World Junior Hockey and me

The World Junior Hockey Championship is here. This is the time of the year that Canadians (the only country I can really speak about) wait longingly for. Pinning all their hopes and dreams and national pride onto kids who can't buy a beer in a state yet.

Warning: Hyperbole ahead

It's all so ludicrous. Kids shouldn't have that much pressure on them, they should enjoy themselves have fun playing in a hyper-competitive hockey tournament against people who are also hyper skilled and motivated. They shouldn't be worried about the whims of a crazy dedicated fan base or whether or not this makes or breaks their chances of getting drafted into the NHL. It's a travesty how much pressure is put on these kids.

Except, that sounds a lot like college sports

Disclaimer: This will be the 8th World Juniors that I have lived in Canada for. I believe I watched once with actual interest. I want to be into the World Juniors because I enjoy hockey so much, but I have really been unable to thus far. I also love college sports. So bear those in mind.

American collegiate athletics have a lot in common with the World Juniors. Young men playing their chosen sport against other young men with the weight of a devoted fanbase thrust upon their shoulders. Their performance will likely have implications on their future as a professional player of their chosen sport. Also, these are often individuals who have rarely known failure in athletics, which is why a large portion of the narrative is psychological, "how do they deal with adversity" type stuff.
Overall, the two situations seem quite similar.

But here's a large difference in my mind. College sports get a season. These players rise up from the obscurity of a high school you've never heard of, play for 15 weeks with guys they've never met or however long the season goes and then go to the NFL and/or fade back into obscurity or come back the next season and do it again. In those weeks, they are expected to grow as a team and win as many games as possible, by the end of the season, they know each other and usually play much better than at the start when they were getting to know each other.

World Junior players (specifically Canadian ones) rise from the relative obscurity (not talking about McDavid here) of a junior team you kind of have heard of, play for a week and a half with guys they've never met, and then go back to their junior team and relative obscurity until they go to the NHL and/or come back the next year. In that week and a half, they are expected to grow as a team and (in Canada's case) win every single game by double digits (hyperbole!!). By the end of the tournament, they probably play better than at the start, but it's nearly impossible to strictly judge a player's performance in the team sense.

I've been told that I don't care for the World Juniors because I'm American and my team isn't as good as the Canadian team. Well, I'm also Canadian so I cheer for them as well, and the American's have done nearly as good or better than the Canadians for the last few years, so I'm not sure that argument holds water.

I think that it has a lot more to do with the media and coverage of the event. Canadian television and sports personalities become consumed by it and I tire of the overexposure. There exists a lot of arrogance in Canada about hockey, not all of it unfounded, mind you, and that colors their perception of how things should play out. I won't talk in detail about my opinions on that, but the Cliff's Notes version is that the ice hockey world is too balanced, there are too many good teams that it is unrealistic to be disappointed with anything less than Gold. Canada is not so far ahead of everyone else that we can expect to win every time. Expected to compete is different and Canada should expect that, but when these kids (all under 20 years old) are talked about as failing for getting second place, it's a little ridiculous.

Does this happen in college sports as well? Absolutely, but I would argue that, over the course of the season, expectations can change once it becomes more apparent just how good the team actually is. There is no recalibration period in the World Juniors.

The US and Canada are previewed to be the best two teams in the tournament, which means that Canada should cruise because the "US shouldn't ever beat Canada" (until it happens, a not-that-rare occurrence) and because the "US doesn't even care about hockey" (that's the arrogance talking).

So far, this has been a lot of World Juniors bashing. The reason for this is due to the fact that I haven't had much interest in it. But there are positives as well. It gives a chance for hyper-skilled players to peddle their wares against quality competition instead of running roughshod over guys who don't have a chance of turning pro. It gives fans an opportunity to watch guys their teams drafted (or could draft) and see how they stack up. It's more hockey.
I don't have as much to say about the good stuff because a lot of comes with caveats I mentioned earlier.

I hope to watch with a bit more interest this year and I hope it's a Canada-USA final and I hope that the US takes it (shhhh...)
Enjoy the tournament

Downhill. Results from 12/25

I have decided that I will only do picks posts when I feel like it. That is to say, not on weekends specifically, because the likelihood of me following through on that and picking games every single day will eventually prove to be too difficult, as a result, I will not pick games today.

Here are the results from yesterday's Christmas day games

NY Knicks (+5.0) over WAS Wizards. Odds: 1.90
Wizards won by 11. Lost $100

OKC Thunder (+5.5) over SA Spurs. Odds: 1.90
Thunder won by 8. Won $190

CLE Cavaliers (-6.0) over MIA Heat. Odds: 1.90
Heat won by 10. Lost $100

LA Lakers (+10.5) over CHI Bulls. Odds: 1.90
Bulls won by 20. Lost $100




GS Warriors (-1.5) over LA Clippers. Odds: 1.90
Clippers won by 14. Lost $100

Bets: $500. Winnings: $190. NET: -$310

TOTAL: -$34

Losing money now. Good thing it's all fake. 

One thing I'll note about today's games.
I'm glad the Timberwolves are playing again. I don't usually expect them to win, but I'm interested to see how they come back after the break. Hopefully the new guy can play and contribute a bit. The Nuggets are a team they can beat, though they likely won't, simply because Denver is super inconsistent still.
Here's hoping Anthony Bennett bounces back and Ricky Rubio returns soon.

Christmas Time is Here. Picks 12/25

Merry Christmas to all who celebrate it, and since I celebrate it, I wish you a good one.

I'll make this quick so I focus on holiday fun-times.

The Results

BOS Celtics (+2.0) over ORL Magic. Odds:1.90

Magic win by 5. Lost $100

WAS Wizards (-3.0) over CHI Bulls. Odds: 1.90
Bulls won by 8. Lost $100

CLE Cavaliers (-13.5) over MIN Timberwolves. Odds: 1.90
Cavaliers won by 21. Won $190

NO Pelicans (-1.0) over IND Pacers. Odds: 1.86
Pacers won by 12. Lost $100

BKN Nets (-2.0) over DEN Nuggets. Odds: 1.90
Nets won by 6. Won $190

ATL Hawks (-1.5) over LA Clippers. Odds: 1.90
Hawks won by 3. Won $190

PHI 76ers (+8.0) over MIA Heat. Odds: 1.90
76ers won by 4. Won $190

MIL Bucks (-5.5) over CHA Hornets. Odds: 1.90
Charlotte won by 7. Lost $100

OKC Thunder (-6.0) over POR Trail Blazers. Odds: 1.90
Trail Blazers won by 4. Lost $100

DAL Mavericks (+1.0) over PHX Suns. Odds: 1.90
Suns won by 9. Lost $100

GS Warriors (-8.5) over LA Lakers. Odds: 1.90
Lakers won by 10. Lost $100.

Results: Bets: $1100. Winnings: $570. NET: -$530

That's why I use fake money!!

OVERALL: $276

The Games 12/25
NY Knicks (+5.0) over WAS Wizards. Odds: 1.90

OKC Thunder (+5.5) over SA Spurs. Odds: 1.90

CLE Cavaliers (-6.0) over MIA Heat. Odds: 1.90

LA Lakers (+10.5) over CHI Bulls. Odds: 1.90

GS Warriors (-1.5) over LA Clippers. Odds: 1.90

Fingers crossed today will be better

This is better. Picks 12/23

I had a much better day of picks yesterday. Without further ado, the recap.

CHA Hornets (-2.5) over DEN Nuggets. Odds: 1.90
Hornets won by 28. Won $190

HOU Rockets (-3.5) over POR Trail Blazers. Odds: 1.90
Rockets won by 15. Won $190

CHI Bulls (-4.5) over TOR Raptors. Odds: 1.95
Bulls won by 9. Won $195

UTA Jazz (+9.0) over MEM Grizzlies. Odds: 1.90
Utah won by 6. Won $190

ATL Hawks (+4.5) over DAL Mavericks. Odds: 1.95
Hawks won by 3. Won $195

SA Spurs (+1.0) over LA Clippers. Odds: 1.90
Spurs won by 7. Won $190

GS Warriors (-11.0) over SAC Kings. Odds: 1.90
Warriors won by 20. Won $190

RESULTS: Bets: $700. Winnings: $1150    NET: $450
Totals: $806


Nailed each game! Very exciting. I'm approaching having $1000 more fake dollars than when I started.

Quickly, here are today's games, with few reasons given.

BOS Celtics (+2.0) over ORL Magic. Brad Stevens vs Jacque Vaughn. Odds:1.90

WAS Wizards (-3.0) over CHI Bulls. John Wall, maybe that's enough? Odds: 1.90

CLE Cavaliers (-13.5) over MIN Timberwolves. Always bet against the Wolves. Odds: 1.90

NO Pelicans (-1.0) over IND Pacers. Pelicans are better. Odds: 1.86

BKN Nets (-2.0) over DEN Nuggets. Nuggets played yesterday. Odds: 1.90

ATL Hawks (-1.5) over LA Clippers. Hawks are rolling. Odds: 1.90

PHI 76ers (+8.0) over MIA Heat. 76ers keep it close. Odds: 1.90

MIL Bucks (-5.5) over CHA Hornets. Don't like it, Hornets rolling but played yesterday. Odds: 1.90

OKC Thunder (-6.0) over POR Trail Blazers. No Durant but going gut on this one. Odds: 1.90

DAL Mavericks (+1.0) over PHX Suns. Mavs are better despite playing yesterday and traveling. Odds: 1.90

GS Warriors (-8.5) over LA Lakers. Warriors are much better than Lakers. Odds: 1.90

Where the magic died. Picks 12/22

It was a good run. A couple of days of successful picking and I was feeling pretty good about myself. I came back down to Earth a bit yesterday.

Results

TOR (-12.5) over NYK.  Odds: 1.90
Toronto won by 10. Lost $100

MEM (+4.5) over CLE.  Odds: 1.95
Cavaliers won by 14. Lost $100

MIA (-1.5) over BOS.  Odds: 1.90
Heat won by 16. Won $190

DET (+2.0) over BKN.  Odds: 1.90
Nets won by 5. Lost $100



SAC (-7.5) over LAL.  Odds:1.90
Kings won by 7. Lost $100

PHI (+9.0) over ORL. Odds: 1.90
76ers won by 8. Won $190

WAS (-6.0) over PHX.  Odds: 1.90
Suns won by 12. Lost $100

IND (-3.5) over MIN.  Odds: 1.90
Pacers won by 4. Won $190

NO (+8.0) over OKC.  Odds: 1.90
Pelicans won by 2. Won $190

So I realized that the way I've been doing it may be somewhat confusing. The important thing to note is that when I make each bet, I'm putting in a fictional $100. Meaning that when I "win $190", I'm actually winning by bet back ($100) plus an extra $90. So when I give my totals, there's always the caveat that the actual profit is different from the winning. It's less that the losses take away from the total and more that the losses mean I don't win.

Daily total: Bets: $900    Losses: $500   Winnings: $760    NET: -$140

So I won $140 less than I put in. My first day in the negative.

12/19: Bets: $900    Winnings: $1136    NET: +$236
12/20: Bets: $700    Winnings: 960        NET: +$260

TOTAL: $356

The Games 12/22

CHA Hornets (-2.5) over DEN Nuggets. Despite the previous win over Indiana, this Denver team does not give a lot confidence. I think Charlotte handles them. And they don't have to win by a lot to win the bet. Odds: 1.90

HOU Rockets (-3.5) over POR Trail Blazers. Gut feeling on this one (that did NOT help me yesterday). Rockets are at home, Dwight is getting better, Portland is overachieving in my opinion, and Corey BREWER will probably go for 75 or something today. Odds: 1.90

CHI Bulls (-4.5) over TOR Raptors. Toronto played yesterday (albeit early) then had to travel to Chicago to play today. Toronto does not have that much experience playing on the road and a "healthy as can be" Derrick Rose will be a tough matchup for Lowry. Odds: 1.95

UTA Jazz (+9.0) over MEM Grizzlies. The Grizzlies have burned me the last couple days, so now I bet against them. I think they win but the Jazz prevent it from getting out of hand. Odds: 1.90

ATL Hawks (+4.5) over DAL Mavericks. I really want to take Dallas, I do. But the Hawks are on a roll and the Mavs are trying to implement a new critical piece. Odds: 1.95

SA Spurs (+1.0) over LA Clippers. Practically a pick-em, the Spurs are fielding a mostly full roster and the Clippers haven't exactly been world beaters this year, particularly on the road. I just like the Spurs. Odds: 1.90

GS Warriors (-11.0) over SAC Kings. Huge line but the Oracle will be roaring and the Warriors are the best team in basketball at the moment while Sacramento is good (usually) not great and they also played yesterday. This is set up to be a blow out. Odds: 1.90

Timberwolves Trade Corey Brewer, Continue to Get Younger and Upsidier (?)

The Timberwolves recently traded one of their veterans. Corey Brewer was originally drafted by the Wolves, traded away, found success and returned as the Wolves attempted to push toward a playoff spot. The playoff dream has fallen through and now Brewer is gone again, to the Rockets where he will likely be part of the rotation for a definite playoff team.

Brewer was always an interesting fit in Minnesota. For the most part, you knew what you were getting with him, even if that was consistent inconsistency. He was always due for steals and a smile but his dribbling was erratic and 3-point shooting suspect. His defense has always been his calling card but he got exposed in Minnesota, still getting steals but unable to float and be as opportunistic as he would prefer. He did score 51 in a game, but he was not a scorer.

He was valuable as a veteran, there are so many young players on this team that he could find a spot as a mentor, but he also took minutes away from players who could improve drastically if given a chance to play. This team is not playoff-bound and so Brewer's win-loss value is limited. He's too good to bench but not good enough to carry the team. I've always enjoyed Brewer, but I'm glad he's been moved to give younger guys a chance. I'm even happier that he's gone to a team in which he will hopefully thrive.

On the same day, Ronny Turiaf was also traded to the Philadelphia 76ers. He is out for the season after having surgery and will likely be waived. I have followed Turiaf since he played at Gonzaga and he's a fascinating individual and I would encourage you to look him up if you don't know his story. I hope he returns to the Wolves in a non-player capacity. He's an infectious personality and great teammate who can't seem to stick anywhere.

Alexey Shved went to Houston from Philly. I hope playing on a winner allows him to develop into an effective player.

Coming back to the Wolves is one player and two picks.

The picks are both second rounders, one for 2015 and one for 2016. Both are protected though both are still likely to be conveyed, as far as things like this can be predicted. The Wolves have recently failed to take advantage of their second round picks and it's encouraging that they obtained two from this deal. Solid professionals are being found all around the draft these days and I believe that the accumulation and development is the key for success. This is especially true for teams like the Timberwolves who have struggled for so long and don't have much franchise or location appeal for free agents. Until we have a LeBron-type player come out of Minneapolis, this is how they'll have to do it.

The player is Troy Daniels, who I know very little about but is apparently prolific from 3. Hopefully he can develop into a 3 point specialist for the Wolves, something that has been sorely lacking in recent years (aside from Kevin Love, of course).

Overall, I like this move for the Wolves. It is definitely one that has eyes toward the future and maybe one that necessitates the development of a single-affiliation D-League team. In the meantime, however, the team got worse, but context and big picture is always necessary when discussing moves involving a team in this stage of development.

Picks for December 21, 2012

I missed yesterday but I still made picks. You'll just have to take my word for it that I made them before the games actually started.

Since I didn't explain how it works in the last post, I'll do that here.
Each game has a line. To take an example from Friday, CHA (-4.5) and PHI.
This asks the following question: If CHA started the game losing by 4.5 points and everything else played out the exact same, who would win the game. Odds (maybe not the correct word, I'm not a gambler) are usually 1.90. This means that on a correct bet of $100, I would get $190.

The Results 12/19

CHA Hornets (-4.5) over PHI 76ers. Odds:1.90.
Hornets win by 18. Won $190

UTA Jazz (+4.0) over ORL Magic. Odds: 1.86
Jazz won by 7. Won $186

CLE Cavaliers (-11.5) over BKN Nets. Odds: 1.86
Cavs won by 4. Lost $100

BOS Celtics (-6.0) over MIN Timberwolves. Odds: 1.90
Celtics won by 16. Won $190

TOR Raptors (-7.5) over DET Pistons. Odds: 1.9
Raptors won by 10. Won $190.

MEM Grizzlies (-6.0) over CHI Bulls. Odds: 1.90
Chicago won by 6. Lost $100

POR Trail Blazers (+4.5) over SA Spurs. Odds: 1.90
Trail Blazers won by 10. Won $190

LA Clippers (-3.5) over DEN Nuggets. Odds: 1.90
Nuggets won by 3. Lost $100.

LA Lakers (+6.0) over OKC Thunder. Odds: 1.90.
Thunder won by 1. Won $190

Total: +836

I had to double check a couple lines today since some of them didn't make any sense, the Lakers being favored by 6 for example. Turns out that it was a typo that made me win! Yay.
I also forgot to pick the Wizards-Heat game.


Games 12/20
PHX Suns (-6.5) over NY Knicks. Odds: 1.95
Suns won by 9. Won $195

POR Trail Blazers (+5.5) over NO Pelicans. Odds: 1.90
Trail Blazers won by 26. Won $190

Utah Jazz (+4.5) over CHA Hornets. Odds: 1.90
Hornets won by 18. Lost $100

ATL Hawks (+5.0) over HOU Rockets. Odds: 1.95
Hawks won by 7. Won $195

DAL Mavericks (-11.0) over SA Spurs. Odds: 1.95
Mavericks won by 6. Lost $100.

IND Pacers (+3.5) over DEN Nuggets. Odds: 1.90
Nuggets won by 3. Won $190

Milwaukee (+10.0) over LA Clippers. Odds: 1.90
Clippers won by 4. Won $190

Total: +$760

Overall: +$1596


Picks 12/21

TOR (-12.5) over NYK. The Knicks have been competitive but I trust the Raptors at home more than maybe having a decent game from the Knicks. Odds: 1.90

MEM (+4.5) over CLE. I don't trust Cleveland right now and Memphis has been good. It might be a really close game but I like Memphis more than Cleveland. Odds: 1.95

MIA (-1.5) over BOS. Boston is still figuring out life after Rondo and I think Miami is just better. Odds: 1.90

DET (+2.0) over BKN. I don't like this one. I went with my gut. I don't know. Odds: 1.90

SAC (-7.5) over LAL. I also don't like this one. I don't like the line or the Lakers. so I'm taking Sacramento. Odds:1.90

PHI (+9.0) over ORL. I like Philly to keep it close. No other reason. Odds: 1.90

WAS (-6.0) over PHX. Phoenix is all the way across the country and are inconsistent. Washington is no slouch. Odds: 1.90

IND (-3.5) over MIN. I will continue to bet against my favorite team. Odds: 1.90

NO (+8.0) over OKC. I don't think New Orleans will get blown out. Odds: 1.90

I don't feel confident about these picks at all. We shall see. And, in the end, it's fake money.

Take One

A blog talking about sports. I make NBA picks based on the lines provided and then I lose. I also talk about news, specifically my favorite teams which include the Minnesota Vikings, Timberwolves, and Twins, Calgary Flames, University of Oregon Ducks, and Chelsea FC.

The Games 12/19  Lines and odds by bet365

CHA Hornets (-4.5) over PHI 76ers. Odds:1.9

UTA Jazz (+4.0) over ORL Magic. Odds: 1.86

CLE Cavaliers (-11.5) over BKN Nets. Home court and LeBron and opponent means Cavs roll. Odds: 1.86

BOS Celtics (-6.0) over MIN Timberwolves. Both traded point guards recently, but the Celtics are the only team in the game that will definitely have a point guard actually play (Mo Williams may or may not play, questionable with back spasms, Zach Lavine may or may not actually be a point guard). Odds: 1.90

TOR Raptors (-7.5) over DET Pistons. Raptors are good, Pistons are not. Odds: 1.9

MEM Grizzlies (-6.0) over CHI Bulls. Chicago is on a back to back and Memphis is rolling.
Odds: 1.90

POR Trail Blazers (+4.5) over SA Spurs. Spurs don't always care about regular season games. I think this may be one of them. Odds: 1.90

LA Clippers (-3.5) over DEN Nuggets. Clippers are playing well and Denver isn't . Nuggets could come out strong but you can't count on them. Odds: 1.90

LA Lakers (-6.0) over OKC Thunder. My risky call. OKC played a tough game last night in San Francisco and had to travel, plus no Durant. Perhaps LAL keeps it close.

Those are my picks. I lost my first draft unfortunately so that's why this is so concise.