way. I actually think that Cleveland will roll but I'm just afraid enough of Brooklyn's inconsistency to try to sound like a genius when they keep it close-ish
Philadelphia (+2.0) over Detroit. Am I crazy for picking a Philly? Probably, but here's my reasoning: Detroit has stunk until yesterday, they had to travel, Philly has been competitive. And that's it. Go Sixers!
Minnesota (+11.5) over Toronto. I think Minnesota keeps it close because Wiggins wants to win in Canada and the team wants Wiggins to win in Canada. Toronto is a much better team than the Wolves but that hasn't stopped the Raptors from playing disturbingly bad before.
Portland (-2.5) over Miami. I'm calling the Heat win over Cleveland more of an aberration than a trend. This is a game that Portland needs to win (to be fair, same goes for Miami), and Portland is better.
Boston (+7.0) over Oklahoma City. Everything tells me that OKC should dominate EXCEPT that nobody dominates the Celtics.
Chicago (-1.0) over Indiana. Indiana is weirdly competent and their coach really should be up for Coach of the Year (except that that's not how it works), but Chicago is better and should win.
Dallas (-12.5) over Orlando. Magic played last night and Dallas is on the up and up. I like them to smoke Orlando.
San Antonio (-6.0) over Milwaukee. Odds 1.86. Both teams played last night but Milwaukee didn't get blasted in the media by their coach. Watch for the Spurs to come out with some fire.
LA Clippers (-8.0) over Sacramento. Don't like this one but the Clippers are at least 8 points better than the Kings, even on a back-to-back.
Atlanta (+6.5) over Golden State. This is a standings pick. Golden State is fairly secure and are looking forward to the playoffs, I believe, and are missing Klay Thompson. Atlanta needs to keep winning.
Washington (+3.5) over Utah. I'm still holding to the "Utah is not that good" opinion, though my grip is getting weaker and weaker.
This is an excellent chance to make up some ground.
Tuesday, 17 March 2015
Right into it. Picks 3/17
There's really no intro stuff today.
The games from yesterday.
Results 3/16
Portland (+2.0) over Washington. I'm betting on the Wizards not sustaining their excellent play.
Wizards won by 8. Lost $100.
Good win for Washington, maybe they're turning it around. One can hope.
Toronto (+5.0) over Indiana. Look, the Raptors have not played well. It's still surprising that Indiana is favored (by FIVE). Clearly there's some injury or something that I don't know about. It's my policy to bet not knowing the injury news, except if I already knew (not much of a policy, more like I'm lazy)
Raptors won by 19. Won $190.
The Raptors were in control (if not dominant) for most of the game. Good solid win for them (and for me)
Philadelphia (+9.0) over Boston. Odds: 1.86. Boston is always a good bet right now, but so is Philly. I think 9 points is a lot.
Celtics won by 19. Lost $100.
Boston was up by 20 after one quarter and they just played it even the rest of the way. I thought 9 was a lot for a spread (and it is for a game like this) but Boston continues their hot streak.
Brooklyn (-2.5) over Minnesota. This could be a game that Minnesota shows up for (KG revenge game?), but they're in full tank mode, it seems. Brooklyn could also dominate(Thad Young revenge game?). I'm going to guess that it will not be an entertaining one.
Nets won by 16. Won $190.
The Wolves are tanking (without trying to be obvious about it) and they only played with 8 active yesterday.
Cleveland (-3.5) over Miami. It'll be a fun game in Miami, Lebron's return and all. I just think Cleveland is better, and Lebron might go off.
Miami won by 14. Lost $100.
Surprising win by the Heat. They took it to the Cavs from the start
Denver (+9.0) over Memphis. I'm going to pay for picking the Nuggets. I don't like the spread.
Grizzlies won by 11. Lost $100.
Close pick. Denver only managed 18 in the first quarter so they started off rough.
Dallas (-4.5) over Oklahoma City. Dunno about this one. I hope that Dallas is building momentum for the playoffs.
Mavericks won by 4. Lost $100.
Grr. I think it was closer than it should have been, considering Durant and Ibaka were out. A win's a win and all, but Dallas should have been better.
Charlotte (+4.5) over Utah. Could go either way but I'll take the more talent.
Jazz won by 28. Lost $100.
Man, this game looks like it was ugly. Charlotte's point totals by quarter: 16, 14, 16, 20. Ugh. And Utah scored only 9 in the fourth.
Atlanta (-5.0) over Sacramento. Five points is not a lot for this offense against the league's worst defense since the All-Star break (or close to it anyway)
Hawks won by 7. Won $190.
Closer than I expected. Again, a win's a win but I expected Atlanta to win by more.
LA Lakers (+18.0) over Golden State. 18 points is so much!!! Normally I'd take Golden State anyway, but I don't know how much they're going to be in cruise control from here on out.
Warriors won by 3. Won $190.
It was close all game. And it seemed like Golden State dressed everyone (though Klay Thompson is now out for a while) so good for LA, I suppose.
Results: Bets: $1000. Winnings: $760. NET: -$240. Record: 4-6
March totals: NET: -$188. Record: 29-26-1
Well, it was fun while it lasted. At least I'm not as far in the hole.
5 games tonight.
The Games 3/17 Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted.
Memphis (-5.0) over Detroit. Detroit is kind of a train-wreck right now.
San Antonio (-14.5) over New York. New York stinks and the Spurs don't. I think the Spurs are putting it together.
New Orleans (-7.5) over Milwaukee. I don't really like the Bucks right now. And the Pelicans are playing decently. I'll take that.
Houston (-10.5) over Orlando. Houston should kill, we'll see if they do.
Charlotte (+10.0) over LA Clippers. Gut (and I didn't want to take all favorites).
March Madness technically starts tonight. Don't forget about the NBA though.
The games from yesterday.
Results 3/16
Portland (+2.0) over Washington. I'm betting on the Wizards not sustaining their excellent play.
Wizards won by 8. Lost $100.
Good win for Washington, maybe they're turning it around. One can hope.
Toronto (+5.0) over Indiana. Look, the Raptors have not played well. It's still surprising that Indiana is favored (by FIVE). Clearly there's some injury or something that I don't know about. It's my policy to bet not knowing the injury news, except if I already knew (not much of a policy, more like I'm lazy)
Raptors won by 19. Won $190.
The Raptors were in control (if not dominant) for most of the game. Good solid win for them (and for me)
Philadelphia (+9.0) over Boston. Odds: 1.86. Boston is always a good bet right now, but so is Philly. I think 9 points is a lot.
Celtics won by 19. Lost $100.
Boston was up by 20 after one quarter and they just played it even the rest of the way. I thought 9 was a lot for a spread (and it is for a game like this) but Boston continues their hot streak.
Brooklyn (-2.5) over Minnesota. This could be a game that Minnesota shows up for (KG revenge game?), but they're in full tank mode, it seems. Brooklyn could also dominate(Thad Young revenge game?). I'm going to guess that it will not be an entertaining one.
Nets won by 16. Won $190.
The Wolves are tanking (without trying to be obvious about it) and they only played with 8 active yesterday.
Cleveland (-3.5) over Miami. It'll be a fun game in Miami, Lebron's return and all. I just think Cleveland is better, and Lebron might go off.
Miami won by 14. Lost $100.
Surprising win by the Heat. They took it to the Cavs from the start
Denver (+9.0) over Memphis. I'm going to pay for picking the Nuggets. I don't like the spread.
Grizzlies won by 11. Lost $100.
Close pick. Denver only managed 18 in the first quarter so they started off rough.
Dallas (-4.5) over Oklahoma City. Dunno about this one. I hope that Dallas is building momentum for the playoffs.
Mavericks won by 4. Lost $100.
Grr. I think it was closer than it should have been, considering Durant and Ibaka were out. A win's a win and all, but Dallas should have been better.
Charlotte (+4.5) over Utah. Could go either way but I'll take the more talent.
Jazz won by 28. Lost $100.
Man, this game looks like it was ugly. Charlotte's point totals by quarter: 16, 14, 16, 20. Ugh. And Utah scored only 9 in the fourth.
Atlanta (-5.0) over Sacramento. Five points is not a lot for this offense against the league's worst defense since the All-Star break (or close to it anyway)
Hawks won by 7. Won $190.
Closer than I expected. Again, a win's a win but I expected Atlanta to win by more.
LA Lakers (+18.0) over Golden State. 18 points is so much!!! Normally I'd take Golden State anyway, but I don't know how much they're going to be in cruise control from here on out.
Warriors won by 3. Won $190.
It was close all game. And it seemed like Golden State dressed everyone (though Klay Thompson is now out for a while) so good for LA, I suppose.
Results: Bets: $1000. Winnings: $760. NET: -$240. Record: 4-6
March totals: NET: -$188. Record: 29-26-1
Well, it was fun while it lasted. At least I'm not as far in the hole.
5 games tonight.
The Games 3/17 Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted.
Memphis (-5.0) over Detroit. Detroit is kind of a train-wreck right now.
San Antonio (-14.5) over New York. New York stinks and the Spurs don't. I think the Spurs are putting it together.
New Orleans (-7.5) over Milwaukee. I don't really like the Bucks right now. And the Pelicans are playing decently. I'll take that.
Houston (-10.5) over Orlando. Houston should kill, we'll see if they do.
Charlotte (+10.0) over LA Clippers. Gut (and I didn't want to take all favorites).
March Madness technically starts tonight. Don't forget about the NBA though.
Monday, 16 March 2015
March Madness. Picks 3/16
I filled out my March Madness bracket today. This is not particularly interesting seeing as how March Madness starts this week. I love March Madness. It's very fun and extremely exciting. I realized, however, that filling out brackets, while I enjoy the competition, is not what I enjoy about March Madness. There is one thing that March Madness has that no other sports spectacle has. The Madness that gives it its name.
The upsets.
And I'm not really talking about the 9 seed beating the 8 seed by 12. I'm talking the improbable 12 seed going to the Final Four. And you know there will be some real close games in there. I love it when the 15 seed beats the 2, even if I had that 2 seed winning the championship. Because it's all about the story. I really don't care who wins the National Championship. I don't think Oregon is going to do it this year (spoilers on my brackets). What I will remember, if anything, are the close games, the buzzer beaters, the upsets. And in college sports (especially basketball), the players are not fantastic. Most of them won't go to the NBA. And belief, coupled with opportunity and "getting hot" goes a long way with kids playing a game. Yes, there is a large talent disparity between the best and worst teams in the tournament. But there are 72 teams, 36 games in the first round (two rounds technically) alone, there is not a huge talent gap in all of them. And for others, belief, opportunity, and "getting hot" will make up the difference.
Results 3/13
Chicago (+1.0) over Charlotte. This Bulls team is scrappy and Charlotte is a team that can made to play poorly.
Hornets won by 10. Lost $100.
Good win for Charlotte. We'll have to see how the last few weeks of the season go.
Philadelphia (+4.0) over Sacramento. I think a lot of this pick has to do with underestimation of opponent. It's a real thing and I could see Sacramento taking Philly lightly and being surprised.
76ers won by 7. Won $190.
Philly is scrappy and a decent bet many days. They don't get blown out and the Kings have played fairly poorly in recent weeks.
Toronto (-5.0) over Miami. This game will be decided by the big guys in the middle. Whiteside vs Jonas (not spelling his last name) will determine if a team will have second chances or not. I don't think Jonas is a great rebounder, but Whiteside is. The rest of Miami is weaker than Toronto, but if you give them two (or three) chances to make a shot, the talent gap can be bridged.
Raptors won by 10. Won $190.
Toronto needed this win. Miami is weak-ish right now, but they are still a team that needs to be taken seriously. Good win.
Boston (-5.5) over Orlando. Boston is just a good pick right now.
Celtics won by 7. Won $190.
The Celtics continue to play well. There's no shame to losing by 7 to them, and Orlando's future is bright. The Magic just have to keep on keeping on.
Oklahoma City (-10.0) over Minnesota. I honestly can't tell if the Wolves are tanking or not, it certainly seems like it sometimes but other times.... It seems as though they go for it for three quarters and then Flip decides whether they can win or not. If yes, stay the course. If not, the best players suddenly get pulled because of soreness or something. A fine strategy at this stage, not a good one if the team actually wants to win.
Thunder won by 14. Won $190.
The Wolves continue to lose, which is good...? The Thunder rested a few guys and still won by 14.
LA Clippers (+2.5) over Dallas. Odds: 1.95. Mere days after getting called out by Amare, will Dallas respond? The Clippers are pretty good, they should win.
Mavericks won by 30. Lost $100.
Wow blowout. I guess the team responded. The Mavericks have been playing poorly and it could just take a win like this to turn them around.
Golden State (-6.5) over Denver. Interesting that the spread is so low. Granted, it's in Denver (so, elevation) and Denver has been playing very well while the Warriors have been meh (for them), but the spread would have been 12 points not that long ago.
Nuggets won by 11. Lost $100.
Before you freak out. The Warriors rested 4 of their top players (Curry, Thompson, Iguodala, and Bogut) and another (Speights) was suspended one game. That explains why the spread was so low.
Atlanta (-6.0) over Phoenix. Another case of a really good team playing a merely good team on the road with an enticing line. I'm taking Atlanta but I don't know how I feel about my chances.
Hawks won by 9. Won $190.
Good win for the Hawks against a decent team on the road (a West team no less). Not sure how much to take away from this.
Portland (-8.5) over Detroit. Detroit is playing depressingly poor right now. It's unfortunate that I'm going to probably have to type Trail Blazers (Trailblazers?) again.
Trailblazers won by 19. Won $190.
The Pistons stink. I don't know if it's that simple but it seems to be.
Totals: Bets: $900. Winnings: $1140. NET: +$240 Record: 6-3.
March Totals: NET: +$52. Record: 25-20-1
In the positives. Feels so good. I hope none of you are betting along.
The first night in a bit that I've played from a positive standing. 10 games today big night. Likely means the rationale will be cut short.
The Games 3/16 Odds are 1.90 unless otherwise noted
Portland (+2.0) over Washington. I'm betting on the Wizards not sustaining their excellent play.
Toronto (+5.0) over Indiana. Look, the Raptors have not played well. It's still surprising that Indiana is favored (by FIVE). Clearly there's some injury or something that I don't know about. It's my policy to bet not knowing the injury news, except if I already knew (not much of a policy, more like I'm lazy)
Philadelphia (+9.0) over Boston. Odds: 1.86. Boston is always a good bet right now, but so is Philly. I think 9 points is a lot.
Brooklyn (-2.5) over Minnesota. This could be a game that Minnesota shows up for (KG revenge game?), but they're in full tank mode, it seems. Brooklyn could also dominate(Thad Young revenge game?). I'm going to guess that it will not be an entertaining one.
Cleveland (-3.5) over Miami. It'll be a fun game in Miami, Lebron's return and all. I just think Cleveland is better, and Lebron might go off.
Denver (+9.0) over Memphis. I'm going to pay for picking the Nuggets. I don't like the spread.
Dallas (-4.5) over Oklahoma City. Dunno about this one. I hope that Dallas is building momentum for the playoffs.
Charlotte (+4.5) over Utah. Could go either way but I'll take the more talent.
Atlanta (-5.0) over Sacramento. Five points is not a lot for this offense against the league's worst defense since the All-Star break (or close to it anyway)
LA Lakers (+18.0) over Golden State. 18 points is so much!!! Normally I'd take Golden State anyway, but I don't know how much they're going to be in cruise control from here on out.
Lots of underdogs today (6/10). Which will make it easy if they win. I'd enjoy watching Cleveland/Miami and Dallas/OKC. Brooklyn/Minny could be ugly and (if both teams play typically) Atlanta/Sacramento could be hilarious. Could be.
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